Midway Lost

[Andrew Hudson]

The Japanese wouldn't have reached the mainland with the possible exeception of the tip of the Alaskan mainland. The result would have been a longer war but ultimately defeat for Japan within a year the United States would be outbuilding Japan in aircraft carriers and aircraft whilst submarines would be cutting off Japans oil supplies.

A defeat at Midway? The best way for this to happen would have been for Halsey not to have gone sick. His impulsiveness might have resulted in a different sequence of events. Similarly at a later stage had there been another Phillipne Sea he might have lost that one

 

[Snake Featherston]

@ Snake saying WWII wasn't America waging a total war. It's by far the biggest mobilization we've ever seen in scale and involvement. If it took doing so, we were ready as we ever would be to do so. Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were seen as evil incarnate and worth spending every dollar and drop of blood to assure their unconditional surrender. However, by 1944, we realized we didn't need to keep going 150% and started gearing down. We looked the war debt and got scared by the tab we'd owe ourselves for decades. That's why the manpower caps were put in place. Plus, after a certain point, what were we to do with 15-20 million men under arms?
Germany and Japan were going down, it was matter of when and how high the butcher's bill would be. Not enough to mobilize the extra five-ten million.

And we put a manpower cap on how many soldiers and sailors we could recruit which meant a lot of that manpower went to retaining strength in existing units which could not be relieved. We did that as early as 1942 and that the generals won despite that indicates the analysis of them as overly clumsy and unimaginative could use some revision. It does not, however, mean that the war machine went flat-out in the sense of the Soviet war effort, nobody else in human history managed to do that.

 

[Geon]

Could the Japanese even have taken Midway Island though? They did plan to invade the island following their planned naval victory...but would it have worked out?

If one compares the troops the Japanese brought along to take the island, keeping in mind the poor state of their amphibious warfare doctrine, and compares it to the American defenses, the argument has been made that the Japanese wouldn't have been able to pull it off. Midway would have stood firm against the Japanese attacks, probably would've had the crap bombed out of it before the fleet was forced to retire.

In such a scenario...might the Japanese be tempted to try again to take Midway, this time allocating proper resources?

Fearless Leader

Regarding actually taking Midway itself. That would not have been a good idea for the Japanese for one reason--logistics. The U.S. could have easily resupplied Midway from Hawaii, the Japanese supply lines would have been overstretched. Midway served as an outpost and was not meant for use as an operations base. There's no question the Japanese could have taken Midway had they won the naval battle, holding it would be another matter entirely.

Geon

 

[burmafrd]

And we put a manpower cap on how many soldiers and sailors we could recruit which meant a lot of that manpower went to retaining strength in existing units which could not be relieved. We did that as early as 1942 and that the generals won despite that indicates the analysis of them as overly clumsy and unimaginative could use some revision. It does not, however, mean that the war machine went flat-out in the sense of the Soviet war effort, nobody else in human history managed to do that.

we did not because we did not have to. So what? IT was the most all out mobilization we ever had by a fair amount. So why compare it to Russia which was invaded and torn up? There is no logic there at all.

 

[Snake Featherston]

we did not because we did not have to. So what? IT was the most all out mobilization we ever had by a fair amount. So why compare it to Russia which was invaded and torn up? There is no logic there at all.

Because it's a contemporary example of a real all-out war and that the USA never had to take that hand out from behind its back does not mean any less that the hand was in fact there. The WWII generation went ballistic over Tarawa and invented the inflated body count. Tarawa by US Civil War standards would have been a large skirmish in terms of casualties.

 

[CalBear]

I'm curious if a Japanese victory in Midway has butterflies in the Chinese theater -- for example, could the PoD result in better morale during the Sichuan Invasion, thus leading to the fall of Chiang's forces?

Very unlikely. That would require the U.S. to actually capitulate and resume supply of oil and metals to Japan, along with unfreezing Japan's hard assets. That sort of action would leave China more or less on its own, and in that circumstance anything might happen.

 

[Archytas]

Yamamoto would have easily won at Midway had he kept the awesome fleet together, instead of sending 4 carriers, 2 battleships and some support ships ahead of the main fleet (2 light carriers, 5 battleships, dozens of cruisers and destoyers and support ships). The additional planes of the battleships, cruisers and light carriers would have found the American fleet before the latter found the Japanese fleet and even if the Americans attacked the Japanese, they would have found so many targets, planes and AA that they would have been quite useless, especially since their torpedoes were faulty.

However, even wiping out the whole Pacific fleet, if Hawaii is not invaded, the large numbers of new American carriers with superior planes would have eventually defeated the Japanese.

 

[KorgusCyborgus]

Even if they'd won the naval battle, they'd have been slaughtered on land. They'd have had to wade across the coral reef while under heavy machinegun fire, and that's before they even got to the island.

 

[WSoxfan]

Yamamoto would have easily won at Midway had he kept the awesome fleet together, instead of sending 4 carriers, 2 battleships and some support ships ahead of the main fleet (2 light carriers, 5 battleships, dozens of cruisers and destoyers and support ships). The additional planes of the battleships, cruisers and light carriers would have found the American fleet before the latter found the Japanese fleet and even if the Americans attacked the Japanese, they would have found so many targets, planes and AA that they would have been quite useless, especially since their torpedoes were faulty.

However, even wiping out the whole Pacific fleet, if Hawaii is not invaded, the large numbers of new American carriers with superior planes would have eventually defeated the Japanese.

I'm doing homework right now so I can just respond to one pont. The Americans will go straight for the Carriers, and the fact that the torps were faulty didn't mean all to much IOTL did it?
Also, please don't necro threads dead for five months when theres a thread about the same subject less than a month old.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Yamamoto would have easily won at Midway had he kept the awesome fleet together, instead of sending 4 carriers, 2 battleships and some support ships ahead of the main fleet (2 light carriers, 5 battleships, dozens of cruisers and destoyers and support ships). The additional planes of the battleships, cruisers and light carriers would have found the American fleet before the latter found the Japanese fleet and even if the Americans attacked the Japanese, they would have found so many targets, planes and AA that they would have been quite useless, especially since their torpedoes were faulty.

However, even wiping out the whole Pacific fleet, if Hawaii is not invaded, the large numbers of new American carriers with superior planes would have eventually defeated the Japanese.

Then they get a Perryville/Coral Sea: they win at Sea but their strategic design, which involves an amphibious landing, is doomed regardless so the USA can still salvage a great propaganda boon out of a clusterfuck.

 

[CalBear]

Yamamoto would have easily won at Midway had he kept the awesome fleet together, instead of sending 4 carriers, 2 battleships and some support ships ahead of the main fleet (2 light carriers, 5 battleships, dozens of cruisers and destoyers and support ships). The additional planes of the battleships, cruisers and light carriers would have found the American fleet before the latter found the Japanese fleet and even if the Americans attacked the Japanese, they would have found so many targets, planes and AA that they would have been quite useless, especially since their torpedoes were faulty.

However, even wiping out the whole Pacific fleet, if Hawaii is not invaded, the large numbers of new American carriers with superior planes would have eventually defeated the Japanese.

No he wouldn't.

No they wouldn't.

The Japanese had more than enough float planes available at Midway, although many were the "Type 95" E8N2 which was the standard model carried by most IJN ships, plus at least one, probably two "experimental" recon aircraft (actually the pre-production model of the D4Y1 aboard the Soryu). The Japanese sent out seven aircraft as search aircraft, this was the standard number for the amount of the compass being searched per IJN doctrine. The weakness of the Kido Butai search had nothing to do with resources and everything to do with doctrine. The addition of more aircraft would not have changed the doctrine.

As far as AAA, the Japanese, unlike the RN and USN actually relied almost exclusively on the carriers to provide their own AAA. Most IJN ships, including the massive Yamato class carried remarkably light AAA, most of it being 25mm (Yamato carried 12 127mm AAA and 24 25mm AAA in 1942, this was greatly increased later in the war, but it was far weaker than that carried by American BB and barely stronger than USN heavy cruisers which carried 8 5/25 or 5/38 DP guns along with 8-12 40mm and a similar number of 20mm guns). It was believed that the carriers were more than capable of taking care of any enemy that might get past the CAP.

There a LOT of reasons that the Japanese lost all four decks at Midway.

Invade Hawaii, in mid-1942? Preposterous.

Against 100,000 U.S. troops (not partly trained colonial locals, mind you, U.S. combat formations), well over 200 fighters (including P-38s), and over 100 bombers of the USAAF along with Saratoga's air wing and two full squadrons of Wildcats on the Island as a replacement pool, all of whom were anything but asleep.

The Japanese High Command though that the Island couldn't be taken with less than 60,000 troops. Based on U.S. experience later in the war, that number should be at least 150,000. The Japanese couldn't manage to pry loose a full division at any one time to push the U.S. off of Guadalcanal much less move a Corps to the middle of the Pacific.

 

[hairysamarian]

There a LOT of reasons that the Japanese lost all four decks at Midway.

The doctrine that called for all the carriers to be concentrated into one formation always comes to mind. That, and the shortcomings in damage-control procedures of which I was made aware this year and which were apparently standard procedure for the IJN.

 

[CalBear]

The doctrine that called for all the carriers to be concentrated into one formation always comes to mind. That, and the shortcomings in damage-control procedures of which I was made aware this year and which were apparently standard procedure for the IJN.

Quite true. There is also the rather fragile nature of the Early (pre Shokaku) IJN carriers as well. The Shokaku and Zuikaku, along with the Tahio (a rather handsome design, the only example of which was lost, after a single torpedo hit, due to remarkably inept damage control at the Battle of Philippine Sea) were unique in Japanese carriers during the war in their relative robust designs. Ship after these classes were of the Unryo class, which were based on the rather unfortunate Hiryu. This is pretty much illustrated by the amount of damage the Shokakus were able to survive compared to the ships before and after them.