Ming America: Whither Europe?

[B_Munro]

And whether or not China has a million men at home, that doesn't mean it will/can deploy a million men to the Americas.

And Charles V sure as hell can't deploy his 150,000 there, either.

Some quick google scanning seems to indicate a decay in quality of Ming armies in the 16th century, an overreliance on mercenaries and an increased lack of sophisticated manuever, and a an increasing dependence on Europeans for artillery manufacture: OTOH, a growing population makes it likely that rather _more_ than a million men could be mobilized. A Spanish visitor, Martin de Rada, gives a list of garrisons in the late 16th century amounting to nearly five millions, although much of this was probably "paper" stength never achieved in practice.

Much depends on whether the Ming's new world adventures leads to a longer-lasting dynasty and a continued upgrading of their military: if the Ming still decay from within as OTL, Chinese America could be fairly ripe for the picking by Europeans by the early-to-mid-1600's. (Whether there has been mass Chinese settlement or not also will be of some importance).

Bruce

 

[Riain]

Everything that individual or allied European powers did in the 1500s the Chinese could do in the 1400s, with the right push of course. the feats of Columbus, DaGama, Magellan, Cortez, Pizzaro and Drake were well within the capabilities of China in the 1400s. I'd also include things like the Great Armada, Lepanto as within Chinese capabilities, with the right push. The Ming dynasty was young and vibrant in the early 1400s, but by the 1500s was losing its way, it was ousted in 1644 after losing 'the Mandate of heaven', ie it was a stagnant, corrupt mess. If the vibrancy which produced the treasure fleet was prolonged for another 50 years or so the expanding Europeans would meet a the most powerful country in the world BEFORE they had undergone their military revolution. As it happened the European expanded into a vacum and then underwent the military revoltion which cemented these gains.

 

[Faeelin]

Some quick google scanning seems to indicate a decay in quality of Ming armies in the 16th century, an overreliance on mercenaries and an increased lack of sophisticated manuever, and a an increasing dependence on Europeans for artillery manufacture: OTOH, a growing population makes it likely that rather _more_ than a million men could be mobilized. A Spanish visitor, Martin de Rada, gives a list of garrisons in the late 16th century amounting to nearly five millions, although much of this was probably "paper" stength never achieved in practice.

Some caveats; while some artillery was designed by the Portuguese, it was quickly copied; there was just no push for improvement, as there'd be if psychotic Spaniards are periodically trying to take the Golden Lands.

The rebels who took Beijing and ravaged China from teh 1620s on, BTW, used way more gunpowder weapons than the Ming army.

 

[Hendryk]

there was just no push for improvement, as there'd be if psychotic Spaniards are periodically trying to take the Golden Lands.

Interesting point. In OTL the Ming dynasty didn't see the point on improving existing technologies and let Europe get ahead; but if it has to defend its sphere of influence against Spanish encroachment, the incentive will be there to not fall behind.

On a related note, just as, in OTL, various European powers saw fit to strike alliances of convenience with the Ottomans, I think it's likely that in TTL Spain's enemies will be tempted to support the Chinese at least until the Spanish are no longer a threat to them. Further, some mutually beneficial trade deals could be made between the Chinese on the one hand and, say, the Dutch or the English on the other, to undercut the Spanish in the Atlantic.

 

[Riain]

China may have been like the Ottomans, gradually slipping behind. But while they were competitve they would be a force to reckon with. The Portuguese would have to behave themselves in Asia and the Spanish would have to do the same in America. By the time the Europeans were superior the tone would be set and they would have to fight against entrenched independent states in America, Africa and Asia.

 

[Advernt]

China may have been like the Ottomans, gradually slipping behind. But while they were competitve they would be a force to reckon with. The Portuguese would have to behave themselves in Asia and the Spanish would have to do the same in America. By the time the Europeans were superior the tone would be set and they would have to fight against entrenched independent states in America, Africa and Asia.

Then again , did'nt the British cut their way through several Indian Kingdoms while conquering India . Granted ,they filled the power vaccum left by the gradual disintegration of Mughal power , but the same thing could occur upon the collapse of the Ming Empire . If , the Ming Empire collapses into several sucessor states in the manner of the end of the Han Dynasty and later thanks to American gold and European pressure , there is a very real probability that the rising European powers might carve out actual territorial possesions in China in the 19th century , unlike the spheres of influences that they built in the well entrenched Qing Dynasty .

 

[Hendryk]

Then again , did'nt the British cut their way through several Indian Kingdoms while conquering India . Granted ,they filled the power vaccum left by the gradual disintegration of Mughal power , but the same thing could occur upon the collapse of the Ming Empire . If , the Ming Empire collapses into several sucessor states in the manner of the end of the Han Dynasty and later thanks to American gold and European pressure , there is a very real probability that the rising European powers might carve out actual territorial possesions in China in the 19th century , unlike the spheres of influences that they built in the well entrenched Qing Dynasty .

That's one way things could turn out. Notice, however, that by the mid-20th century the British were out of India; likewise I don't think any European power could hold on indefinitely to any significant chunk of Chinese America, even assuming it could conquer it in the first place.

One big question is: what happens to the Chinese settlements in the Americas when the Ming dynasty does fall? A probable outcome is that, even as the home country is taken over by whichever new dynasty (whether the Qing or another one), the American colonies would remain loyal to the deposed Ming and turn into a Taiwan writ large. At that point some breakup into smaller polities may happen given the size of the place, but a strong ethnocultural identity as Chinese would remain, keeping open the option of long-term continentwide reunification. The split with the home country, however, may become permanent.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

One big question is: what happens to the Chinese settlements in the Americas when the Ming dynasty does fall? A probable outcome is that, even as the home country is taken over by whichever new dynasty (whether the Qing or another one), the American colonies would remain loyal to the deposed Ming and turn into a Taiwan writ large. At that point some breakup into smaller polities may happen given the size of the place, but a strong ethnocultural identity as Chinese would remain, keeping open the option of long-term continentwide reunification. The split with the home country, however, may become permanent.

How many times has this ever happened in history, though? Period? And since most colonies abroad are/were meant more as markets for the home-nation and were prevented the construction of various local industry (the American colonies, for example, had a law against making metal plows so that they would be bought for Britain), any "loyalist" coalition/nation/whatever would have relatively little industry.

 

[Faeelin]

How many times has this ever happened in history, though? Period? And since most colonies abroad are/were meant more as markets for the home-nation and were prevented the construction of various local industry (the American colonies, for example, had a law against making metal plows so that they would be bought for Britain), any "loyalist" coalition/nation/whatever would have relatively little industry.

How many times has what happened? Provinces have refused to recognize a new emperor? Colonies carrying on the fight when their homeland's been occupied, like Brazil?

 

[Dean_the_Young]

How many times has what happened? Provinces have refused to recognize a new emperor? Colonies carrying on the fight when their homeland's been occupied, like Brazil?

Colonies carrying on the fight, without in turn demanding independence afterwords (like Pacific colonies did in WW2). Brazil is the one example I can think of, and I don't know for sure.

 

[Faeelin]

Well, there's the fate of Song and Ming loyalists in Southern China, who continued to fight after their capitals fell.

This isn't some oppressed colony; it's a part of China, after all.

Though I think it's funny thatalmost no one has talked about the original issue.

 

[Admiral Matt]

Well, of course noone's talking about Europe! Since Spain can inevitably conquer the Americas out from under the Chinese and get on without the aid of the blinding wealth of the place, Europe's manifest superiority in everything will mean little else in history changes. Of course, exactly which Aryan-I-mean-European state controls each region will vary, and Serbia may well conquer the Ottomans, but that's about it.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Well, of course noone's talking about Europe! Since Spain can inevitably conquer the Americas out from under the Chinese and get on without the aid of the blinding wealth of the place, Europe's manifest superiority in everything will mean little else in history changes. Of course, exactly which Aryan-I-mean-European state controls each region will vary, and Serbia may well conquer the Ottomans, but that's about it.

Wait, is this aimed at me? I hope it's not; I just took a stance against excessive China-wank, which seemed to be a trend at the start of the thread. If you're accusing me of race-superiority, at least have the decency to quote me before implying such.

 

[83gemini]

I think one problem is that the nature of the European contact with the Americas was so fundamental to their development that a large change in contact such as Ming arrival in the early to mid 15th century produces giant, city-shadowing butterflies all over the place. Is there a redirected expansion of Europe? Is the expansion of Europe predicated on an Atlantic economy? Is it plausible for China to really make something out of Mesoamerica when it gets there? And if it is what is made? And in the long run would this discovery spark that legendary AH beast, Chinese capitalism?

 

[Faeelin]

Wait, is this aimed at me? I hope it's not; I just took a stance against excessive China-wank, which seemed to be a trend at the start of the thread. If you're accusing me of race-superiority, at least have the decency to quote me before implying such.

No, you took a stand against what you perceived to be excessive Chinawank, and then went on to fail to provide any evidence of it, while insinuating that I didn't know what I was talking about.

 

[Faeelin]

I think one problem is that the nature of the European contact with the Americas was so fundamental to their development that a large change in contact such as Ming arrival in the early to mid 15th century produces giant, city-shadowing butterflies all over the place. Is there a redirected expansion of Europe? Is the expansion of Europe predicated on an Atlantic economy? Is it plausible for China to really make something out of Mesoamerica when it gets there? And if it is what is made? And in the long run would this discovery spark that legendary AH beast, Chinese capitalism?

::Weeps::

This is what I was getting at.

 

[Admiral Matt]

I can assure you I was not implying your membership in the Nazi party or any such thing, Mister Young. I just found your view of Spanish competence rather excessive.

Personally I very much doubt the ability of European expansion to be redirected. I remain convinced that - at least at first - it had much more to do with Amerindian weakness than European strength. Few places were as easily reachable, and none had so much unexploited potential. Without the incredible success of Spain, colonial adventures would likely be much less commonly attempted, much less successful. The knock on effect would likely be slower settlement even in places like Brazil or the east coast of North America where the Chinese could have no presence.

In the long run it is hard to imagine the areas east of the Rockies and Andies ending up in the hands of anyone but Europeans, but it would be a very long time before they became significant. Probably the most interesting factor would be how this would affect European culture in the long run. How would the new Chinese lands be seen by their European "discoverers?" It isn't as if they would realize that the Chinese had only arrived a centure or so before. With the most direct contact with the Chinese coming through Mexico, will the western understanding of the country be skewed by step pyramids and clothing made of hummingbird feathers? Later histories may take a view along the lines of "of course the Chinese were there first."

 

[83gemini]

Wouldn't Northern Europeans hit Newfoundland and the cod fishery? "Vinland" at least could be held by a European power.

I think one interesting thing would be Mesoamerican gold+ China know how= Chinese Capitalism! Nothing like an industrial revolution a mite early to spice things up.

 

[Faeelin]

Wouldn't Northern Europeans hit Newfoundland and the cod fishery? "Vinland" at least could be held by a European power.

Oh, certainly. Although I'm not entirely certain about the idea of European territory to the East.

It's probable, but let's suppose the Chinese get there around 1480. you have them settle, start hunting furs, and they spread east.

Finally, some one finds Mesabi, and the Chinese were known for cast iron...

Mmm. As cool as the idea of a native tribe dominating the heart of the continent is, it does seem unlikely.

I think one interesting thing would be Mesoamerican gold+ China know how= Chinese Capitalism! Nothing like an industrial revolution a mite early to spice things up.

I'm not sure this will lead to an IR; it's not just that you need capital; it's very complex.

That said, I bet China turns Bengal into an economic colony, which grows cotton to feed the insatiable Chinese demand.

 

[La Malinche]

Hi, long-time reader, first-time poster here. I found this thread searching for my namesake, and it's so interesting I hope no one minds me resurrecting it from the dead.

I think one problem is that the nature of the European contact with the Americas was so fundamental to their development that a large change in contact such as Ming arrival in the early to mid 15th century produces giant, city-shadowing butterflies all over the place. Is there a redirected expansion of Europe? Is the expansion of Europe predicated on an Atlantic economy? Is it plausible for China to really make something out of Mesoamerica when it gets there? And if it is what is made? And in the long run would this discovery spark that legendary AH beast, Chinese capitalism?

That's the crux of this whole issue, which I think everyone is ignoring. Do we even have a recognizable Europe in 1600 without Peruvian silver? The whole growth of commerce in Europe which stimulated the Enlightenment was built on Spanish silver. Without a good currency, Europe's economy will be retarded, and it follows that Europe's scientific and cultural development, not to mention further colonial efforts, are going to be much less than OTL.

Let's handwave away all the hairs that have been split earlier. The Zheng He expedition or some analogue in the early 15th Century surveys the West Coast of the North American continent, following the circular currents described upthread. We'll assume they plant some outpost on San Francisco bay, and the description of the California coast (maybe the expedition finds gold or something) prompts the emperor or some senior mandarin to launch a major expedition to the Americas. I don't know that much about Ming China, but from Gavin Menzies' and Louise Levathes' books on Zheng He's fleet, I understand they planted small colonies in places they thought were of economic interest.

The Great Expedition explores Puget Sound and the Alaska coast, extensively surveys California's Central Valley, and also surveys down the California coastline. Most of Alta and Baja California's coastline south of Monterey Bay is too wild and desolate to be of much interest (though Catalina Island and San Diego bay are interesting base locations), but the Chinese ships continue exploring the coast, finding no native cultures of interest until Michocoan. If Chinese explorers pressed inward from the coast, they would find the territory of the Tarascan empire, the largest and most credible rival of the Mexica. A Chinese trading post on the coast of Michocoan and Chinese links with the Tarascans would radically change the balance of power in Mesoamerica. Another possibility is contact with the Mixtec and Zapotec states farther south on the coasts of Oaxaca.
Can we continue the discussion taking this or something like it for granted? We have a major Chinese settlement in the lower Sacramento Valley, probably at least 2000-5000 people mining gold and farming. We may see a series of Chinese supply posts down the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Oaxaca to facilitate trading, as Chinese explorers and traders penetrate into Mesoamerica. Even if events follow OTL and the Chinese cut off overseas exploration, it's doubtful they would completely abandon this colony, especially if it continues to be profitable. It's very conceivable that by 1500 we could have a major silver mining operation underway in Peru.
Certainly Spanish ships will reach the Indes, Portugues ships Brazil, and English Newfoundland, but beyond limited extraction efforts there, they will probably not settle America as enthusiastically. Mexico will be a hornet's nest for Europeans regardless of the course of events, and the Pacific will certainly be denied with only minimal Chinese effort. I imagine a Chinese allied Tarascan empire should be able to roll up a significant part of Mesoamerica rather quickly, once the troublesome Mexica are dealt with.

Given all this *whew*, where is Europe left? How much (if at all) is China affected? The question is about Europe, not China or America.

Well, there's the fate of Song and Ming loyalists in Southern China, who continued to fight after their capitals fell.

This isn't some oppressed colony; it's a part of China, after all.

Though I think it's funny thatalmost no one has talked about the original issue.

I imagine that even if the Chinese completely abandon all overseas colonies, Europeans will not be able to conquer Mexico, and parts of the Pacific coast will be significantly Chinese for centuries to come.

Thoughts?

--Malinche