Mild Versailles - WWII anyway?

Redbeard

Banned
Inspired from another thread I wonder about the consequences of a "mild Versailles".

We usually asume that the OTL Versailles treaty was a major cause for Nazism and WWII, but the Nazi party actually had a very marginal and dwindling support in the mid and late 20s - until the depression in 1929 - whereafter popular German support for the Nazi party accelerated.

IOW it appears like it was more the depression than Versailles that created Nazism - comments?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Valdemar II

Banned
While the depression brought Hitler to power, I doubt he would have been succesfull without the chaotic years of Weimar Republic. I imagine that without the hyperinflation of the early tweenties, the German government could have used more radicale and succefull means to battle the inflation, without the humiliation at the hand of the French in the same periode, I think people would see SPD as a better solution to the problems, rather than a hypernationalist party supported by the economical elite. So yes I think a milder Versailles would have stopped the Nazis.
 
Probably a mixture.
Take the Dolkstoss-legend, Bleeding Borders, threat of communism and add the greatest financial depression!

Even if you take away the Bleeding Borders you're still left with most of what fed parties like the Nazies - and they were all over Europe.

Remember WE still remember 1864! If we had been 50 million peoples... ;)
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Probably a mixture.
Take the Dolkstoss-legend, Bleeding Borders, threat of communism and add the greatest financial depression!

Even if you take away the Bleeding Borders you're still left with most of what fed parties like the Nazies - and they were all over Europe.

Remember WE still remember 1864! If we had been 50 million peoples... ;)

Yes but we took the rational choice in 1920, and while that was somewhat a result of pure pragmatism for small country, I still think Germany could make a rational choice too, even Hitler did that in Tyrol, Elsass-Lothringe (the annexion in 1940 was purely oppotunistic) and North Schleswig.
 
Almost certainly. The immediate political and economic chaos post-WWI is unavoidable for Germany and without substantial territorial gains the grudge is going to be there.
 
Yes but we took the rational choice in 1920, and while that was somewhat a result of pure pragmatism for small country, I still think Germany could make a rational choice too, even Hitler did that in Tyrol, Elsass-Lothringe (the annexion in 1940 was purely oppotunistic) and North Schleswig.

WE did, our home-grown Nazi's, North Schleswig ones didn't. Remember we had Nazi terrorism in 1937-8.

Rational choice!!! With France stuffing it down the throat of Foreign Min. Scavenius!!!
 
Seeing the rise of Nazism as the result of the depression is a bit short sighted as you indicate. The depression was a factor as was Versailles but the Weimar republic was unstable. Many political parties were unwilling to cooperate and were very rigid in their ideological beliefs; hence the inability of the Weimar republic to create a functioning government. Germany had twenty governments between 1919 and 1933 and only two served the full four years. The German people at the time were still afraid of communism thanks to the spartakist revolution of 1919 and the subsequent chaos on the streets. And then there was the hyperinflation of course.

The people wanted stability and the Nazis could provide that; or so it seemed. Hitler turned out to be an uncontrolable raving lunatic as history as proven. Big business also greeted the rise of the Nazis as Hitler had transformed the NSDAP/DAP into a conservative, pro-business and militaristic party. During the early 20s the Nazi party had some collectivist elements. In short:

  • fear of communism
  • political instability with communists and Stahlhelm and other militias trying to kill each other and the government unable to stop them
  • weak political parties, unable to form a working government to solve Germany's many problems
  • 1929 depression
  • hyperinflation
  • Treaty of Versailles
  • broad appeal of the Nazis.
led to the rise of Hitler and to WW2. I must say that Versailles did a great deal to worsen Germany's problems and it royally pissed off the Germans but it wasn't the sole contributor. A postwar depression would still have occured as would a communist insurrection and the inherent instability of the Weimar republic. I could see a dictatorship (military junta perhaps?) arise and cause a conflict around when it did IOTL although it might me more limited. Maybe Polish-German war and then Soviet-German war?

So, yes; a second round will happen although it might not be a WW if there's no Versailles and Nazism might or might not happen.
 
I'd say that WW2 is still very possible with a milder Versailles, since as observed the effect of the depression on the fragile Weimar state was what allowed the Nazis to gain power. I wouldn't say it was "almost certain", however, since WW2 or indeed Nazi-ism could have been averted lots of ways even in our world. I would also say that the exact nature of the new treaty will determine a lot about the war, whether and how it will happen.
 
I think it's unlikely - though far from impossible - with a milder Versailles. I think it depends on the details of the treaty. In any case, I'd wager that if Germany's more stable during the Weimar years, the support for the Nazis will be much smaller.
 
It's difficult to say. While the Versailles harsh conditions were one of the reasons for the Weimar's instability, they weren't the only ones.

Political instability and the lack of a strong democratic tradition are the reasons for the rise of nazism. Italy was on the winning side of ww1 and was the first nation to fall to fascism because of these reasons. The british union of fascism never amouted to anything.

Of course each of these examples should be explained in more accurate terms, but as generalization should suffice.
 

General Zod

Banned
While absolutes are difficult to lay down, it is certainly true that while the Great Depression gave the rise of the Nazi Party its main momentum, it is also true that the harshness of the Versailles treaty created a long-term mass feeling of radical nationalist resentment against the Entente Powers and disloyalty the Weimar republic that greately helped the Nazi party in its rise to power. Remove it, and it is quite possible, and indeed likely, that neither Nazism nor Communism gain enough following to threaten the constitutional order in the 1930s.

This is even more surely true if a milder Versailles Treaty does not include just less punitive territorial clausles (albeit they are a necessary component) but also less huge reparations and/or more feasible payment terms. This may easily butterfly hyperinflation away or greately diminish its severity. Without hyperinflation, which also greately compromised the (already lukewarm) loyalty of the right-wing middle-class to the Weimar Republic, it is almost sure that neither Nazists nor Communists can pose a serious threat to the Republic.

Without these two components (harsh Versailles and hyperinflation), the combined effect of the other factors (political instability, weak democratic political parties, 1929 depression) could either cause Weimar Germany to take a France-like trajectory, where the democratic order teeters on the brink but survives (interwar France did have pretty much the same political problems as Weimar Germany) or an Italy-like trajectory, where you may have a change to a vanilla conservative-authoritarian neo-Wilhelmine or conservative-nationalist quasi-fascist regime.

However, even in this latter, less favorable outcome, such a regime would not be nowhere as radically racist-genocidal or brutally-expansionist as Nazism. Rather, it would focus on suppressing radical left-wing movements and on opportunistic, raltively moderate irredentism-expansionism. In other words, since a milder Versialles treaty more or less assumes that Germany sees most of its most legitimate irrendentist grievances (Austria, Sudetenland, Danzig, a minimal Polish Corridor) satisfied in the peace settlement, such a egime could *at the very most* pick a limited war with Poland in order to achieve its maximum, more questionable, irredentist program (ie the 1914 borders). In all likelihood this does not escalate to a general European war.

Therefore, such a PoD most likely butterflies Nazism away and as such WWII as we know it. OTOH, it is very wrong to assume that lack of Nazism would completely butterfly *a* WWII away. Even if the PoD makes Weimar Germany survive, or turns it into a relatively sane right-wing regime, you still have to take into account the actions of militarist Japan and Soviet Russia. Only if the PoD ALSO somehow butterflies away the rise of the militarist Japanese regime (quite possible) AND removes a Stalinist or Trotzkist Soviet Union from the map, AND prevent a Nazi-like Russian regime to take over, THEN WWII may be avoided. Otherwise, the typical outcome of a PoD makes Germany stay sane, is to put Stalin in Hitler's shoes.
 
Rule of 9

If you rate the outcome of WWI on a 1 to 9 pt scale where 5 is roughly an antebellum draw for Germany and anything greater is a German win. The Versailles Treaty of OTL is a 3.

My opinion is that for the WWII we know and love to argue about will not happen if the result is anything different from a 3. With a 2 result you may well get Hitler and the Nazis but Germany will not be strong enough to wage war in 1939. With a 4 or better result you don't get Hitler.
 
Almost certainly. The immediate political and economic chaos post-WWI is unavoidable for Germany and without substantial territorial gains the grudge is going to be there.

I dunno. If we posit no Ruhr occupation, less persecution of thousands of Germans in Poland (simply because Poland doesn't have thousands of Germans to perscute)....
 

Terlot

Banned
Certainly WW2 would happen. Germany wasn't beaten and would like to restart its attempt to dominate Europe. For many in German political life the only "mild" Versailles that would be acceptable would be de facto acknowledgment of German victory and supremacy over Central Europe.
Nationalism, racism and belief in German supremacy over all others was very widespread back then in Germany. The German minorities abroad would enflame the situation like they did in OTL and after a certain amount of time war with Russia would come. Such war would be unacceptable to other powers and WW2 would happen.
If we posit no Ruhr occupation, less persecution of thousands of Germans in Poland (simply because Poland doesn't have thousands of Germans to perscute)....
The war never happened due to loss of privilaged status of Germans in Poland, Hitler was quite willing to keep blind eye to Polish degermanisation efforts when it suited him. Many among German minority in Poland would only consider themself not persecuted only when they would again rule over them. And as Germans were widespread over all Polish territories then the only thing would be to occupy whole Poland for Germany.

However, even in this latter, less favorable outcome, such a regime would not be nowhere as radically racist-genocidal or brutally-expansionist as Nazism.
While maybe not as as the Nazis, it would still though be racist, brutal and genocidal. Hitler based after all his ideas on plans made by Luddendorf and others in German Empire. Plans for ethnic cleansing of milions were already developed during WW1.
satisfied in the peace settlement, such a egime could *at the very most* pick a limited war with Poland in order to achieve its maximum, more questionable, irredentist program (ie the 1914 borders). In all likelihood this does not escalate to a general European war.
Neither France nor any form of Russia would accept such result, while Russia might for short time, it would seek to reverse such situation as it undermines its strategic position.

We usually asume that the OTL Versailles treaty was a major cause for Nazism and WWII, but the Nazi party actually had a very marginal and dwindling support in the mid and late 20s - until the depression in 1929 - whereafter popular German support for the Nazi party accelerated.
You assume only Nazis wanted the war and the other parties did not.
 
Last edited:
Certainly WW2 would happen. Germany wasn't beaten and would like to restart its attempt to dominate Europe. For many in German political life the only "mild" Versailles that would be acceptable would be de facto acknowledgment of German victory and supremacy over Central Europe.
Nationalism, racism and belief in German supremacy over all others was very widespread back then in Germany.

Indeed, those voters for the Weimar Coalition throughout the 20s were all hankering for revenge, and the Social Democrats longed to paint Europe gray.
 

Terlot

Banned
Indeed, those voters for the Weimar Coalition throughout the 20s were all hankering for revenge
A weak argument considering their short stay in power. Btw didn't they made von Seeckt Chief of German Army ? The same person who wrote :
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Collapse_of_the_Third_Republic
By 1922, General Hans von Seeckt, commander of the German armed forces, was secretly advising his government: "Poland's existence is intolerable, incompatible with the essential conditions of Germany's life. Poland must go and will go". He added that Poland's obliteration "must be one of the fundamental objectives of German policy...With the disappearance of Poland will fall one of the strongest pillars of the Versailles Peace, the hegemony of France."
?

Seems like hankering for revenge for me. It seems he gained office under their rule. Correct me if I am wrong of course.

Also considering that SPD members were part of consulations regarding most imperialistic designs of German Empire during WW1, while CCP notoriously was based more on ethnic lines then catholicism when it came to rights of certain opressed minorities, this isn't a ray of hope.
 
A weak argument considering their short stay in power.

A short stay?

The last SPD Prime Minister of the German Republic, Herman Muller, was in power until March of 1930.

By 1922, General Hans von Seeckt, commander of the German armed forces, was secretly advising his government: "Poland's existence is intolerable, incompatible with the essential conditions of Germany's life. Poland must go and will go". He added that Poland's obliteration "must be one of the fundamental objectives of German policy...With the disappearance of Poland will fall one of the strongest pillars of the Versailles Peace, the hegemony of France."

I'm well aware of Seeckt. I am curious why you find Seeckt more representative of the German Reich than, say, Gustav Stresemann, who wrote,

It was a turning point in European history when the Germans initiated the policy which led by way of Locarno to Geneva. Just read what Mr. Briand said about the significance of this German decision. Along this road, Germany has experienced numerous and profound disappointments. This is not the place to discuss them in detail. I do not think of Locarno only in terms of its consequences for Germany. Locarno means much more to me.

It is the achievement of lasting peace on the Rhine, guaranteed by the formal renunciation of force by the two great neighboring nations and also by the commitment of other states to come to the aid of the victim of an act of aggression in violation of this treaty. Treuga Dei, the peace of God, shall reign where for centuries bloody wars have raged.

It can and it ought to be the basis for a general cooperative effort among these nations to spread peace wherever their material power and moral influence reach. The overwhelming majority of the German people support these aims. The youth of Germany can be won over to the same cause. Youth sees its ideal of individual physical and spiritual achievement in the peaceful competition of the Olympic Games and, I hope, in technical and intellectual development as well.



Doubtless the views of the military are far more representative of the Weimar Body Politic than its foreign minister and prime minister.

Correct me if I am wrong of course.

Sure. The short answer is that there weren't really many other people around to put in charge of the military, that the government was fairly worried about Seeckt and his sort, that most Germans wanted the border changed in the east, and that your view is overly simplistic.

Having just done a not insignificant amount of reading on this topic for the 1920s, I can dust out some articles, books, and so forth on the topic if you'd like, but the short answer is that historians have searched far and wide to find evidence of Weimar Germany's bid for European conquest and come up short.

Also considering that SPD members were part of consulations regarding most imperialistic designs of German Empire during WW1,

And the Labor Party was busy collaborating in the annihilation of the Ottoman Empire while as late as the 1940s was trying to figure out how to maintain British rule in India. So?

while CCP notoriously was based more on ethnic lines then catholicism when it came to rights of certain opressed minorities, this isn't a ray of hope.

Actually, the Weimar State ended up with some of the most advanced minority rights in the interwar period, which were, of course, dismantled by the Nazi state.
 
IOW it appears like it was more the depression than Versailles that created Nazism - comments?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

I think the Depression played a role; it promoted extremism everywhere, and it's noteworthy that in the 1928 elections the DNVP got smashed into a pulp.

But fundamentally, Weimar suffered from nigh systemic failure. Consider:

1) Inflation, the Ruhr Occupation, rising protectionism, and the Depression meant that there was a complete failure to provide for German economy. Things were finally looking up by 1928, and then, the Depression.

2) The chronic German humiliation on the world stage. Shabby treatment of interwar Germans abroad, the "bleeding corridor", the Ruhr occupation, the fact that the League did very little to help German minorities, etc. etc.

In a sense, to me it's surprising that the Weimar Republic lasted so long.
 

Terlot

Banned
The last SPD Prime Minister of the German Republic, Herman Muller, was in power until March of 1930.
So SPD oversaw the military cooperation with Soviet Union aimed at restoring German potential to wage war and discrimination of Polish minority in Weimar Republic ?

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_7063/is_n2_v30/ai_n28681351/pg_7?tag=content;col1
The German government utilized a variety of devices to hamper the growth of Polish economic power. These included regulations preventing Poles from trading in coal, grain, and fodder, or subdividing farmland obtained through inheritance. Local officials tried to prevent graduates from Polish schools from entering skilled trade apprentice programs, denied Polish professionals the licenses required to work in their fields, organized boycotts of Polish establishments, and pressured Poles to cancel their memberships in Polish cooperatives.

I am curious why you find Seeckt more representative of the German Reich than, say, Gustav Stresemann,
The same Gustav Stresemann who waged economic war on Poland hoping to re-occupy territories with Polish majority ?
that the government was fairly worried about Seeckt and his sort,
The argument "Good Tsar and the evil minister" is quite weak and outdated.


that most Germans wanted the border changed in the east
It isn't hankering for revenge because it's east ? That's a biased view. The people in east are just as the people in the west. Desiring revenge and conquests in the east is just as bad as in the west.

As even SPD was tainted by collaboration with German imperialist ideology it shows the extent of problems facing any scenario assuming Germany will be peacefull.

The chronic German humiliation on the world stage.
There was no reason for humiliation. Germany remained an european power. It felt humilitated true-but because it was denied its dreams of supremacy.

Shabby treatment of interwar Germans abroad
Was there any reason for Germans being treated well after what they did in the past besides fear of German war ? What did the Germans expect after history of discrimination and attempts to enserf most of Central Europe ?

]
he "bleeding corridor"
Gladly forgotten is the fact that it was only gained by Prussia in Partitions of Poland and contained Polish majority( I am pointing out the position in interwar Germany)-now what rational argument could be understood by international community in favour to subject Poles to German discrimination again after Germany lost the war ? To connect it to another German conquest in East Prussia-where there was no trace of conquered population left ?
If Weimar Republic believed it should posses areas with non-German majority that were gained in the past by military conquest that doesn't speak too well of its view of peacefull co-existance.


the fact that the League did very little to help German minorities
I am sorry but the League quite often supported German minorities-but what should it do to make them happy ? Reinstate financial aid for settlers in Polish areas which was now missing ?
 
Last edited:
So SPD oversaw the military cooperation with Soviet Union aimed at restoring German potential to wage war and discrimination of Polish minority in Weimar Republic ?

Again, while I admit there was some discrmination, I reiterate that Germany was by the most progressive state in Interwar Europe on minority policies.

I have been persuaded by you to dig up, the articles, if anyone is curious.

Stresemann's Minority Policies, 1924-29
Author(s): Carole Fink
Source: Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 14, No. 3, (Jul., 1979)

Hitler's Empire: How the Nazis Ruled Europe, by Mark Mazower, touches on the topic and seems to be up your ally.

Defender of Minorities: Germany in the League of Nations, 1926-1933
Carole Fink
Central European History, Vol. 5, No. 4 (Dec., 1972), pp. 330-357

The Constitutional Protection of Minorities in Germany: Weimar Revisited
Author(s): Karen Schönwälder
Source: The Slavonic and East European Review, Vol. 74, No. 1 (Jan., 1996), pp. 38-65

And, of course, the book Gustav Stresemann: Weimar's Greatest Statesman, by Jonathan Wright.

I leave it for the reader to browse the articles, and the comparisons to other interwar European states.

The same Gustav Stresemann who waged economic war on Poland hoping to re-occupy territories with Polish majority ?

You know, reading your post, you'd have know idea that hundreds of thousands of Germans left Poland immediately after the war thanks to a not insignificant amount of Polish pressure.

Moreover, note Stresemann's choice of ambassador to Poland in 1929, Ulrich Rauscher, who was a moderate and favored trying to come to some sort of agreement with Poland.

But, yes, the evil Germans had no reason whatsoever to be bitter at Poland.

The argument "Good Tsar and the evil minister" is quite weak and outdated.

Okay, I welcome a counterargument that Seeckt represented the thinking of the SPD at the time. Works by English-speaking authors are preferred, but I can take another one.

It isn't hankering for revenge because it's east ? That's a biased view. The people in east are just as the people in the west. Desiring revenge and conquests in the east is just as bad as in the west.

No, it's a recognition that Eastern Europe was a sordid mess in this period which would end in tears, and it is absurd to expect Germany to smile as its fellow citizens were systematically oppressed.

(Although to be fair it's not like Pilsudski and co. didn't oppress plenty of Poles too. And Belarussians. And Lithuanians. And Sorbs. And Jews. Am I forgetting anyone?)

Just showing that even SPD was tainted by collaboration with German imperialist ideology.

That's nice, but you didn't really elaborate on how this meant they'd conquer Europe or were in some way worse than the Labor Party or French Socialists.
 
Top