Mind the Door-Nixon Wins in 1960

[Mark E.]

A movement can begin around 1962 to create a new Southern party and then, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a claim to the "Solid South." In OTL, Senator Strom Thurmond switched parties from Democrat to Republican in 1964.

So: do we see Northern Democrats teaming up with Republicans to push civil rights through faster?

 

[SteveW]

A movement can begin around 1962 to create a new Southern party and then, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a claim to the "Solid South." In OTL, Senator Strom Thurmond switched parties from Democrat to Republican in 1964.

So: do we see Northern Democrats teaming up with Republicans to push civil rights through faster?

Not quite, but we do see serious trouble for the Democrats!

 

[SteveW]

If you don't already have a simple POD, I suggest Nixon's "50-state" pledge. Without that he'd probably be well rested, would not injure his already-injured leg on the car door going into the debate, and thus would almost certainly come off the debate better. Also, obviously, he'd spend more time in key states.



As for the timeline, I'm interested. Comments:

On Johnson: He knew that his only chance of winning the Democratic nomination was as VP. Non-Southern delegates were not going to vote for a Southern contender in that time period which left his vote ceiling too low. Nor could he satisfy the Northerners on civil rights without leaving a wide opening for Wallace (or another Southern politician). Simply put: he can't win the nomination.

On Goldwater: He's still nursing a grudge over the Rockefeller-Nixon deal on civil rights in the '60 party platform. He might challenge in '64, but he's almost certain to run in '68.

On Reagan: butterflied.

On RFK: Deeply interesting. Considering how callow Teddy was as a youth, RFK almost certainly sees his duty in politics. I'm not sure of what, but the Senate seat from Massachusetts if JFK retires is probable. It won't be '68, but a vigourous RFK in the Senate is a likely future Democratic nominee. Importantly he, unlike the reforming liberals of the McGovern school, understands class and both the black and blue collar communities—by simply existing he probably alters the course of the Democratic Party from OTL (they'll lose the South, but should keep a hold on "Reagan Democrats").

On JFK: Odds are he retires, buys the Boston Globe and takes a run at making it a rival to the NYTimes. Although his health was never good, it wasn't life-threatening in the general sense. I could easily see him become a key figure in the Democratic Party from the outside—a counter to conservative foundations and organizations?

On 1964: A probable Nixon win, against whoever the Democrats muster. Scoop Jackson is a good contender, Humphrey is probably in there, Johnson is probably in there (but, as I outlined, he ain't gonna win), Mo' Udall might give it a shot, and so forth.

On 1968: gonna be a lot of fun. Goldwater, Rockefeller, Lodge, maybe a few others just on the Republican side….

Thanks for the input. To be honest, the POD is simply that Nixon doesn't injure himself- he looked awful on the televised debates as a result of being ill.

Agreed on Reagan, agreed on Goldwater, and agreed on RFK. 1964 is going to be very very interesting (in more ways than you can imagine). Cabot Lodge will not be on the ticket.

 

[Thande]

Interesting timeline and I like how there's an immediate shift in British politics as well due to the Profumo affair being butterflied away.

 

[SteveW]

On 17th April 1961, an angry Senator Strom Thurmond appeared at Birmingham, Alabama to give a furious speech. Focusing his fire mainly on the Northern Democrats, he effectively ignored the Republicans and attacked Humphrey for his failure to support Ross Barnett. Nixon watched with some amusement on television as Thurmond announced the recreation of the States' Rights Democratic Party. He watched with even more amusement when told that Harry F. Byrd was on side as well.

 

[Mark E.]

So the Dixiecrats become the States' Rights Democratic Party. As a result, the Republicans do not pick up the disenchanted southern white Democrats.

In OTL, the Democrats lost them anyway.

The Republicans will be the big losers because the defectors form the Democratic party do not join the GOP.

In 1968 OTL, George Wallace's American Party existed only for the election that gave him 46 electoral votes. The election was not close enough that no candidate had an electoral majority. The party dispersed because most civil rights issues were already decided and non-Democrats chose to become Republican

A persistent States' Rights Party could send representatives to Congress and the Senate and send presidential elections to the House.

 

[glenn67]

On 1964: A probable Nixon win, against whoever the Democrats muster. Scoop Jackson is a good contender, Humphrey is probably in there, Johnson is probably in there (but, as I outlined, he ain't gonna win), Mo' Udall might give it a shot, and so forth.

I have to disagree with you about Morris Udall. In OTL, Mo Udall was elected to Congress when his brother Stewart became Interior Secretary. With Nixon as President, Stewart Udall stays in Congress and has no aspirations for higher office (maybe he runs for the Senate in 1968 when Carl Hayden retires).

 

[Historico]

Scoop in 64 would likeley become the most appealing ticket, perhaps with Humphry as the Running Mate but, Would the country really stand for 16 years or Republican dominance in the White House?

 

[Electric Monk]

I have to disagree with you about Morris Udall. In OTL, Mo Udall was elected to Congress when his brother Stewart became Interior Secretary. With Nixon as President, Stewart Udall stays in Congress and has no aspirations for higher office (maybe he runs for the Senate in 1968 when Carl Hayden retires).

Good point. Maybe Mo Udall can follow a different career path (Governor?).

 

[alt_historian]

Didn't Kennedy suffer from a chronic back pain? In that case, he would probably die in 1965 or something.

Yeah... and the rest.

He had enough medical problems for ten, and was taking a cocktail of various drugs, some of them rather dubious, to deal with them...

 

[Glass Onion]

interesting so far, in some respects, Nixon was far more qualified to be President than Kennedy was, nevertheless, I think there will be some considerable losses as a result of Kennedy's defeat, for one thing, the whole zeitgeist of the sixties will be radically altered in many respects without the dream like memory of "camelot" Nixon's first term, assuming for the moment reelection, will be seen as Ike's third, at least intially. I also wonder what Nixon will do vis a vi Fidel Castro, now, the Bay of Pigs operation was not going to succeed as planned, even with air support, in all likelihood, however, Nixon may cancell the operation, or devise another means of overthrowing Fidel Castro. Or if we simply see the "Defeat is an orphan" (or whatever the Nixon equivalant would be) speech as per OTL

I wonder who Nixon could tap to run as VP in liu of Lodge, I knew Nixon did not like Lodge, and in part blamed him for defeat, but I am somewhat suprised he'll be dropped from the ticket, that usually doesn't happen.

 

[Mark E.]

Do not forget that in 1960, Kennedy was 43 and Nixon was 47. In any case, the US would have a relatively young president, especially since Eisenhower was the only president (at the time) to pass the age of 70 in the White House.

 

[Tom_B]

This has been done before in varying levels of detail though not recently. One detailed version was a little too soft on Nixon as the creator had a very strong antiKennedy viewpoint.

Some comments about where this seems to be headed:

1] Even while Nixon is relatively virtually no one will think of his administration as Camelot. He might be seen as sort of Republican Truman.

2] He probably will not cut taxes as much as Kennedy (hmm who exactly was the Leftist?)

3] Diem might survive under Nixon (not sure if this is good)

4] I seldom agree with Historico but this time (was there a blue moon) I think he is correct about Jackson/Humphrey as the most likely democratic ticket in 1964.

5] Nixon was very antiporn. If he makes it into a second term he is going to go ballistic over the Memoirs vs Massachusetts decision. Lijewise Nixon is not going to like the Summer of Love.

6] A Nixon space program will be less intense about the Moon race BUT it will allow a greater USAF role (eg. Dynasaur)

7] Kennedy's strategy for Vietnam was Special Forces backed by airpower. With LBJ the Westmoreland view of a not quite conventional landwar took over. Nixon's strategy could be different from both of those.

8] Dropping Lodge is possible but not probable. There are lot of precedents for Presidents marginalizing VP's they don't like (consider Wilson and Marshall).

 

[Glass Onion]

This has been done before in varying levels of detail though not recently. One detailed version was a little too soft on Nixon as the creator had a very strong antiKennedy viewpoint.

Some comments about where this seems to be headed:

1] Even while Nixon is relatively virtually no one will think of his administration as Camelot. He might be seen as sort of Republican Truman.

2] He probably will not cut taxes as much as Kennedy (hmm who exactly was the Leftist?)

3] Diem might survive under Nixon (not sure if this is good)

4] I seldom agree with Historico but this time (was there a blue moon) I think he is correct about Jackson/Humphrey as the most likely democratic ticket in 1964.

5] Nixon was very antiporn. If he makes it into a second term he is going to go ballistic over the Memoirs vs Massachusetts decision. Lijewise Nixon is not going to like the Summer of Love.

6] A Nixon space program will be less intense about the Moon race BUT it will allow a greater USAF role (eg. Dynasaur)

7] Kennedy's strategy for Vietnam was Special Forces backed by airpower. With LBJ the Westmoreland view of a not quite conventional landwar took over. Nixon's strategy could be different from both of those.

8] Dropping Lodge is possible but not probable. There are lot of precedents for Presidents marginalizing VP's they don't like (consider Wilson and Marshall).

1. Agreed
2. Again, I have no reason to assume a tax cut will occur.
3. I think Diem's survives.
4. Why? Not saying it wouldn't be so, just wondering what the reasoning is.
5. Well, I can go either way on ITTL 1964, but there may not be a summer of love sans Kennedy. Butterflies and all that, different zeitgeist.
7. True.
8. Nixon didn't like Lodge, so it's possible.

 

[Derek Jackson]

If Nixon were President either he would have sent ground troops into Cuba -which would have been equivalant of OTL's Vietmam or he would have taken Militry advice in 1962 and there would have been a nuclear war.

 

[Michel Van]

6] A Nixon space program will be less intense about the Moon race BUT it will allow a greater USAF role (eg. Dynasaur)

with Thomas S. Gates, Jr. as U.S. Secretary of Defense. and NOT Robert McNamara
you can rewritten Aerospace History !

Space Flight
Dyna Soar aka X-20A or XMS-1 was planed as manned space bomber & reconnaissance platform
last one is important because U-2 crisis 1960 and some Problems with Corona KH-1 spy sat.
there was need for Manned spy sat in Low orbit in 1960s, so a RS-72 Dyna Soar in 1967 (no M.O.L ?)

who goes Space Race USA vrs USSR ?
that dependent on NASA Mercury program (start under President Eisenhower.) goes on
If NASA had overruled Von Braun on problems with Redstone booster
then had launch on 1961 March 24, Mercury MR-3A. (suborbital)
Al Shepard became the first man in space, three weeks BEVOR Gagarin's flight.

with Sovjets beat the US with Gagarin's flight
Nixon has to go to Moon just like Kennedy to top the Sovjets.
but one difference he takes USAF "Lunex" and not the loser of NASA
http://www.astronautix.com/articles/lunex.htm

Aircraft
without McNamara no F-111 project, but also no F-4 II Phantom and A-7 fighters in USAF.
USAF get his tactical bomber and Navy his air superiority fighter.
also a successor for the B-52 bomber (B-70 program was killt by under President Eisenhower.)
is possible S.A.C. order supersonic B-58B to replace B-52 and B-58C/D for tactical bomber


Wild stuff
that Programs that McNamara stop for good reasion, because they insane dangerous !
USAF Orion Missile Platform (nuclear puls drive) in high earth orbit
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_(nuclear_propulsion)

Project Pluto aka SLAM
a Mach 3 cruise missiles with NUCLEAR engine, SLAM is defacto a Doomsday Device
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pluto
it very possible that Thomas S. Gates puts SLAM in S.A.C. active service

 

[Historico]

4] I seldom agree with Historico but this time (was there a blue moon) I think he is correct about Jackson/Humphrey as the most likely democratic ticket in 1964.

QUOTE]

Aww, Im touched lolBut I think Running Scoop would benefit the
Dems' most in 1964, He would be able to satrap some of Nixon's support in the Pacific Northwest. However Scoop would also have to be aware of the tightrope that his on if he would have to work...View's on Nixon being soft on Communisim depends on how he deals with Castro, Krushcev, and Vietnam during his first term...However, His Neoconservate stance on things such as National Security, but also a ferverent supporter of Civil Rights, might alow him to pick up on OTL Goldwater Strategy by focusing on those Majority White Working Class Voters. He could also target the urban Black Vote by poining out the Ike/Dick approach to Civil rights...

 

[SteveW]

To give you a clue-I'm trying to keep many acts that happened IOTL in place as I'm unconvinced that some of them will go away entirely. For example, there will be a political assasination at some point. There will be trouble with Cuba. There will be friction with Russia. But it should all pan out a little differently...

 

[SteveW]

Nixon's first major test came on 2nd July 1961 when race riots broke out in Omaha, Nebraska. Although the cause is hazy, it is believed to have been caused when some drunken whites attacked a black postman. The rioting went on for 2 nights before Nixon ordered the National Guard in to quell the trouble.

The new Dixiecrats sought immediately to make capital of this, even though Nebraska was a Mid West state. They turned their fire on Nixon, fighting on the message that a vote for the Republicans and a vote for the mainstream Democrats were the same thing.

In Britain, it was looking grim for Harold MacMillan. To deal with the balance of payments issue, he imposed a wage freeze. However, the public unsurprisingly did not take too kindly to this, and a wave of strikes followed. In the Cabinet, plotters were biding their time. Their hand was strengthened the same month when, to great surprise, the seat of Manchester Moss Side was lost to the Liberals in a by-election.

 

[SteveW]

The Democrats were struggling to get a grip after their loss. Some Protestants were actively blaming Kennedy's Catholicism; Catholics were blaming the Southern Democrats, claiming that they didn't want a Catholic and hadn't worked hard enough. The Dixiecrats' re-emergence was another source of concern.

John F. Kennedy, now out of the Senate after the presidential loss, had been replaced by his brother Edward. JFK himself was back in Massachusetts. It was being rumoured that he would run for Governor in the 1962 gubernatorial election.

Senator Johnson meanwhile was still master of the Senate- a law passed in Texas had allowed him to keep his seat despite the 1960 defeat. However, he was being undermined by the defection of four Southern senators to the Dixiecrat cause.