Even IF Midway was an utter disaster and all three U.S. decks are lost (a VERY unlikely event) the war isn't lost, it isn't even altered in any spectacular way.
This POD always ignores a couple of critical items. They are named USS Saratoga & USS Wasp. They also ignore a secondary item named USS Ranger. They further forget the related items with RN as a prefix.
The POD also always assumes that the Japanese actually succeed in taking the Island. Even if TF 16 & TF 17 were sunk with all hands, the Japanese chances of taking the Island are, at best, 1 in 3.
If you look at what the Japanese laughably called the assault plan, you will see quickly that the assualt force was too small (it was actually OUTNUMBERED by the Marine defenders), was insufficiently prepared (no rehearsal was conducted, even with just the landing forces), was inadequetely equipped (no amtraks, no proper landing boats), was assigned too little gunfire support (two heavy cruisers for three hours), and was assaulting a heavily defended position. Midway was an American version of Tarawa, except the U.S. had provided Midway with even more defenses (and defenders) than the Japanese had on Tarawa (I posted a fairly complete list of the U.S. defensive forces and the proposed IJN assault force in another thread on this subject if anyone wants to search for it).
Even IF, and as I note, it was a BIG if, the Japanese suceed they get what? An exposed position too far away to defend without tying the Kido Butai into a permanent position within a few days steaming for the U.S. submarine force (boats could have gone out, made their attacks, using up all their torpedoes on high value navy targets, and been home at Pearl before the milk went sour) that was (barely) within range of U.S. heavy bombers, while being outside the range of Japanese bombers (and IF the Japanese managed to get G5M bombers to Hawaii, what would their chances be against a couple HUNDRED P-40 fighters (which is what the U.S. had in Oahu by July of 1942).
Midway was a death trap for the IJN, no matter what happened.
This POD always ignores a couple of critical items. They are named USS Saratoga & USS Wasp. They also ignore a secondary item named USS Ranger. They further forget the related items with RN as a prefix.
The POD also always assumes that the Japanese actually succeed in taking the Island. Even if TF 16 & TF 17 were sunk with all hands, the Japanese chances of taking the Island are, at best, 1 in 3.
If you look at what the Japanese laughably called the assault plan, you will see quickly that the assualt force was too small (it was actually OUTNUMBERED by the Marine defenders), was insufficiently prepared (no rehearsal was conducted, even with just the landing forces), was inadequetely equipped (no amtraks, no proper landing boats), was assigned too little gunfire support (two heavy cruisers for three hours), and was assaulting a heavily defended position. Midway was an American version of Tarawa, except the U.S. had provided Midway with even more defenses (and defenders) than the Japanese had on Tarawa (I posted a fairly complete list of the U.S. defensive forces and the proposed IJN assault force in another thread on this subject if anyone wants to search for it).
Even IF, and as I note, it was a BIG if, the Japanese suceed they get what? An exposed position too far away to defend without tying the Kido Butai into a permanent position within a few days steaming for the U.S. submarine force (boats could have gone out, made their attacks, using up all their torpedoes on high value navy targets, and been home at Pearl before the milk went sour) that was (barely) within range of U.S. heavy bombers, while being outside the range of Japanese bombers (and IF the Japanese managed to get G5M bombers to Hawaii, what would their chances be against a couple HUNDRED P-40 fighters (which is what the U.S. had in Oahu by July of 1942).
Midway was a death trap for the IJN, no matter what happened.
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