Militarist Position in Japan Post-Mukden Incident

What would happen to the miltiarist faction in Japan if the Mukden Incident resulted in a poor outcome for the Kwantung Army?

I have a scenario where China is much more unified and coordinated than in OTL, which makes the Mukden Incident and Japan's subsequent invasion of Manchuria turn out very poorly for the Kwantung Army.

What would happen to the Militarist Faction in Japan in the following scenarios?

1.) If the Kwantung Army gets repelled entirely from Manchuria and forced back across the Korean border, or if significant Kwantung Army formations are encircled and destroyed within China.

2.) If the Kwantung Army fights to a stalemate and voluntarily withdraws after taking heavy losses and squeezing some concessions from the Chinese.

3.) If the Kwantung Army takes far more casualties than in OTL taking Manchuria.

My main question is, would the Japanese government increase the scope of the war or would the Militarists suffer some sort of loss in prestige?
 
1.) If the Kwantung Army gets repelled entirely from Manchuria and forced back across the Korean border, or if significant Kwantung Army formations are encircled and destroyed within China.

I think Army loses all credibility in this scenario. Japan turns somewhere else, possibly attempting a peaceful alliance with Chiang against CCP.

2.) If the Kwantung Army fights to a stalemate and voluntarily withdraws after taking heavy losses and squeezing some concessions from the Chinese.

The generals in immediate command are disgraced and given exciting new jobs in the South Seas or Korea garrisons. Slim possibility of the Kodoha faction losing all support and never getting embroiled into further war.

3.) If the Kwantung Army takes far more casualties than in OTL taking Manchuria.

this is the least clear situation. It is quite possible that events remain pretty much the same until 1937, when they attack a better prepared China and lose badly or get into stalemate much earlier.

My main question is, would the Japanese government increase the scope of the war or would the Militarists suffer some sort of loss in prestige?

In at least the first two scenarios that ultra militarist get replaced and their position losses support. The third would most likely result in an increased scope of war.
 
ITTL, Sun Zhongshan lives another 20 years), which means continued CPC/GMD cooperation (Sun commands massive respect amongst all sections of Chinese society and neither Jiang Jieshi nor Chen Duxiu would make a move until Sun dies).

This will free up someone competent, like Peng Dehuai will lead the defense of Manchuria (seriously, look at what he did in Korea against the Americans despite being severely outgunned). It will also mean that Zhang Xueliang will likely be at home and not asleep at the wheel. It would also mean that the Nanjing Government would actually resist instead of sitting on their asses doing nothing.

There are multiple possible outcomes to this though.

Another possibility is that the Japanese see progress in Manchuria is going badly and decide to launch an all-out attack against China, but we're still at the point where the militarists haven't taken over entirely yet.
 
ITTL, Sun Zhongshan lives another 20 years), which means continued CPC/GMD cooperation (Sun commands massive respect amongst all sections of Chinese society and neither Jiang Jieshi nor Chen Duxiu would make a move until Sun dies).

This will free up someone competent, like Peng Dehuai will lead the defense of Manchuria (seriously, look at what he did in Korea against the Americans despite being severely outgunned). It will also mean that Zhang Xueliang will likely be at home and not asleep at the wheel. It would also mean that the Nanjing Government would actually resist instead of sitting on their asses doing nothing.

There are multiple possible outcomes to this though.

Another possibility is that the Japanese see progress in Manchuria is going badly and decide to launch an all-out attack against China, but we're still at the point where the militarists haven't taken over entirely yet.

Sun Yat Sen lived for another 20 years?:eek:
 
The last possibility is that the Chinese repulse the border incursion and Sun, who has a working relationship with the Japanese, decides to allow the Japanese government to make a face-saving exit.

That would change things, definitely.
 

Cook

Banned
What would happen to the miltiarist faction in Japan if...
An important thing to not was that it wasn’t faction, it was factions. Japan never solidified into a single power block like in Germany and Italy; right through until the end of the Pacific War Japan was ruled by competing power cliques. Strategy was regularly changed with the rise and fall of individuals within the Army and in government.

A failure in Manchuria has the potential to destroy the careers of one faction, while strengthening another power block; possibly one with an even more aggressive, more interventionist, and less rational outlook. That was often the case in Japan in the 1930s.
 
I agree with Cook. The Navy was, at times, a bit more afflicted with victory disease than their Army cousins. It was, after all, the IJN legitimately thought that thought they could invade mainland Australia whereas the IJA faction saw the proposal for the farce that it was.

But more to the point, it the IJN was the faction pushing for a campaign of conquest to sweep through the colonial possessions in SE Asia over the Army's focus on expanding Japan's SOI in China.
 
So Japan's reaction may just be highly unpredictable.

Great. Nice to know China's neighbors are sane.
 
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