Ming America: Whither Europe?

[Keenir]

my only quibble is with this:

It's a bit of a tie; they'd arrive around the same time, and I suspect the Chinese would be better at getting the natives on their side simply by not forcing them to abandon their faith.

why exactly would the Chinese be any more tolerant of the blood sacrifices of the Aztecs than the Spanish were?

 

[Hendryk]

why exactly would the Chinese be any more tolerant of the blood sacrifices of the Aztecs than the Spanish were?

They'd definitely consider them distasteful, and would try to look for ways to coax the Aztecs away from such bloodthirsty practices, but their attitude would be, What else can you expect from barbarians? There wouldn't be the missionary drive to stamp it out at least in the short term.

Confucian scholars would no doubt remember how historical records mention human sacrifice being practiced during the Shang and Xia dynasties, and how they were considered ex post facto a symptom of moral decay. They may consider that the Aztecs are likewise a society waiting for the moral renewal of a new regime, one, presumably, that submits to the enlightened overlordship of the Son of Heaven.

 

[Sgt Detritus]

Let us posit a TL where the glorious emissaries of the Dragon Throne continue to explore the Indian Ocean, and ultimately reach America. While the Aztecas are made quick work of, the people of the Andes region end up as distant tributaries; who happen to love metallurgy.

So, Europe's short the tons of silver and gold it got from the New World, and China, which desperately needed silver for a currency, and traded its goods for it, now doesn't need Europe as much.

Does this short circuit the European role in the world economy?

Not necessarily as the Europeans would find another route into America, possibly throught the descendant of the successful Viking colonies

 

[Tyr]

I think by the medieval age China's chances are probally past. Even if it does keep exploring and all its still a monolithic civilization.
Europe's rise isn't exactly inevitable but it is the most likely, also more probable are the muslims and perhaps with a lot of other changes India.

Should China get to America first Europe would probally follow and bite into Chinese profits heavily.

 

[Hendryk]

Should China get to America first Europe would probally follow and bite into Chinese profits heavily.

In OTL the New World's gold, though mined by the Spanish and used for currency by the rest of Europe, eventually ended up in Chinese coffers. I think Faeelin has a point when he says that China discovering the New World would simply cut out the middleman.

 

[Faeelin]

They'd definitely consider them distasteful, and would try to look for ways to coax the Aztecs away from such bloodthirsty practices, but their attitude would be, What else can you expect from barbarians? There wouldn't be the missionary drive to stamp it out at least in the short term.

Mmm. I'm not so sure of this. I could easily see a n eccentric explorer who's read the Buddha's comments on sacrifice to get a bit angry....

But even so, you would still see Aztec religion survive, in different forms. The Buddha teaches Quetzacoatl to feast, like Hariti, in offerings of fruit?

 

[Faeelin]

Not necessarily as the Europeans would find another route into America, possibly throught the descendant of the successful Viking colonies

But this is a secondary POD then. And it's still not as valuable as the bonanza that was OTL Spain and Peru.

 

[Faeelin]

I think by the medieval age China's chances are probally past. Even if it does keep exploring and all its still a monolithic civilization

So?

Should China get to America first Europe would probally follow and bite into Chinese profits heavily.

Sure, as pirates and smugglers, and probably some crazy priests who periodically try to convert the epire.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Sure, as pirates and smugglers, and probably some crazy priests who periodically try to convert the epire.

Why does a Chinese presence somehow limit Spanish attempts? You're assuming that because China arrives and (presumedly) makes the natives submit, Spain won't come and try and carve out their own Christian lands from the unbelievers. Why should Spain care if China was there first? They're still unbelievers, and there still could be the fact that the Aztecs are waiting for their god from the East...

 

[Faeelin]

Why does a Chinese presence somehow limit Spanish attempts? You're assuming that because China arrives and (presumedly) makes the natives submit, Spain won't come and try and carve out their own Christian lands from the unbelievers. Why should Spain care if China was there first? They're still unbelievers, and there still could be the fact that the Aztecs are waiting for their god from the East...

For starters: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quetzalcoatl#Moctezuma_Controversy

(Basically, the Quetzacoatl myth appears to be something that only arose after the conquest, in part as a way to rationalize the Mesoamerican defeat).

I'm not sure why it's necessary to presume a gunpowder using ironworking civilization with horses can presume the Aztecs, given the experience of the Spanish OTL.

Spain may not care, but the metalworking soldiers of the Eastern Lands might not have much truck for a couple of round eyed barbarians...

 

[Philip]

More like Puget Sound if they go north or California if they go south. Meaning they'd soon find the San Francisco Bay, which is as nice a natural harbor as one can hope to come across, and located in a lush region (not to mention one where gold is waiting to be discovered).

Fair enough -- but this still fits my theory. Wouldn't it be more likely that Chinese would be exploring/conquering/settling/whatevering along the west coast of OTL US? Seems to me that the Europeans could still arrive in the Caribbean. They might encounter the Aztecs before the Chinese more that far south.

One the other hand if the Chinese do make it OTL Mexico, what effect does this have on any Europeans who eventually make it there? Does it reinforce the idea that they have actually reached China and the Indies?

When you look at the north Pacific currents, you realize how convenient they would have been from a Chinese perspective. In OTL the Spanish used them to sail from Mexico to the Philippines in one go.

I agree that it is very convenient for reaching North America. I am not so convinced about South America.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Spain may not care, but the metalworking soldiers of the Eastern Lands might not have much truck for a couple of round eyed barbarians...

Which could mean war, which in no way is guaranteed a Chinese victory. For all we know, Spain could rally natives behind it and wipe Chinese-aligned forces off the map.

 

[Faeelin]

Which could mean war, which in no way is guaranteed a Chinese victory. For all we know, Spain could rally natives behind it and wipe Chinese-aligned forces off the map.

Maybe. Persuade me what advantages the Spanish have, however.

They might win victories; they probably would. But I don't see any way they could hold onto a more advanced MesoAmerica long term in the faced of determined resistance.

 

[Keenir]

Why does a Chinese presence somehow limit Spanish attempts? You're assuming that because China arrives and (presumedly) makes the natives submit, Spain won't come and try and carve out their own Christian lands from the unbelievers. Why should Spain care if China was there first? They're still unbelievers, and there still could be the fact that the Aztecs are waiting for their god from the East...

how much of New Spain was England and Sweden able to wrest from Spain in OTL?

why would Spain have any more luck wresting the Chinese-conquered regions of the Americas from China?

 

[Faeelin]

Fair enough -- but this still fits my theory. Wouldn't it be more likely that Chinese would be exploring/conquering/settling/whatevering along the west coast of OTL US? Seems to me that the Europeans could still arrive in the Caribbean. They might encounter the Aztecs before the Chinese more that far south.

I suspect you'd see voyages from Fusang, especially as people find out how much gold (and jade) there is in the region. All it takes is one ship...

I agree that it is very convenient for reaching North America. I am not so convinced about South America.

The Spanish did it somehow; one imagines the Chinese could as too, although it's a tossup who gets there first.

 

[Earling]

It depends on whether this marks a great change in the character of OTL China or just a passing fancy.

The native populations will decline rapidly due to Chinese diseases after contact is made. This will probably happen regardless of whether the Chinese conquer territory directly or simply force the native powers to raise tribute.

The Europeans will eventually come to the Americas. When they find gold and other valueables they will be intent upon conquest. It seems unlikely that the natives, in the throes of the various epidemics which will kill anything from 30-80% of the population, will be able to put up much resistance.

China will need to support armies (even if largely composed of natives) and sizable fleets if the Europeans are not to contest and probably conquer the America's 50~ years later. The Chinese probably won't be overly concerned if they just want to have the natives pay tribute (especially when a large die-off cripples their ability to pay). Direct conquest and the resulting gain of vast amounts of silver on the otherhand could easilly see that change.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Maybe. Persuade me what advantages the Spanish have, however.

They might win victories; they probably would. But I don't see any way they could hold onto a more advanced MesoAmerica long term in the faced of determined resistance.

Persuade me what advantages China has, except for having introduced smallpox and other diseases among the population before the Spanish arrive in force. Which, to me, isn't much of an advantage.

Does China have a military tradition and expertise to match Spain, arguably the strongest military power in the western world?

how much of New Spain was England and Sweden able to wrest from Spain in OTL?

Short answer? Not much, and only the poorest northern fringes.

Spain was interested where the wealth was easily exploitable, which was in Central and South America. Until its decline much much later, Spain commanded from Florida to the South. The British colonies from Canada to the Carolinas were rather poor compared to further South.

Later, Spain lost more. But that was later, and this is now.

why would Spain have any more luck wresting the Chinese-conquered regions of the Americas from China?

Because Spain would be arriving with a fresh force, while the conquering Chinese armies may be elsewhere conquering something else? Because Spain has more practice fighting other gunpowder fighters in Europe, whereas China (I assume) doesn't?

Rather, why should China have any more luck preventing Spain from conquering conquered areas so far away than the Aztecs?

 

[Philip]

The Spanish did it somehow; one imagines the Chinese could as too, although it's a tossup who gets there first.

You mean that the Spanish reached Central and South America? That is because the Atlantic currents off of Spain lead to the Caribbean, not the northern portion of the east coast of North America. The Portuguese landed in Brazil because the currents used to round Africa take you near South America. Central/South America is the 'natural' place for Spanish explorers to land. On the other hand, the 'natural' place for Chinese explorers to land is the north west coast of North America.

Or do you mean that the Spanish crossed the Pacific? When they did so, the followed the currents. North Equatorial Current leads to China.
Kuroshio Current --> North Pacific Drift --> California Current brought them back to the Americas. If the Chinese follow the same route, they land somewhere in the northern portion of the west coast of North America.

 

[Faeelin]

Persuade me what advantages China has, except for having introduced smallpox and other diseases among the population before the Spanish arrive in force. Which, to me, isn't much of an advantage.

Does China have a military tradition and expertise to match Spain, arguably the strongest military power in the western world?

The China that was using gunpowder weapons to breach the walls of cities in Somalia in the 15th century? Who spent centuries fighting the Mongols and subduing their neighbors? Who possessed iron weapons like those of the spaniards, as well as horses?

How could this compare to being a mighty military power like Spain?

Short answer? Not much, and only the poorest northern fringes.

Because Spain would be arriving with a fresh force, while the conquering Chinese armies may be elsewhere conquering something else? Because Spain has more practice fighting other gunpowder fighters in Europe, whereas China (I assume) doesn't?

You seem to have a habit of talking about the Chinese military tradition while acknowledging you don't know much about it.

It isn't like the Spanish had a large force when they conquered the stone-age civilization of Mexico. Against even a few thousand Chinese, they'd be toast.

 

[Keenir]

Persuade me what advantages China has, except for having introduced smallpox and other diseases among the population before the Spanish arrive in force. Which, to me, isn't much of an advantage.

1. if there's nobody to greet the Spaniards, why would they go inland?
2. {more seriously} China has a larger manpower base and a greater industrial capacity.

Does China have a military tradition and expertise to match Spain, arguably the strongest military power in the western world?

In the early 1400s, China was the 800-lb gorilla of the Indo-Pacific....nobody was stronger than China.

Because Spain would be arriving with a fresh force, while the conquering Chinese armies may be elsewhere conquering something else?

conquering multiple places at once didn't phase or weaken Spain's projectioin ability...so why would it weaken China's?

Because Spain has more practice fighting other gunpowder fighters in Europe, whereas China (I assume) doesn't?

so, the people who - over the course of centuries - invented (and refined) guns, cannons, and fireworks (which can be used as weapons) have less experience with gunpowder than an infant regime like Spain's?

Rather, why should China have any more luck preventing Spain from conquering conquered areas so far away than the Aztecs?

as you say, why wouldn't they?