Mini-TL: Minor Parties, Minor Success Stories - A Modern British TL

This isn't a big TL, and isn't very important or special in any way really. But recently I've grown interested in smaller parties, and how they could be more successful. This this TL will focus on the EU election of 2009, the local elections from 2006 until the recent day and finally I will look at the 2010 General Election. Along the way I will note things that in the TL are different even in major parties that may allow for smaller parties to become more electable, and sometimes I'll even just 'tweak' votes (which will be important in the EU election). Anyway I hope you find this a little interesting at most :) I will be focussing on UKIP as I believe they have the most potential, though I will look at other minor parties as well. It's not going to be a big beginning, though hopefully I'll pick it up slightly as I go along.
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Preface: The General Election of 2005

In the General Election of 2005, the main parties obviously still got the overwhelming majority of seats. But around the county obvious signs of movement away from the main parties were beginning to show, though in the First Past the Post system this didn't show itself in the Commons. There were a few exceptions to this though.

For example the relatively new party of 'Respect' managed to gain two seats in the Commons. One of which was held by George Galloway, the other being held by the party leader Salma Yaqoob. Thus Labour had lost two seats to a minor party, which gave some of the numerous other minor parties some hope. While in Barking, Richard Barnbrook (the BNP candidate) managed to come second with 18.4% of the vote, though Labour still had a large majority in the constituency.
 
Part One: A Change of Leadership, A Change in Localities

In 2006 the 'United Kingdom Independence Party' had a leadership election, due to Roger Knapman stepping down as party leader. Nigel Farage was the winner, while Richard Suchorzewski came second with 28.5% of the vote. And in third place was David Campbell-Bannerman with just 9% of the vote.[1] After Farage took over leadership of UKIP he immediately started working with Suchorzewski, who he made 'deputy leader'.[2] Farage wanted the party to broaden its policies further than just euro-scepticism, as he believed this was the main cause for a lack of parliamentary seats in 2005 even though they collected around half-a-million votes. Suchorzewski on the other hand wanted the party itself to be more democratic, he argued the need for "governing committee who would liaise with members on policy initiatives". Farage agreed with this, and he believed that "in order to be taken seriously, we need to take our members seriously". The idea of 'internal democracy' in fact became so great that talks began of a possible 'Shadow Cabinet' within UKIP, even though at the time there were no UKIP MP's or Peers. Though this idea wasn't going to actually become realty for a good few years.

In 2006 the Local Election were held throughout the UK. UKIP, the BNP and Respect all began and continued to be very ambitious during the run-up to the election. The election itself was a close one in many places, especially with UKIP, the BNP and Respect candidates. After the election had ended and results were coming through some were a little shocking for the main parties. UKIP had gained 6 councilors, compared to the previous years in which they took none and actually lost their only councilor. Respect gained 20 councilors, taking their total number up to 23. But the most shocking result of all was the BNPs result, who gained 35 seats. This brought their overall total up to 40 councilors.



[1] - In OTL Richard Suchorzewski gained a few less percentage points.
[2] - IOTL David Campbell-Bannerman was made deputy leader, but now that Suchorzewski has more votes, Farage works with him due to his larger popularity and Bannerman's decreased popularity
 
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Interesting idea :)

UKIP adopting a more "professional" organization could boost its image to disillusioned ex Conservatives, especially if David Cameron is still leader in this TL.

If either Liam Fox or David Davis ends up as Tory leader, UKIP could very well falters ...
 
Part Two: How A Leader Caused Disruption, And A Rather Younger Leader...

In 2005 David Cameron stood in a leadership election to take over from Michael Howard who had been unsuccessful in ousting Labour from parliament in the 2005 General Election. David Davis, David Cameron's own friend George Osbourne, Liam Fox and Theresa May all contested for the leadership of the Conservative party. They each had certain supporters from the party itself, though notably Kenneth Clarke backed David Cameron. In the first ballot Theresa May is knocked out from the competition, in the second round Liam Fox is eliminated also. Now there were three candidates left, of whom two were similar in their political outlooks and of the same age, while the other was a possible "unifying force" to the Conservative party (Davis). In the third ballot David Davis was knocked out by just one vote, making many MPs remember back to 2001 with Michael Portillo. Finally the fight came down to the members votes, of two candidates who were extremely similar in many ways. This made the final results almost too close to count, though they managed it. Finally the votes were counted up and the results came through, David Cameron had won the leadership election by just 250 votes.

Though both Cameron and Osbourne were still friends, there was a slight undercurrent of rivalry still even after the results were made. Osbourne still hoped to get a high up cabinet position, though due to Ken Clarke's support of Cameron he made him the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. Osbourne in fact was quite far down the cabinet listing, he had only made it to Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.[Full list of changes to OTL Opposition Cabinet given below] After Cameron became Shadow Leader of the Opposition, the Conservative Party shook a little, especially with the raising of pro-Europe Ken Clarke to the being the Chancellor. This along with the more centre-right views of Cameron pushed a lot of previous Conservative members/supporters to UKIP, this would increase in the future also as UKIP became more 'professional'.

While in 2006, the Liberal Democrats faced a problem. Charles Kennedy had stepped down as leader of the Lib Dems due to drinking problems, and thus a leadership election was called. The main three runners were Menzies Campbell, Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne.[3] The election was again a slim one, though in the end Hughes was knocked out and it was between Huhne and Campbell. In the final votes counted, Huhne had won the election by around a thousand votes.


[3] - In this TL, Mark Oaten, Lembit Öpik and the various other supporters of Oaten IOTL instead support Huhne. Thus helping him win the election.
 
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Differences in TL Conservative Shadow Cabinet: 2005

  • Chancellor of the Exchequer: Kenneth Clarke
  • Secretary of State for Work and Pensions: Oliver Letwin
  • Chief Secretary to the Treasury: George Osbourne
 
Part Three: A Time Of Formalities

In January 2007 Lords Pearson and Lord Willoughby de Broke defected from the Conservative party to UKIP. This allowed for UKIP to not only have representation in the EU parliament and local councils, but now had two representatives in the Upper House of Westminster. This increased UKIP’s power in the running of the country only slightly, but enough to convince Deputy Leader Richard Suchorzewski that UKIP could now effectively set up a fourth 'Shadow Cabinet'. Him and Nigel Farage held large debates on the matter for around a week or so before the final decision was made. The shadow cabinet would be set up in order to make the party seem more formal. Though members of the party would take up all governmental positions, some of the most important positions would be.[Full list of Cabinet given below] Soon after the creation of the ‘shadow cabinet’ there was a shift in public opinion in UKIP, a party which had previously been thought of as a single-issue party was now a party with a range of policies and now their own cabinet. This was shown notably in the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election in May of 2006. Nigel Farage stood for UKIP and gained 12% of the vote, the highest he’d ever gotten as a UKIP candidate, Bob Neill won the election with 38% of the vote. This almost helped prove that UKIP had changed, and so helped them gain more votes in future elections.

In the 2007 local elections UKIP managed to gain another 10 councilors, though they lost one in the process, bringing their total up to 16. The BNP kept their councilors and their numbers didn’t increase, while Respect gained another 10 bringing their total to 33. Around the country people beginning to comment on how they are "awakening to the fact that there really are other choices", as one man put it.

In June Tony Blair resigns as Prime Minister, and in the constituency of Sedgefield he stood down as an MP. In the following by-election Respect, UKIP and the BNP all stood candidates as well as other minor parties (including the Green party). The BNP gets 13% of the vote, the highest they gained since 2005 in Barking. UKIP managed to patch together 6% of the vote, while Respect managed to gather 10% of the vote. This result stunned the candidate at Sedgefield, who still managed to get elected though only on a majority of 5% in what had previously been a safe Labour seat, it seemed that minor parties had shown that no seat was truly a 'safe' one.
 
UKIPs 'Shadow Cabinet'​

  • Leader of Party: Nigel Farage
  • Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer: David Campbell Bannerman
  • Shadow Foreign Secretary: Richard Suchorzewski
  • Shadow Home Secretary: Stuart Agnew
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Defence: Gerard Batten
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills: William Legge
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change: Derek Clark
  • Shadow Secretary of State for Wales: John Bufton
 
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