Militarily stronger Georgia during the 2008 South Ossetia War ?

Lets assume Saakashvili had put more money into Georgia's military, specifically buying more fighter jets, attack helicopters and providing more advanced training for the Georgian Army, plus more S.A.M sytems.

Also, if Georgian special forces were able to destroy the Roki tunnel, the main connection allowing Russian forces to cross into South Ossetia, and, combined with the more better equipped and trained forces than in otl, would Georgia be able to hold out for longer than five days ?
 
Lets assume Saakashvili had put more money into Georgia's military, specifically buying more fighter jets, attack helicopters and providing more advanced training for the Georgian Army, plus more S.A.M sytems.

Also, if Georgian special forces were able to destroy the Roki tunnel, the main connection allowing Russian forces to cross into South Ossetia, and, combined with the more better equipped and trained forces than in otl, would Georgia be able to hold out for longer than five days ?

Maybe a few days longer, but the end result would be the same. There would still be Abkhazia, which the Russians could use as a base area.
 
And the OSCE would still report Georgia shot first. This wouldn't affect the US, but it might reflect the rest of Europe. And if Georgia protests things like other countries...
 

Hyperion

Banned
Depends on the training and what equipment they have.

If your talking a couple dozen F-16s, that could make a huge difference in the air.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
They share a LAND BORDER with Russia. The total Georgian military (active Duty) numbers 37,000, including Air Forces (3,000) or less than 2 divisions and operates 12 ground attack aircraft. To maintain that they spend 4% of their GDP or $440 Million (as a comparative the U.S. spends 4.9%, UK 2.7%, Russia 3.5%, Israel 6.9%).

Lets say Georgia decide to destroy what little economy exists and doubles the military budget to $900 Million. If they put every cent into Air Force procurement they could afford roughly TWO F-16 per year once parts and general support are included (this is extrapolated from the proposed $4.2 BILLION sale of 18 F-16Q to Iraq that included parts and general support), or FOUR JAS 49 Gripen (Based on recent Thai purchases), or 8-10 MiG-29 (depending on the parts/general support deal). It is important to note that the cost of the actual aircraft usually makes up no more than 40% of the purchase cost of aircraft from a 3rd party state). So they can add between 10 and 50 fighter bombers over a five year period (about as long as their economy would be able to handle the extra cost before it simply imploded). The could also have gone with more ground attack (Su-25 since they already had the infrastructure) for less, probably 36 extra aircraft for $100 million or so.

The Russian ARMY numbers 395,000, and 58th Army, the source of the 2008 invasion battalions outnumbers and outguns the Georgian military. The same goes for air forces (every one of the Russian AF bases in the region operates at least two squadrons of 15 aircraft) and naval forces.

Georgia could have bankrupted itself and would still have been nothing but a speedbump.
 
A bit more military could have modified the narrative to make the Georgians out to be 'plucky' rather than absolutely curbstomped, but neither the Russians or the Georgians were going to abide another Afghanistan or Chechnya which means Georgia is still a speed bump.
 
Pretty much what CalBear said. But to put it another way, the Georgians were trained and equiped by the United States, you can't really get better in some senses. There was simply no way the Georgians could have changed the outcome.
 

Vladimir

Banned
The Russians would take longer and have heavier losses, but they would get the job done eventually.

If the Roki Tunnel is destroyed, the Russians might rely on increased airstrikes and use Abkhazia as a base from which to invade Georgia. I would expect the Russians to fight their way into Georgia, then circle around and enter South Ossetia from Georgian territory.
 
Lets assume Saakashvili had put more money into Georgia's military, specifically buying more fighter jets, attack helicopters and providing more advanced training for the Georgian Army, plus more S.A.M sytems.

I think the key would be tailoring the Georgian Armed forces for defence of Georgia rather than to be jack of all trades. This would mean getting rid of Air Force aircraft and Navy combat ships as they just ate budget instead of providing defense capabilities. Get rid of armor forces as the budget is too small for them. Instead, focus on key systems capable of hurting invader.

This would be my suggestion:

Overall:
-Focus on giving the invader large initial losses in order to create an impression of Georgia capable of resisting an invader and also creating a threshold of attack.

Naval defence:
-No surface combatants, just police and coast guard craft
-Modern SSM battery (RBS-15, Exocet or something similar, truck mounted) with coastal radar and opto-electronic surveillance system.
-Some heavy ATGM's (Hellfire, Spike LR etc.) for local coastal defence. Works great on armor too
-Get training help from Norway or Sweden for coastal defence

Air defence:
-Sell the aircraft, sell most of the helicopters. No use in high threat environment.
-Leave, say, 4 Mi-24's and 8 Mi-8's for utility and special forces operations and OPFOR roles. Upgrade them to borg level.
-Focus on SAM's. Georgia is a very small country. SAM's are good enough, survivable and cheap. Imagine what Georgian AD had been capable of if resources were not wasted on aircraft and helos.

Ground forces.
-Sell tanks and BMP's, say, sans a company each for OPFOR duties.
-Key combat arms: Infantry and artillery. Focus.
-Focus on defence: Buy good ATGM's and thermal vision equipment to build a defensive network based on independent small combat units. Key weapon systems: ATGM's, machine guns, sniper rifles. Back them up with quality artillery (which Georgia, in OTL, had, but did not use to best effect). Link everything up with quality comms system. Train. Contact Hezbollah for expert advice :)
-Develop a doctrine in which artillery can support the independent small combat units. Georgia is a small country in which modern artillery range is capable of overlapping a large number of territory. Train.
 
Georgia could have bankrupted itself and would still have been nothing but a speedbump.

True, but more expensive for Russia if Georgia had focused on using the money on defending Georgia instead of building a second world imitation of a first world military.
 
I think the key would be tailoring the Georgian Armed forces for defence of Georgia rather than to be jack of all trades. This would mean getting rid of Air Force aircraft and Navy combat ships as they just ate budget instead of providing defense capabilities. Get rid of armor forces as the budget is too small for them. Instead, focus on key systems capable of hurting invader.

This would be my suggestion:

Overall:
-Focus on giving the invader large initial losses in order to create an impression of Georgia capable of resisting an invader and also creating a threshold of attack.

Naval defence:
-No surface combatants, just police and coast guard craft
-Modern SSM battery (RBS-15, Exocet or something similar, truck mounted) with coastal radar and opto-electronic surveillance system.
-Some heavy ATGM's (Hellfire, Spike LR etc.) for local coastal defence. Works great on armor too
-Get training help from Norway or Sweden for coastal defence

Air defence:
-Sell the aircraft, sell most of the helicopters. No use in high threat environment.
-Leave, say, 4 Mi-24's and 8 Mi-8's for utility and special forces operations and OPFOR roles. Upgrade them to borg level.
-Focus on SAM's. Georgia is a very small country. SAM's are good enough, survivable and cheap. Imagine what Georgian AD had been capable of if resources were not wasted on aircraft and helos.

Ground forces.
-Sell tanks and BMP's, say, sans a company each for OPFOR duties.
-Key combat arms: Infantry and artillery. Focus.
-Focus on defence: Buy good ATGM's and thermal vision equipment to build a defensive network based on independent small combat units. Key weapon systems: ATGM's, machine guns, sniper rifles. Back them up with quality artillery (which Georgia, in OTL, had, but did not use to best effect). Link everything up with quality comms system. Train. Contact Hezbollah for expert advice :)
-Develop a doctrine in which artillery can support the independent small combat units. Georgia is a small country in which modern artillery range is capable of overlapping a large number of territory. Train.

but would this have happened OTL before the South Ossetian War?
Would Georgia have given up it's air force, navy, AND tanks?????
Politically, it would be seen as suicide!!!!
 

Hoist40

Banned
The thing about having Georgia build a all defensive military is that then they would not have attacked South Ossetia and the Russian peacekeepers there and then the Russians and Abkhazians would not have counterattacked into Georgia. So no war.
 
The thing about having Georgia build a all defensive military is that then they would not have attacked South Ossetia and the Russian peacekeepers there and then the Russians and Abkhazians would not have counterattacked into Georgia. So no war.

Ah, no, I'm not sure that follows. Just because the military has been structured in a particular way doesn't mean that it will be asked to do only those things it's intended for. Or, put it another way - don't underestimate the ability of the politicians in charge to misuse the tools at their disposal. Having a defensively structured military does not mean common sense will break out about what to do with it.
 
That makes it even less likely that they will make it to the tunnel than, and that's more of a gap unconquered which Ossetian militias and Russian reinforcements can move from.
 
Georgians would first need a COMPETENT leadership. And not one that panicked when the Russians attacked. I.e. IIRC, the vaunted training by US advisors took only a few days/unit. Instead of a few weeks at least. Sakaszwili & co. believed days of training was enough.:eek: Not mentioning not recognising what "lengthened manouvers" of 58th Russian Army while the clashes in South Ossetia intensified meant. Seriously, the Georgian HQ didn't realise that Russia is baiting them as a prelude for armed invasion. What were they, blind?
 
Georgians would first need a COMPETENT leadership. And not one that panicked when the Russians attacked. I.e. IIRC, the vaunted training by US advisors took only a few days/unit. Instead of a few weeks at least. Sakaszwili & co. believed days of training was enough.:eek: Not mentioning not recognising what "lengthened manouvers" of 58th Russian Army while the clashes in South Ossetia intensified meant. Seriously, the Georgian HQ didn't realise that Russia is baiting them as a prelude for armed invasion. What were they, blind?
Well, Saakashvilli was shown on worldwide TV chewing on his tie...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49wOzZdWWYM
 
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