Milosevic ditches Croatia but keeps Bosnia

Please don't do that. It looks desperate. Anyways, if he does that it looks weak, and possibly treasonous. It would also end up with the Croatians being able to do what they want with the huge chunks of Serbian populated land they have, and I can't see the Serbs there just lieing down or leaving on their own accord. And oddly enough, googling ethnic maps of Yugoslavia, more recent, as well as less detailed, maps show huge areas that were previously shown as Serbian were completely eliminated. How about a slide trade in Herzovigina and Dalmatia, where the chunks of Serb and Croat land are traded? I imagine the Yugoslavs would want to secure their coastline, and there is a bit of coast near that. Maybe Ragusa as well?
 
Inspired by this old thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-and-croatia-but-not-bh-and-macedonia.241964/: What if Milosevic, instead, of trying to hold to and attacking both Croatia and Bosnia, realized, that, he couldn't hold on to both and so ditched Croatia and let it secede but focused all Serb forces on stopping Bosnia's secession from Yugoslavia? Would the international community have intervened?

Croatia and B&H did have not decided to go away in same time, one decided in 1991, another in 1992.
Openly ditching Croatian Serbs before Bosnia is 'secured' plays into hands of both Croatian and B&H governments. We can just imagine dispair in Knin's leadership, now that they are left out in cold - no JNA support, no fuel at bargain prices, no material support. Croatia can and will support Bosnian Croats, whose will ally themselves with Sarajevo in fight against common enemy, just like in OTL 1992.
Sarajevo will not have any illusions (no Izetbegović's statement 'this is not my war' in early 1992), thus will brace themselves for the oncoming onslaught.

Please don't do that. It looks desperate. Anyways, if he does that it looks weak, and possibly treasonous. It would also end up with the Croatians being able to do what they want with the huge chunks of Serbian populated land they have, and I can't see the Serbs there just lieing down or leaving on their own accord. And oddly enough, googling ethnic maps of Yugoslavia, more recent, as well as less detailed, maps show huge areas that were previously shown as Serbian were completely eliminated. How about a slide trade in Herzovigina and Dalmatia, where the chunks of Serb and Croat land are traded? I imagine the Yugoslavs would want to secure their coastline, and there is a bit of coast near that. Maybe Ragusa as well?

Ex-Yu (Serbia, Montenegro) tried to capture Dubrovink and it's area in 1991/92, didn't managed it. Tuđman was not keen on giving one sq inch of Croatia, not after flood of promises for independence & integrity in 1989-91 that brought him at the helm.
 
Croatia and B&H did have not decided to go away in same time, one decided in 1991, another in 1992.
Openly ditching Croatian Serbs before Bosnia is 'secured' plays into hands of both Croatian and B&H governments. We can just imagine dispair in Knin's leadership, now that they are left out in cold - no JNA support, no fuel at bargain prices, no material support. Croatia can and will support Bosnian Croats, whose will ally themselves with Sarajevo in fight against common enemy, just like in OTL 1992.
Sarajevo will not have any illusions (no Izetbegović's statement 'this is not my war' in early 1992), thus will brace themselves for the oncoming onslaught.



Ex-Yu (Serbia, Montenegro) tried to capture Dubrovink and it's area in 1991/92, didn't managed it. Tuđman was not keen on giving one sq inch of Croatia, not after flood of promises for independence & integrity in 1989-91 that brought him at the helm.

I think, that, together the Yugoslav Army and local Serb militias could manage to defeat the Bosniaks and the Croats in Bosnia.
 
As others have said- it's hard to conceive a scenario where Milošević does this early on. He thought the massive arsenal of the YPA could win him everything, and thus achieve Greater Serbia. I guess a POD that makes Croatia stronger militarily would do the trick. Territorial Defense weapons not being taken out of Croatia, perhaps?
 
As others have said- it's hard to conceive a scenario where Milošević does this early on. He thought the massive arsenal of the YPA could win him everything, and thus achieve Greater Serbia. I guess a POD that makes Croatia stronger militarily would do the trick. Territorial Defense weapons not being taken out of Croatia, perhaps?

Tuđman kept a keen eye on developments in B&H, since the Croats living there represented a significant proportion of population. Many of them dreamed about being within Croatian borders, while large Croatian diaspora (originating from many place of ex-Yu, including B&H) supporting not only Tuđman in quest for Croatian independence. So, with weapons & equipment of the Territorial Defense not taken away by JNA, Croatian forces gain a huge boost in efficiency. Plenty of the gear will end up in the hands of B&H Croats, and very possibly, in the hands of the B&H Muslims, making the task of Serb forces (including the JNA) even tougher than in OTL.
 
The idea is, that, the Yugoslav Army is stronger in this timeline because it has not wasted resources in Croatia.

JNA was stocking up for decades, 1st because of prospects of open war vs. Soviets and their satelites from late 1940s, then beacuse they regarded NATO as a threat. That is more than 40 years of making warehouses, filling them up to the brim with guns, ammo, food etc, then making new warehouses and filing those. Leadership of the JNA was probably happy to have some of the 1950s and 60s vintage ammo being used up against Croat forces in 1991. Basically - they lost just a portion of what was in warehouses.
What they needed by 1992, and what especially the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia were short of, was manpower - someone to receive a rifle and to serve as infantry. Front lines were very long, and artillery and tanks are not that good in covering the hilly and forested terrain. With Slovenia and Croatia going away in 1991, and B&H and Macedonia following suit, Serb forces all around still have the same problem as it was the case historically. The Kosovo Albanians will not cut it, even for the forces from Serbia proper.
War in Croatia also teached the Serb forces some important and valuable lessons.

Lack of manpower in Serb forces was a key for survival of B&H, and one of reasons why the SAO Krajina folded up in 4 days. It almost cost the Bosnian Serbs their Republic in 1995.
 
JNA was stocking up for decades, 1st because of prospects of open war vs. Soviets and their satelites from late 1940s, then beacuse they regarded NATO as a threat. That is more than 40 years of making warehouses, filling them up to the brim with guns, ammo, food etc, then making new warehouses and filing those. Leadership of the JNA was probably happy to have some of the 1950s and 60s vintage ammo being used up against Croat forces in 1991. Basically - they lost just a portion of what was in warehouses.
What they needed by 1992, and what especially the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia were short of, was manpower - someone to receive a rifle and to serve as infantry. Front lines were very long, and artillery and tanks are not that good in covering the hilly and forested terrain. With Slovenia and Croatia going away in 1991, and B&H and Macedonia following suit, Serb forces all around still have the same problem as it was the case historically. The Kosovo Albanians will not cut it, even for the forces from Serbia proper.
War in Croatia also teached the Serb forces some important and valuable lessons.

Lack of manpower in Serb forces was a key for survival of B&H, and one of reasons why the SAO Krajina folded up in 4 days. It almost cost the Bosnian Serbs their Republic in 1995.

As I understand though, there were some Bosniak politicians like Fikret Abdic who were in favour of Bosnia remaining part of Yugoslavia.
 
As I understand though, there were some Bosniak politicians like Fikret Abdic who were in favour of Bosnia remaining part of Yugoslavia.

For better or for worse, Abdić's influence was limited to the north-western tip of Bosnia, the Moslem population there being an island within the Serbian 'lake'. Plus, peope at Bihać, the biggest town with Moslem population there, was not willing to follow Abdić.
 

Bison

Banned
Honestly, Bosnia is such a mess, no border is viable except for a united, multipolar Yugoslavia.

Dare I say, though, Tuđman would be willing to grant Croatian Serbs autonomy and support in Bosnia in exchange for annexation of Hercegovina - still, though, itd be a mess. What woulf you do with cities like Mostar, that are split like 50 50? Really, wide ranging integration of the West Balkans is the only good solution.
 
Honestly, Bosnia is such a mess, no border is viable except for a united, multipolar Yugoslavia.

Dare I say, though, Tuđman would be willing to grant Croatian Serbs autonomy and support in Bosnia in exchange for annexation of Hercegovina - still, though, itd be a mess. What woulf you do with cities like Mostar, that are split like 50 50? Really, wide ranging integration of the West Balkans is the only good solution.
Integration leads to Serbian hegemony, and then there's bloodbath. Strict separation of peoples is the only solution that would prevent future conflict.
 
For better or for worse, Abdić's influence was limited to the north-western tip of Bosnia, the Moslem population there being an island within the Serbian 'lake'. Plus, peope at Bihać, the biggest town with Moslem population there, was not willing to follow Abdić.

Adil Zulfikarpašić, vice-president of Bosnia was also in favour of Bosnia remaining part of Yugoslavia.
 

Bison

Banned
Integration leads to Serbian hegemony, and then there's bloodbath. Strict separation of peoples is the only solution that would prevent future conflict.

Now that's the root of the problem - Serbs, Croats, and Bosnia lived peacefully together for centuries, in fact, only 30 years ago nobody wouldve thought a war could ever break out here. The only thing that separates is religion, and even today, its not like ordinary Serbs and ordinary Bosniaks are at each other's throats.

Rooted here, as in every war, are the interests of the politicians and outside powers, rather than the people themselves. The notion of keeping peace through separation is ridiculous and has been proven wrong as in Bosnia following the Dayton agreement, so anywhere in the world. Also look at an ethnic map, man, how are you gonna separate that. There's no proper borders, the only you'd get out of total separation is a cluster fuck even worse than it is now.
 
Now that's the root of the problem - Serbs, Croats, and Bosnia lived peacefully together for centuries, in fact, only 30 years ago nobody wouldve thought a war could ever break out here. The only thing that separates is religion, and even today, its not like ordinary Serbs and ordinary Bosniaks are at each other's throats.

Rooted here, as in every war, are the interests of the politicians and outside powers, rather than the people themselves. The notion of keeping peace through separation is ridiculous and has been proven wrong as in Bosnia following the Dayton agreement, so anywhere in the world. Also look at an ethnic map, man, how are you gonna separate that. There's no proper borders, the only you'd get out of total separation is a cluster fuck even worse than it is now.
Until WW1, the stern hand of Vienna held things "peaceful" in Bosnia. Serbian expansionists wanted Bosnia, and kicked off the whole mess in Sarajevo. Back then, the religious identity of Muslims hadn't transcended yet to an ethnic level. But peace was fragile. Today, I know peace can only be achieved by despotic foreign rule. Or ethnic border redrawing+ peacetime population transfers.
 
Adil Zulfikarpašić, vice-president of Bosnia was also in favour of Bosnia remaining part of Yugoslavia.

There was probably of number of Moslems that wanted to remain in what is left of Yugoslavia, however main body of the SDA was for the referendum, and so was majority of Moslem population.
 
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