Midway

CalBear

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Even IF Midway was an utter disaster and all three U.S. decks are lost (a VERY unlikely event) the war isn't lost, it isn't even altered in any spectacular way.

This POD always ignores a couple of critical items. They are named USS Saratoga & USS Wasp. They also ignore a secondary item named USS Ranger. They further forget the related items with RN as a prefix.

The POD also always assumes that the Japanese actually succeed in taking the Island. Even if TF 16 & TF 17 were sunk with all hands, the Japanese chances of taking the Island are, at best, 1 in 3.

If you look at what the Japanese laughably called the assault plan, you will see quickly that the assualt force was too small (it was actually OUTNUMBERED by the Marine defenders), was insufficiently prepared (no rehearsal was conducted, even with just the landing forces), was inadequetely equipped (no amtraks, no proper landing boats), was assigned too little gunfire support (two heavy cruisers for three hours), and was assaulting a heavily defended position. Midway was an American version of Tarawa, except the U.S. had provided Midway with even more defenses (and defenders) than the Japanese had on Tarawa (I posted a fairly complete list of the U.S. defensive forces and the proposed IJN assault force in another thread on this subject if anyone wants to search for it).

Even IF, and as I note, it was a BIG if, the Japanese suceed they get what? An exposed position too far away to defend without tying the Kido Butai into a permanent position within a few days steaming for the U.S. submarine force (boats could have gone out, made their attacks, using up all their torpedoes on high value navy targets, and been home at Pearl before the milk went sour) that was (barely) within range of U.S. heavy bombers, while being outside the range of Japanese bombers (and IF the Japanese managed to get G5M bombers to Hawaii, what would their chances be against a couple HUNDRED P-40 fighters (which is what the U.S. had in Oahu by July of 1942).

Midway was a death trap for the IJN, no matter what happened.
 
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Getting Japan to surrender IS winning the war. From what I can recall as many Japanese ships were sunk by mines as by subs, but even more were sunk by aircraft. Without the backing of powerful air and sea forces a sub campaign fails, contrast Germany's effort with the Brits in the Med and USN in the Pac. Without a major USN fleet to combat the IJN could use the planes and ships from it's scattered islands to deal with the unsupported subs, and force supplies through to bases with powerful convoys much like it's invasion convoys in the early days of the war.
 
From what I can recall as many Japanese ships were sunk by mines as by subs, but even more were sunk by aircraft.

Nope:
graph.jpg

Source:http://www.valoratsea.com/subwar.htm

Those red bars are what we're talking about. Subs are #1 by far in terms of merchant tonnage (nearly 5 times mines, and double carrier air), and not far behind in millitary tonnage. Even if you add carrier air to land-based air, they're still smaller by a good margin, and that's with bad torpeados. Why'd they take so long to get straightened out IOTL? Pride and beaurocratic nonsense. Designers wouldn't believe there could be anything wrong, and managed to sell the brass enough that they ignored their skippers. Unlikely to happen if subs become the main offensive arm in the pacific while the surface fleet is rebuilt around the Essex-class--when you only have one weapon left, you pay a lot more attention to it.

Without the backing of powerful air and sea forces a sub campaign fails, contrast Germany's effort with the Brits in the Med and USN in the Pac. Without a major USN fleet to combat the IJN could use the planes and ships from it's scattered islands to deal with the unsupported subs, and force supplies through to bases with powerful convoys much like it's invasion convoys in the early days of the war.

However, that would require them to really think logically--and the "Victory disease" that got them overconfident IOTL is unlikely to be any better in this one--hell, it'll probably bite harder. MOre likely they'll waste their opportunity for action (and their resources) doing other attempts at securing a Decisive Battle. Heck, they'll probably waste their time trying to kick us out of Midway proper--look at Calbear's data!

Also, as Calbear points out, there are other decks available in other theaters. If they were critically needed (such as if Midway goes terribly and the US loses all her major decks in the Pacific), they'd be transferred. Not as good, maybe, but enough to be a bulwark while the subs whittle them down and the Essex's get built.
 
You're confusing winning the war and making Japan surrender.
The allied sub fleets alone (regardless of if the US carriers sat sipping beers in San Franciso or not the entire war) had defeated Japan. No imports, nothing to make weapons with, no fuel, starving populace.
Word. And it wasn't "a couple hundred" submarines. There were less than 70 on station at any one time. You know what the biggest handicap was, tho? It wasn't the failures of the Mk6. It was the nitwit in San Francisco Customs who seized the maru code prewar (which ONI was reading) & led the Japanese to change it. Butterfly that, you can bring Japan's economy to a halt in Feb-Mar '44, changing nothing else.
 
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