The 1960 presidential election in Brazil was no contest; it was easily won by Jânio Quadros, who ran as the candidate of a coalition of opposition parties--his own National Labor Party (PTN), the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), and the largest opposition party, the conservative National Democratic Union (UDN). Quadros defeated Henrique Lott, candidate of the ruling coalition, 48.3-32.9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Brazilian_presidential_election Quadros combined an appeal for anti-waste and anti-corruption measures in domestic affairs with advocacy of an independent foreign policy for Brazil, including good relations with Castro's Cuba. (The latter was one of several things that made the UDN uneasy about Quadros, but they still backed him for lack of a credible alternative.)
However, in Brazil, the president and the vice-president are elected separately rather than on a ticket. So João Goulart, a member of the leftish-populist Vargasite
Brazilian Labor Party (Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro or PTB) who was Lott's running mate, narrowly defeated Quadros' running mate, Milton Campos, a conservative who unlike Quadros was an actual member of the UDN and had indeed served as its president. Goulart got 36.1 percent of the vote, Campos 33.1 percent.
Suppose Campos had won? In OTL, Quadros' sudden resignation in 1961 "is commonly thought to have been a move to increase his power, expecting to return to the presidency by the acclamation of the Brazilian people or by the request of the National Congress of Brazil and the military. Based on Goulart's unpopularity with the military and other conservative elements, he likely expected that his resignation would not be accepted." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jânio_Quadros If that is the case, he would presumably not have resigned if Campos was his heir; that would just mean handing power to his former allies in the UDN (who had become alienated from him, especially over foreign policy) and he could have no delusions that the military would not accept Campos.
So what happens? Is there still a coup in 1964? (In OTL, Campos became Minister of Justice for the new military regime but resigned in 1965 when he saw Instutional Act No. 2 coming--that act abolished the existing political parties, leaving only the new government ARENA party and the "official opposition" MDB.)
However, in Brazil, the president and the vice-president are elected separately rather than on a ticket. So João Goulart, a member of the leftish-populist Vargasite
Brazilian Labor Party (Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro or PTB) who was Lott's running mate, narrowly defeated Quadros' running mate, Milton Campos, a conservative who unlike Quadros was an actual member of the UDN and had indeed served as its president. Goulart got 36.1 percent of the vote, Campos 33.1 percent.
Suppose Campos had won? In OTL, Quadros' sudden resignation in 1961 "is commonly thought to have been a move to increase his power, expecting to return to the presidency by the acclamation of the Brazilian people or by the request of the National Congress of Brazil and the military. Based on Goulart's unpopularity with the military and other conservative elements, he likely expected that his resignation would not be accepted." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jânio_Quadros If that is the case, he would presumably not have resigned if Campos was his heir; that would just mean handing power to his former allies in the UDN (who had become alienated from him, especially over foreign policy) and he could have no delusions that the military would not accept Campos.
So what happens? Is there still a coup in 1964? (In OTL, Campos became Minister of Justice for the new military regime but resigned in 1965 when he saw Instutional Act No. 2 coming--that act abolished the existing political parties, leaving only the new government ARENA party and the "official opposition" MDB.)
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