Milton Campos elected vice-president of Brazil in 1960

The 1960 presidential election in Brazil was no contest; it was easily won by Jânio Quadros, who ran as the candidate of a coalition of opposition parties--his own National Labor Party (PTN), the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), and the largest opposition party, the conservative National Democratic Union (UDN). Quadros defeated Henrique Lott, candidate of the ruling coalition, 48.3-32.9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Brazilian_presidential_election Quadros combined an appeal for anti-waste and anti-corruption measures in domestic affairs with advocacy of an independent foreign policy for Brazil, including good relations with Castro's Cuba. (The latter was one of several things that made the UDN uneasy about Quadros, but they still backed him for lack of a credible alternative.)

However, in Brazil, the president and the vice-president are elected separately rather than on a ticket. So João Goulart, a member of the leftish-populist Vargasite
Brazilian Labor Party (Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro or PTB) who was Lott's running mate, narrowly defeated Quadros' running mate, Milton Campos, a conservative who unlike Quadros was an actual member of the UDN and had indeed served as its president. Goulart got 36.1 percent of the vote, Campos 33.1 percent.

Suppose Campos had won? In OTL, Quadros' sudden resignation in 1961 "is commonly thought to have been a move to increase his power, expecting to return to the presidency by the acclamation of the Brazilian people or by the request of the National Congress of Brazil and the military. Based on Goulart's unpopularity with the military and other conservative elements, he likely expected that his resignation would not be accepted." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jânio_Quadros If that is the case, he would presumably not have resigned if Campos was his heir; that would just mean handing power to his former allies in the UDN (who had become alienated from him, especially over foreign policy) and he could have no delusions that the military would not accept Campos.

So what happens? Is there still a coup in 1964? (In OTL, Campos became Minister of Justice for the new military regime but resigned in 1965 when he saw Instutional Act No. 2 coming--that act abolished the existing political parties, leaving only the new government ARENA party and the "official opposition" MDB.)
 
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Suppose Campos had won?
Sadly I think it is impossible. Jango was Vargas sucessor and he had more votes than Quadros himself. The UDN party on another hand was unlecetable since they lacked support from the lower and middle class, it was a time of growth and interventionism, and also of progressism and the UDN was a mix of conservatism and liberalism.

That being said, for the sake of scenario, Milton would have a lot of his policies disrupted by his lack of popular support, even if the army gives him a blank check (that means, not couping him since he's right wing), the vargist coalition still had 181 seats versus 70 of the UDN. Of these 181, 115 are from the PSD party that was on some ways split, so even if one third of the PSD might collaborate with the UDN, it is still too hard for him to pass reforms.

Another problem is that if he's trying to pass everything that the UDN wants, well, he might get removed on a popular coup like happened with Gustavo Rojas on Colombia, the party was against the minimun wage, against many worker's regulations, the conservative wing wanted to throw woman back into the kitchen, they were against the public education system (something Lott tried to capitalize on, but he lost since Quadros, the president who won was not from the UDN per se).

So, a coup won't happen, he cannot be blamed as a commie, but he would have a strongly disrupted government and he could collapse and be impeached like Carlos Luz and Café Filho, the last two UDN inclined presidents.

I gonna call more people to comment. @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro
 
Actually, I think Milton Campos could win. One of the interesting facts of the 1960 Election was Quadros never fully supported a single person for the vice-presidential slot - sometimes he would support Campos, sometimes he would mention another name, including Ademar de Barros vice-president mate(BTW, the numbers I get from Wikipedia show that João Goulart had 1.1 million less votes than Jânio Quadros(5.6 million votes for president), and 210,000 votes more than Milton Campos(about 4.2 million votes for vice-president)). Of course, Quadros did that because he wanted Goulart as his vice-president, in an attempt to hold any conservative opposition(mainly the military) hostage to his plans. If you get Jânio Quadros fully behind his ticket-mate, he gets elected.

As for what would happen in this case, a bit hard to say. As mentioned above, Quadros wasn't that interested in compromise; had he been interested, he would have backed his ticket-mate(which is what happens here, so...). So, while he still has a Congressional majority against him, he might have some success in doing something(I don't think he tries to resign here). And the can is kicked down to the 1965 election...
 
Actually, I think Milton Campos could win. One of the interesting facts of the 1960 Election was Quadros never fully supported a single person for the vice-presidential slot - sometimes he would support Campos, sometimes he would mention another name, including Ademar de Barros vice-president mate(BTW, the numbers I get from Wikipedia show that João Goulart had 1.1 million less votes than Jânio Quadros(5.6 million votes for president), and 210,000 votes more than Milton Campos(about 4.2 million votes for vice-president)). Of course, Quadros did that because he wanted Goulart as his vice-president, in an attempt to hold any conservative opposition(mainly the military) hostage to his plans. If you get Jânio Quadros fully behind his ticket-mate, he gets elected.

As for what would happen in this case, a bit hard to say. As mentioned above, Quadros wasn't that interested in compromise; had he been interested, he would have backed his ticket-mate(which is what happens here, so...). So, while he still has a Congressional majority against him, he might have some success in doing something(I don't think he tries to resign here). And the can is kicked down to the 1965 election...
I saw on Eduardo Bueno video on Janio that he had more votes than Jango, oh well... my error.
 
Well, Dante Pellacani and the trade unions under his command could stir up a lot of trouble through general strikes and similar actions, and hardliners within the army could overthrow Campos if they think he's not strong enough to handle these "communist infiltrators". The Campanha da Legalidade as we know it will certainly be butterflied away, and Leonel Brizola's rise will be slower than OTL. Don't expect him to run for a seat in the state of Guanabara, for example.

On the other hand, it will be curious to see just how Washington will handle Brazil. Would they not invest so many dollars in funding right-wing campaigns through sockpuppets like IBAD, for example? If so, the Campos administration could suffer a crushing defeat in the 1962 gubernatorial and legislative elections, and there would be butterflies all over the place thanks to that. We could have guys like Waldir Pires and Egidio Michaelsen becoming governors of Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul respectively (the former would be an excellent presidential candidate for PSD, young, charming and very progressive) rather than Lomanto Júnior and Ildo Meneghetti (the latter actively supported the coup).
 
The Campanha da Legalidade as we know it will certainly be butterflied away, and Leonel Brizola's rise will be slower than OTL. Don't expect him to run for a seat in the state of Guanabara, for example.
Agreed, which would make the 1965 election to be disputed by JK, Lacerda and Goulart. My money is on JK winning, with some UDN support.

On the other hand, it will be curious to see just how Washington will handle Brazil. Would they not invest so many dollars in funding right-wing campaigns through sockpuppets like IBAD, for example?
The US would invest less money on Brazil, but I think it would reverse that policy on 1962 if the Quadros(I still think he would be President here) Administration gets too much of a beating.
 
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