Ming America: Whither Europe?
- Thread starter Faeelin
- Start date
A Description of the Ming Military from the 1590s, when it was already in its decline.
The armament of the Ming warships during the war:
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_military_history/v069/69.1swope.html#REF8
The armament of the Ming warships during the war:
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_military_history/v069/69.1swope.html#REF8
Actually, I was asking more along the lines of does China have experience fighting other profesional gunpowder-using enemies. Did the Mongols or Somalis have gunpowder? I don't know.
In this point I just meant that Spain would have a concentrated fighting force where it landed, while there might not be a peer opposition force until Spain has already conquered the area. What happens there, I don't know.
But why would there be a few thousand Chinese forces in the immediate area anyway?
We haven't even established that China would invade and conquer rather than try to ally with the local leaders, or that a Chinese invasion force would be any larger than Cortez Force. For all we(I) know, China at the time could be using the British method; a very few people wielding influence over a much larger populace. In which case it isn't a case of who can fight better, but rather who has men in the area at the right time.
1. if there's nobody to greet the Spaniards, why would they go inland?
2. {more seriously} China has a larger manpower base and a greater industrial capacity.
But how much does that matter, at the tailend of nowhere? The US today has the best industry, and more importantly the best transportation infrastructure in the world, and can still barely put men into Afghanistan due to logistics. And as Chinese forces go from Pacific towards the Atlantic, the supply lines get thinner.
In the early 1400s, China was the 800-lb gorilla of the Indo-Pacific....nobody was stronger than China.
I could be wrong, but from this board I was given the impression that Spain was the 800-lb gorilla of Europe; nobody was stronger in Europe. But again, how does that translate into the Americas? Spain suffers the problems of interest and cost, but so do the Chinese. Maybe even more so, as Atlantic currents take Spain to the Caribbean, while China has a bit extra sailing today.
Not projection ability, but where people are now. Spain had no problem conquering multiple places not least because it wasn't racing anyone else in its areas of interest. If China lands a force in upper Mexico, while a Spanish force is in lower Mexico, both sides only hold what they occupy.
Have you ever played a "Capture the bases" FPS with more bases than people? It's a bit like that; you can easily keep swapping bases if you both try to capture the other person's area, but if you stay to defend your own area the opponent can get the areas you aren't at.
Inventing the concept doesn't translate into leading expertise. Having the same concept doesn't translate into parity either. To use hyperbole, is a Hamas garage rocket as good as an Iranian Revolutionary Guard rocket as good as a Russian rocket as good as an American rocket? We have an idea where Spanish musketry was, but where are Chinese firearms at this point?
Heck, where were Chinese firearms at this point OTL?
No fair! I asked first!See my previous post; if you'd like, I can find an article that talks about how the peoples of Southeast Asia adopted gunpowder from the Ming and used it against them.
Gold. Silver. Plus native levies who aren't afraid of horses.
Yes, except the natives will not be afraid of horses, metallurgy, crossbows, or guns. Cortes will not have the morale benefit he had OTL; ahnd there are soldiers who are capable of resisting him on the scene.
I don't get why you think the Spanish were that great; they lost to Dutch peasants who flooded the land; they lost to Berbers in North Africa; and they lost to the English at sea.
Hey, if they could support a force in East Africa, they can support it in Mexico.
It's not like China doesn't have practice at this. Garrison soldiers there, who will fight if you need them.
You're forgetting how small the force that conquered these empires was; 530 men conquered Mexico under Cortes.
I can assure you that there would be more than 530 people in a Mexico if we assume the Ming took it.
The idea of Spain being anywhere near comparable to China in the 16th century is laughable.
The discussion was around the Ming conquering it by 1480 or so.
My previous quote was a 30 second google search, and is particularly ironic since you're prepared to make statements about what the Chinese do or do not possess when you acknowledge, eventually, that you don't know.
Keenir
Banned
why would they do that? (I mean "why would they do that before they learned there was another non-native army in the same realm as they?")
after all, they didn't in OTL.
the post one or two before yours on this page.
ah, but someone asked you first (firster?), and that's what you told them.
Good point, but don't leave the diseases out of the equation.
The spread of Old World diseases among the natives will be the inevitable result of any kind of long-therm contacts with the Chinese.
And a native army that doesn't fear horses, steel weapons and gunpowder weapons will be a lot better prepared againest the Spanish, but if the local native communities have been ravaged by Chinese diseases like smallpox and influenza, it isn't that likely that there will be enough able-bodied men left to create an army that should be able to fight of the Spanish...
..
On a side note; how would the Chinese react when they see that epidemics of diseases that they are quite familiar with are killing off natives by the thousands?
The Spanish still managed to conquer half the Netherlands though, and much of what they conquered was permanently lost to the Dutch rebels, and the Dutch forces that the Spanish were fighting were pirates and professional soldiers rather than "just a bunch of peasants".
As for the Spanish losses in North Africa; the Berbers were a pretty tough enemy; the empire of the Almohads was broken by Berber rebellions - yet in spite of the strenght of the Berber tribes, the main reason why the Spanish failed to gain a firm foothold in North Africa during the 16th and 17th centuries was that the Barbary states had allied themselves with the Ottomans, who were pretty much at their peak at that point.
...and the main reason that Spain lost so many of its wars in the 16th century, was that the Spanish were taking on pretty much everyone at the same time.
Had the Spanish not gotten themselves involved in so many wars with so many different (and often powerful) enemies in such as short time, then Spain would have been a lot more successful during this period.
And not only did the Spanish bite off more than they could chew, their enemies also took advantage of this by making various alliances with eachother. Abdul once reminded me to the fact that, had the Ottomans and Habsburgs not been at war during the Dutch Revolt, the odds are that the Spanish would have had little trouble with crushing the Dutch rebels...
Why would it take China until 1510 to discover the Amercias? They were already fully adept oceanic sailors, they'd just have to send a mission past Japan at any time during the early 1400s. Treasure fleet voyages could follow in the mid 1400s, and Chinese hegemony would exist from then onwards. I'd imagine the Americans would pick up a hell of a lot through trade in the century between Chinese discovery and European discovery of the 'civilised' parts of America.
The idea of Spain fighting China in Mexico is very interesting indeed!
I'd like to add that the outcome of the battle may depend decisevely on the attitude of the natives.
If China is a benevolent ruller, who keeps local authoriuties in power, the Natives may seek gladly Chinese help as soon as Spanish arrive (specially if the Spanish act brutally or if they star destroying their "idols"). In these case, Spanish are doomed.
If, on the contrary, the Chinese act opresevily, and the Spanish act wisely, they may present themselves as liberators. If they have bases on the caribean islands, and Mesoamerican natives rebell, Chinese are lost.
Both scenarios are valid only if Spanish arrive shortly after the Chinese. If they arrive much latter, when the Mesoamerican have been totally assimilated to the Chinese culture, non of these 2 scenarios would take place.
I think one of the greatest problem the Mesoamericans and the Incas faced in OTL, was that they had to fight only one more tecnologicaly advanced invader. The conquest was extremly fast, and when other European came, it was too late for them. And, as Spain controlled the ports, any contact between English or French sailors and "rebellius" indians from the interior (like the surviving Inca state in the mountaiins, which lasted till 1571) was almost impossible.
I'd like to add that the outcome of the battle may depend decisevely on the attitude of the natives.
If China is a benevolent ruller, who keeps local authoriuties in power, the Natives may seek gladly Chinese help as soon as Spanish arrive (specially if the Spanish act brutally or if they star destroying their "idols"). In these case, Spanish are doomed.
If, on the contrary, the Chinese act opresevily, and the Spanish act wisely, they may present themselves as liberators. If they have bases on the caribean islands, and Mesoamerican natives rebell, Chinese are lost.
Both scenarios are valid only if Spanish arrive shortly after the Chinese. If they arrive much latter, when the Mesoamerican have been totally assimilated to the Chinese culture, non of these 2 scenarios would take place.
I think one of the greatest problem the Mesoamericans and the Incas faced in OTL, was that they had to fight only one more tecnologicaly advanced invader. The conquest was extremly fast, and when other European came, it was too late for them. And, as Spain controlled the ports, any contact between English or French sailors and "rebellius" indians from the interior (like the surviving Inca state in the mountaiins, which lasted till 1571) was almost impossible.
competing states
You will probably have a situation where the meso American peoples are a batch of smaller competing states.
Michoacan and Oaxaca as Chinese influenced and allied tributary states
and a Central Mexico centred probably on Tlaxcala as a Spanish conquered state along with Central America (basically the C-G Guatemala, though Guatamala City might actually end up as the centre of the Spanish contolled terr. instead of Mexico City. To the northwest, nomadic tribes along with the Puebla, Hopi and Navajo, as well as the Huastec and Toltec remnants will ally with those whom give them the most advantages.
The rest of the Carribean and Nueva Granada probably will fall into the Spanish Sphere, but the Huari Empire could survive as an independent entity playing the interests of the Ming and Spanish off against each other.
Spain will definitely have direct control of the Caribbean Antilles, the Ming the Central Valley of California ( should they actually decide its worth the effort to settle it, probably Puget Sound as well and the island of Nootka (this TL) and straits of Juan de Fuca).
You will probably have a situation where the meso American peoples are a batch of smaller competing states.
Michoacan and Oaxaca as Chinese influenced and allied tributary states
and a Central Mexico centred probably on Tlaxcala as a Spanish conquered state along with Central America (basically the C-G Guatemala, though Guatamala City might actually end up as the centre of the Spanish contolled terr. instead of Mexico City. To the northwest, nomadic tribes along with the Puebla, Hopi and Navajo, as well as the Huastec and Toltec remnants will ally with those whom give them the most advantages.
The rest of the Carribean and Nueva Granada probably will fall into the Spanish Sphere, but the Huari Empire could survive as an independent entity playing the interests of the Ming and Spanish off against each other.
Spain will definitely have direct control of the Caribbean Antilles, the Ming the Central Valley of California ( should they actually decide its worth the effort to settle it, probably Puget Sound as well and the island of Nootka (this TL) and straits of Juan de Fuca).
Just because we happen to be living in a Spanowank TL doesn't mean Spain was much of anything special. If the Mexicans could nearly handle them in OTL, even after the plagues had killed off most of them, it's hard to believe they'd have a chance in this one. The locals would be on the way to recovery from the plagues, instead of falling down dead right around the oncoming Spanish. The technological advantages would just seal the deal.
Spain stays a poor and violent backwater at the fringe of Europe and probably spends more time looking at North Africa. Might this give the Ottomans an advantage in the Mediterranean?
Spain stays a poor and violent backwater at the fringe of Europe and probably spends more time looking at North Africa. Might this give the Ottomans an advantage in the Mediterranean?
Keenir
Banned
very likely....particularly if the French don't alienate their Ottoman allies.
and if Queen Elizabeth (or her analogue in this ATL) of England offers the Ottomans an alliance (like she tried in OTL), the Spanish are toast.
Have you looked at a map recently? As in one that shows the scale of the Pacific compared to the continents? Even with the ocean currents, it is not just a matter of "sailing past Japan at any time during" (blank) year. No matter how you slice it, it's a very long journey. Especially when you don't know what's out there. You have to have a sturdy ship, plenty of supplies, accurate navigation, a willing and able crew...
It's hardly 'easy', nor does it guarantee hegemony. Did Spanish hegemony "exist from then onwards" in OTL?
Just because we happen to be living in a mostly Sinowank TL until just the last couple centuries...
Will Spain be prevented from having repeat successes of OTL? Almost certainly. Does that mean that China is suddenly going to step into the role Spain played in OTL? Hardly. Regardless who brings it, disease in the form of smallpox and others are going to be de facto genocide among the natives. And then politics are going to factor in; will the natives fight for the Chinese? Will they fight for the people who brought the great plague? China may have been many things, but I have yet to meet anyone who can claim that the Chinese were kind and benevolent.
Er, what? Spain was already a major military power, I think we've touched on that already. AND regardless of how things go in the thinest part of Central America, Spain can easily get the rich Caribbean, the Atlantic/Caribbean part of South and North Americaa, and more. Hardly "poor" and "backwater".
Keenir
Banned
for all of that, you could say the same for Spain.
they thought there was a big watery nothing where the Americas are.
in OTL they did -- they also fought for the people who brought down their governments and enslaved them and robbed their lands.
so, what was your point?
and what exactly were the Spaniards? (Conquistadors and priests alike)
so was China.
'easily'?
All of which China had. Yay!
This is pretty silly. Spain is not a nation with several hundred million people in the early modern era. And as you're so fond of pointing out, Spain had control of Mexico and Peru for centuries, and the people there still speak Spanish.
What, are you kidding? China's gotten a series of bad luck events for the last several centuries.
I am utterly shocked.
The natives of Yunnan sometimes did; sometimes they didn't. It varies, just as it did for the Spanish.
But why would the Spanish have more success overrunning Chinese colonies than, say, the English did the Spanish?
You seem like you're desperately trying to get a world where Spain can still win, for some reason.
You're projecting backwards. The Carribean was a backwater until the middle-late 17th century, useful only as a route to other places.
Sugar development hadn't started yet, frex.
Just my two cents:
Spain (and Europe) were only starting the European "military revolution" at the start of the 1500's. Armies were smaller, more poorly equipped, and much more poorly organized than they were only a couple centuries later. (Much would be learned during the 30 years war). Even with new world silver and gold, the Habsburgs always were in serious financial straits due to their military commitments. The Ming had a standing army of a million men at a time when Charles V's entire dominions could only outfit 150,000.
(To put in another way - the Ming would probably be in trouble facing the armies of Louis XIV. Charles V - meh).
Bruce
Spain (and Europe) were only starting the European "military revolution" at the start of the 1500's. Armies were smaller, more poorly equipped, and much more poorly organized than they were only a couple centuries later. (Much would be learned during the 30 years war). Even with new world silver and gold, the Habsburgs always were in serious financial straits due to their military commitments. The Ming had a standing army of a million men at a time when Charles V's entire dominions could only outfit 150,000.
(To put in another way - the Ming would probably be in trouble facing the armies of Louis XIV. Charles V - meh).
Bruce
One would suspect an expansionist China would be busy fighting over Europe for the next few centuries with the Europeans. The real differences would lie if China pulled off a transition to Industrial Revolution far before Europe. The problem seems to be a lack of "Scientific Revolution" for some reason or another.
When you say that the Ming had a standing army of a million, is this accurate? Standing armies are rather expensive, and if China is going to spend treasury on more sailing, the costs will come from somewhere.
And is this army fully outfitted like Chales V's 150,000? Full armor, weapons, rations, and pay? Or are we talking about a cheaper polygot force?
And whether or not China has a million men at home, that doesn't mean it will/can deploy a million men to the Americas.
I suggest if you are truly interested in this topic you visit your college's library.
Especially if you think Charles V's army had "full armor".
It means they can deploy more than the Europeans can, at least to the part of the New World where there is money to be had immediately - the Valley of Mexico and Peru (though really we're talking about Mexico here, right?). After all, the continents were almost useless otherwise. There was good fishing up by Newfoundland, but nearly every other resource required a century or two of settlement before real payoff.