Ming Empire survives?

Before the mini Ice Age in the 17th century, consequent famines, loss of the Mandate of Heaven by the Ming, and Manchu takeover, the Ming were well on their way to an all-gunpowder army.

So basically, WI the Ming get through the famine well, restoring credibility with the general population, and fight off the Manchu? How does Europe react to a Chinese army armed much the same way as they are?
 
I don't know a whole lot about Ming era technology, but was the quality of the Chinese firearms comparable to the Western ones? I've only seen a few drawings and diagrams of Ming cannons and such, but they really don't look quite as sophisticated as what the Euros had around the same time.

And if we assume that Euro-Ming relations stay low key until the 18th century, then Ming weapons would have to keep on evolving and developing at about the same rate or better than European ones.
 
The thing is, the Ming were purchasing European weapons, such as the arquebus, in reasonably large numbers, and were relatively well aware of technical innovations in the West. I would say that an important event to consider was the Battle of Sarhu, in which a mounted nomadic army defeated a large force of gunpowder infantry (in defiance of historical trends). This seemed to be give credence to traditional forms of warfare over modern gunpowder weapons.

The Ming had been following a trend of upgrading their weapons over the centuries, and there was keen interest in developments in the West. The Qing did not, and indeed somewhat disdained gunpowder weapons and they were allowed to become dated. If the Ming survived, the trend towards an all-gunpowder army would not have been interrupted. I would suggest that the centre of gunpowder weapon innovation would continue to be Europe, but a surviving Ming would likely possess a much more modern gunpowder army than the OTL Qing did. Sure, there might be a lag in terms of adoption by the Chinese, but such lags existed within Europe as well, and China at least brings other advantages to the table.

I also believe there would be more trade contacts with the West. People have a bad impression of the Ming due to the curtailing of Zheng He's voyages and such, but compared to the way the Qing went around destroying port facilities and seashore towns they weren't as bad.

There would likely be a gap in development between a surviving Ming and Europe. But that gap would probably be comparatively smaller than the gap between the OTL Qing and Europe, and more easily bridged. That said, it could have negative effects. A backwards China with a more modern army might be able to keep modern peoples at bay for even longer than OTL, without fundamentally changing. A Boxer Rebellion analogue in a 1910's technological environment is rather horrifying to think about.
 
A backwards China with a more modern army might be able to keep modern peoples at bay for even longer than OTL, without fundamentally changing. A Boxer Rebellion analogue in a 1910's technological environment is rather horrifying to think about.

This is true. What are the odds that a successful Ming in the Victorian age could enact domestic reform? Looking at how Japan turned out, I'm almost inclined to say the century of humiliation was somewhat good for China, in that it provided impetus to modernize...
 
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