Yamamoto would have easily won at Midway had he kept the awesome fleet together, instead of sending 4 carriers, 2 battleships and some support ships ahead of the main fleet (2 light carriers, 5 battleships, dozens of cruisers and destoyers and support ships). The additional planes of the battleships, cruisers and light carriers would have found the American fleet before the latter found the Japanese fleet and even if the Americans attacked the Japanese, they would have found so many targets, planes and AA that they would have been quite useless, especially since their torpedoes were faulty.
However, even wiping out the whole Pacific fleet, if Hawaii is not invaded, the large numbers of new American carriers with superior planes would have eventually defeated the Japanese.
No he wouldn't.
No they wouldn't.
The Japanese had more than enough float planes available at Midway, although many were the "Type 95" E8N2 which was the standard model carried by most IJN ships, plus at least one, probably two "experimental" recon aircraft (actually the pre-production model of the D4Y1 aboard the
Soryu). The Japanese sent out seven aircraft as search aircraft, this was the standard number for the amount of the compass being searched per IJN doctrine. The weakness of the
Kido Butai search had nothing to do with resources and everything to do with doctrine. The addition of more aircraft would not have changed the doctrine.
As far as AAA, the Japanese, unlike the RN and USN actually relied almost exclusively on the carriers to provide their own AAA. Most IJN ships, including the massive
Yamato class carried remarkably light AAA, most of it being 25mm (
Yamato carried 12 127mm AAA and 24 25mm AAA in 1942, this was greatly increased later in the war, but it was far weaker than that carried by American BB and barely stronger than USN heavy cruisers which carried 8 5/25 or 5/38 DP guns along with 8-12 40mm and a similar number of 20mm guns). It was believed that the carriers were more than capable of taking care of any enemy that might get past the CAP.
There a LOT of reasons that the Japanese lost all four decks at Midway.
Invade Hawaii, in mid-1942? Preposterous.
Against 100,000 U.S. troops (not partly trained colonial locals, mind you, U.S. combat formations), well over 200 fighters (including P-38s), and over 100 bombers of the USAAF along with
Saratoga's air wing and two full squadrons of Wildcats on the Island as a replacement pool, all of whom were anything but asleep.
The Japanese High Command though that the Island couldn't be taken with less than 60,000 troops. Based on U.S. experience later in the war, that number should be at least 150,000. The Japanese couldn't manage to pry loose a full division at any one time to push the U.S. off of Guadalcanal much less move a Corps to the middle of the Pacific.