Midway Island Siege?

Here is a more complete description of the Japanese landing force. It appears I forgot one SNLF group. Total infantry is approx 2500 men and small arms.

I'll look for some maps of Midway. The text below refers to landing on the south side of the island. There the reef edge was relatively close to the shore. The other shores had between 1000 & 3000 meters of reef to cross.

awesome, i was going to ask for more info on that landing force. Thanks.
 
So @lionhead I guess you can see the odds favor the defenders. The attackers can only loiter around for a week for bombardment. The assault is problematic. The Yamato's guns might be able to reduce the garrison to corpses and rubble, but the Japanese won't use anything heavier than a cruiser weight gun. The concrete can stand 305 mm gunfire, so the defenders have refuge.
 
Still, up until Carl brought up the defenses and someone else mentioned the Yamato WON"T smack the island, you brought up lots of valid points
 
Oh wait, it was Carl who brought up the defender numbers too. I guess he gave us all the information we needed to analyze. Thanks Carl.
 
So @lionhead I guess you can see the odds favor the defenders. The attackers can only loiter around for a week for bombardment. The assault is problematic. The Yamato's guns might be able to reduce the garrison to corpses and rubble, but the Japanese won't use anything heavier than a cruiser weight gun. The concrete can stand 305 mm gunfire, so the defenders have refuge.

Yeah well once the fact that they won't use their battleships to shell Midway my idea of them actually able to make the Americans surrender pretty much vanished. With what they had they had no chance, especially in the ATL where they have supplies for 3 years.

On the other hand though, in the air the Americans are at a disadvantage with all the AA around. The Japanese ships are safe from attack.

Question is, will the japanese actually do it? Will they invade Midway and fail horribly? What will that change about the Japanese doctrine concerning invasion? What will their next campaign be? I mean in the sea they got the advantage for now with 3 American carriers lost.

Even if they win the actual battle of midway on the sea, they still have to retreat without taking it.

What about the Aleutian islands? Would the Japanese strengthen it? I mean they took Attu and Kiska and they could take Adak and try for Dutch Harbor again when naval reinforcements arrive to take out the American cruisers and whatever battleships they try to throw at them.
 
Yeah well once the fact that they won't use their battleships to shell Midway my idea of them actually able to make the Americans surrender pretty much vanished. With what they had they had no chance, especially in the ATL where they have supplies for 3 years.

On the other hand though, in the air the Americans are at a disadvantage with all the AA around. The Japanese ships are safe from attack.

Question is, will the Japanese actually do it? Will they invade Midway and fail horribly? What will that change about the Japanese doctrine concerning invasion? What will their next campaign be? I mean in the sea they got the advantage for now with 3 American carriers lost.

Even if they win the actual battle of midway on the sea, they still have to retreat without taking it.

What about the Aleutian islands? Would the Japanese strengthen it? I mean they took Attu and Kiska and they could take Adak and try for Dutch Harbor again when naval reinforcements arrive to take out the American cruisers and whatever battleships they try to throw at them.

I wouldn't say they have no chance, but the odds are less than 1 in 1000. If fog hides the boats but leaves the landing sight uninhibited (somehow) then it's probably a 25%, either way the odds favor the Americans. So it's safe to say that the IJN should NOT even try to make a landing. Making the marines surrender without battleship shelling is a no-no and so is starving them out. A siege can't last long if your loitering time is one week.

The Japanese would have a slight edge in air away from AA batteries after TTL Midway, but AA favors either side. Around the Japanese ships, Japanese air numerical and technological superiority (at this time in the war anyways) and fleet AA would make striking them suicide. Around the airstrip and the main supply base, the Americans can defend themselves.

Now, do they try to invade the island? I can see several possibilities since the IJN intel is faulty and the think they have a 3 to 1 advantage in numbers. I'd say maybe a 25% chance Yamamoto is satisfied with his victory and is content to let his ships shell Midway a bit before moving on to his next target.

Ironically the worse outcome comes from a better realization of the big picture. He invades Midway, but I don't think they would fail horribly. A week's worth of bombardment should take care of the PT boats. The real problem comes from the coastal defense guns and the submarines. Also the rubber boats are basically "please shoot me." What probably happens is that the invasion starts to go off horribly and they call it off, losing maybe 1/8 of them and causing insignificant and possibly no casualties (because they didn't even LAND).

Now let's suppose the coastal defense fire messes or some highly unlikely series of events happen that allow the Japanese to get close enough to land significant numbers of rubber boats on the island. If it was going to be catastrophic failure, it probably would be called off with only some stranded, so to get here something when right for the attackers. I've seen many weird things in military history and I'm not willing to completely write off the Japanese yet (I mostly write them off though). The Japanese land, and I'd say they maybe got a 25% chance of taking the island. They are outnumbered, but their cruiser and destroyer only gunfire support provides more firepower than the coastal batteries. Even if the Japanese aren't trained to provide spotting from the transports, any amphibious marine force should be able to spot once they have a beachhead. The accuracy should greatly improve with a spotter, probably triple the number of hits. One about 1/4 of the coastal batteries are out, a destroyer can stroll in nice and close at 2 km and it should be very accurate at this distance, taking out costal batteries and allowing the attacker to move in closer. Midway Island falls and the crew are prisoners of war.

Now what? Well as a mentioned, the last paragraph probably doesn't happen. In all of likelihood, the rubber boats don't get close, so the Japanese can't actually take Midway Island even after TTL Battle of Midway. Their best chance is a surprise attack, which is blown. They do get a consolation prize of cruisers and 3 American carriers sunk.

The next moves? If they didn't bother landing a force a midway, I can imagine them strengthening their hold in the Aleutrian Islands, and take Adak. Maybe they might shell Dutch harbor. If they tried to land at Midway and called off when things starting going horrible, I imagine they are down 1/8 of the landing force (everyone else runs away). Once again here they might try to take Adak, but they would be more conservative.

The problem for the Japanese is that they didn't inflict any significant casualties in TTL Midway. Sure, they got away scot free, but every airman loss and ship lost hurts them. in contrast, for the USN, flattops are replaceable,, they just take some time to replace. What hurts is to lose planes, sailors, marines and experienced fighter pilots in increasing order of seriousness. Losing a carrier hurts since the planes need to ditch. Since the pilots are safe at Midway, the overall picture doesn't change much. The Ranger, which was considered too slow for the Pacific Campaign, can be recalled from the Atlantic. The Essex will be built. In the case where Japanese suffer some losses in an abortive landing losing around 1/8 of their men without putting a boot on the island (which means the marine casualties are very light), I can even imagine the Gutucanal campaign staring just 3 months later that OTL!

Yamamoto might realize this and chose to land his marines. He knows the landing will be a difficult task. Little does he know, there are more defenders than he thinks and the job is harder than he thinks. As in probably less than 1 in a thousand it will work. But if they do take Midway, it's a huge setback for USA. The Japanese will go to the Aleutian Islands. Adek is defiantly going down. Dutch Harbor might be kept out of Japanese hands, but it's certainly going to be within bombing range. The Japanese might also take some islands in the Southwest pacific. They might start building supplies for their island garrisons, which defeats the island hopping strategy when the USN tries to fight back. If an island has 3 years of food and water and lots of ammo, you can't ignore it. I can imagine in this case development of new fighters would be scrapped in favor of replacing losses, so the Grumman F4F is going to stay the most advanced carrier fighter for another three years.
 
the Japanese can't actually take Midway Island even after TTL Battle of Midway. Their best chance is a surprise attack, which is blown. They do get a consolation prize of cruisers and 3 American carriers sunk.

I wouldn't dismiss that as a consolation prize, since Yamamoto achieved his operational objective of negating the US Navy's offensive force. If anything, keeping Midway is the American consolation prize for having 3 carriers sunk. Each one of those sunk ships had a complement greater than the Japanese landing force, so even with a botched assault US losses are likely higher. Having the aircrews mostly alive (aside from combat losses) is a massive stroke of fortune, though the planes themselves are probably destroyed...Midway didn't have the facilities to base 3 carrier airwings and they'd be shelled on the airstrip when the Japanese naval support came in.

In any case, the Japanese landings are repulsed but the US only has the Saratoga as the sole carrier remaining in the Pacific. Wasp is reassigned from the Atlantic, as per OTL...maybe Ranger goes with her, but the Navy may be leery of stripping the Atlantic too much, plus they might think she'd be a sitting duck after seeing the more modern Yorktown-class sunk at Midway. Guadalcanal Campaign might get pushed back to early 1943 in that case, after Essex is finished in December '42. Even if Ranger does come, the Navy will probably still want to wait for Essex, considering Japan still has all 6 fleet carriers, as opposed to 2 in OTL.
 
I wouldn't dismiss that as a consolation prize, since Yamamoto achieved his operational objective of negating the US Navy's offensive force. If anything, keeping Midway is the American consolation prize for having 3 carriers sunk. Each one of those sunk ships had a complement greater than the Japanese landing force, so even with a botched assault US losses are likely higher. Having the aircrews mostly alive (aside from combat losses) is a massive stroke of fortune, though the planes themselves are probably destroyed...Midway didn't have the facilities to base 3 carrier airwings and they'd be shelled on the airstrip when the Japanese naval support came in.

In any case, the Japanese landings are repulsed but the US only has the Saratoga as the sole carrier remaining in the Pacific. Wasp is reassigned from the Atlantic, as per OTL...maybe Ranger goes with her, but the Navy may be leery of stripping the Atlantic too much, plus they might think she'd be a sitting duck after seeing the more modern Yorktown-class sunk at Midway. Guadalcanal Campaign might get pushed back to early 1943 in that case, after Essex is finished in December '42. Even if Ranger does come, the Navy will probably still want to wait for Essex, considering Japan still has all 6 fleet carriers, as opposed to 2 in OTL.

See the thing is that unlike Japan, America can replace the flattops a lot easier. Losing a carrier and all its airmen? That's horrible. Losing three carriers and all the planes and airmen? That would be a huge blow to USA (and since in OTL it happened to Japan... welp if Pearl Harbour made them 75% doomed instead of 100% doomed, now they were 100% doomed). Losing three carriers but saving the airmen and the planes? That would be quite bad for Japan, but little more than an expensive headache to USA.

A problem might be that the aircraft might not be saved. In TTL, amour piecing bombs, bullets, and fuel were stocked beforehand, but the problem is where to put the damn planes since Midway wasn't supposed to field 3 carrier wings. In the Mediterranean, the Royal Navy early in the African campaign shelled a bunch of Italian planes in an unprotected airfield. The navy had no ground spotters, but the field was on the shore. For seven days they fired and the planes suffered 75% losses (there wasn't enough fuel to fly to the next base) before the British went away. Seven days is also coincidentally the same amount of time the Japanese can loiter around midway after TTL's naval victory where their battleships got close enough to fire away and wreck havoc on the smaller tonnage fleet. There are protected hangers, these would normally house spotter and scout aircraft. These can probably hosue maybe 30 Grumman F4F Wildcats. There are some hangers with no concrete reinforcement. And of course, the rest of the planes would just be placed randomly around the airstrip. This is the vastly majority of the planes since, as you mentioned, Midway isn't supposed to house 3 carrier airwings. The airmen themselves can go into the bunkers along with everyone else. These can withstand 305 mm shell bombardment, and fortunately the Japanese won't use the Yamato (or any battleships) to shell, and those might do some real damage on direct hits. The airmen are safe, most of the planes obviously are not. Going by the Italian experience, we can expect a 75% loss of the planes themselves, which I hadn't figured earlier when I made post 46.

Huh, this is a minor problem. The Wasp and Saratoga need to cover the whole ocean, while the Japanese are still roaming. Guadalcanal will probably have to wait more than 3 extra months. The Ranger probably can't be used by itself, but could support either of the others. In the meantime, landing at Attu to retake it is probably a bad idea, since the IJN can attack the transports, which will be sitting ducks with no air cover. In contrast, a Japanese capture of Adek is in the cards. That's probably as far as they can go from their home bases though. You might be right, the navy might have to wait for Essex before they can pay back the Japanese for TTL Midway. I think the Ranger might be pulled to support the Wasp. I wonder what other butterflies this has ont he pacific. Is Adek important?
 

CalBear

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Zero probability setup.

Losing a carrier to surface gunfire isn't impossible, but it should be. The one case where it occurred was so unusual as to be, well, criminal.

In the case of the U.S. force the carriers were not operating in a single formation. Yorktown (TF16)left port nearly two full days behind Enterprise and Hornet (TF 17). Even once the forces had rendezvoused the two TF operated independently. How independently? Based on all available evidence Nagumo never even realized that there was a two carrier formation in the area (at the time it was somewhat unusual for the USN to operate multiple carrier formations, although the Japanese were not aware of that, which is itself a sort of interesting story). and assumed that he had managed to pick off two of the three possible U.S. decks before Hiryu was sunk. American ships had radar, the Japanese did not, radar was new, but the earliest advocates were in the carrier community so there is no way the IJN heavies can sneak up on TF 16 & 17.
 

CalBear

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The best way to look at Midway's ground defenses is to see it as a super Tarawa. The difference is that the American defenders at Midway had something in the area of 2-1 advantage in numbers and the Japanese lacked anything approaching the capability of the LVT.

The Japanese also did a piss-poor recon of the islets. How piss poor? Glad you asked. The Marines had a platoon of light tanks on Sand and the Japanese NEVER SAW THEM. Never saw them on a patch of ground that only had a land area of 1,200 acres.
 

Lets look at the Aleutians.... for the Japanese it is a minor secondary theater. For the US is it also a secondary theater (albeit with more resources by far tossed into it). The weather is the worst anywhere were serious fighting occurred in World War II aside from possibly the far Arctic Front around Murmansk. Flight operations were typically more costly in air losses due to weather than enemy action. The Japanese had too few ground troops and amphibious craft available in June 1942 when they seized Kiska and Attu to also seize Dutch Harbor with the defenses already present. The two Japanese CVL airgroups present (about 50 aircraft) do not outnumber the USAAF aircraft present.

If the Japanese actually won Midway, to move in strength against the rest of the Aleutians would require assembling the shipping and warships and ground troops over the course of the summer of 1942 in time to make a landing at Dutch Harbor before the weather turned horrible instead of just frequently bad (precipitation, including snow, doubles in September from August, temperatures drop 10 degrees on average) and by October an amphibious campaign is out of the question due to weather.

(Note that the US invaded Kiska in August, and Attu on May 30 in OTL)

This seems like an unlikely Japanese course of action unless they planned such from the beginning instead of trying to act on a fleeting opportunity.

A more likely Japanese course of action is their planned FS Operation, aimed at New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, which would have been a tough fight for both sides due to a large concentration of Allied land based aircraft in the area by August, not to mention the rather powerful Allied garrisons present by that point. That operation was planned for July - August 1942. It was cancelled after Midway because of the loss of the 4 Japanese carriers.

Now lets look at a Japanese surface bombardment (the Bombardment of Henderson Field by 2 Japanese battleships on October 13, 1942

The Japanese fired off 973 rounds (nearly all of the their HE) for 2 hours 23 minutes at the airfield, destroying or wrecking 48 of 90 aircraft (which lacked revetments) and killed 41 men (who had just foxholes). They cratered the runway as well. That runway was operational just after dawn and the main limitation of the remaining aircraft was fuel shortages (fuel was unprotected).

So in ideal conditions from the Japanese standpoint they still could not knock out American aircraft capability, only weaken it. Midway is within ferry range (barely but definitely so) for the American Dauntless aircraft from the carriers and of course American aircraft can stage up from Oahu. Reinforcement is thus possible. For that matter the airgroup from the Saratoga, which arrived just after the battle historically (the carrier and its airgroup) can fly off the ship, attack the Japanese, recover at Midway, refuel, and return back to their carrier unless the Japanese manage to completely neutralize the field (unlikely for reasons already indicated).

Due to fuel constraints the Japanese would have to leave the area within a couple of days, with June 8 being the longest they can remain, and that most definitely includes the carriers.

A Japanese siege is therefore unlikely in the extreme, and as indicted by Calbear above a Japanese assault is almost certain to fail (and very messily so too).
 
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Zero probability setup.

Losing a carrier to surface gunfire isn't impossible, but it should be. The one case where it occurred was so unusual as to be, well, criminal.

In the case of the U.S. force the carriers were not operating in a single formation. Yorktown (TF16)left port nearly two full days behind Enterprise and Hornet (TF 17). Even once the forces had rendezvoused the two TF operated independently. How independently? Based on all available evidence Nagumo never even realized that there was a two carrier formation in the area (at the time it was somewhat unusual for the USN to operate multiple carrier formations, although the Japanese were not aware of that, which is itself a sort of interesting story). and assumed that he had managed to pick off two of the three possible U.S. decks before Hiryu was sunk. American ships had radar, the Japanese did not, radar was new, but the earliest advocates were in the carrier community so there is no way the IJN heavies can sneak up on TF 16 & 17.

Indeed. But could you indulge the idea for a moment that the US fleet is destroyed and the Japanese actually win the battle of midway with 3 US carriers lost and none on the Japanese side, as that was the ATL. What is the next move? Will the Japanese expend force to take Midway, fail and then be pretty much back where they were originally? Or will their next operation involve an even bigger decisive battle attempt to take out the US fleet? Next confrontation will probably be late 1943, against US Essex class carriers(4 of 'em at least). By that time Shokaku will be repaired and the Taiho finished. Maybe also Unryu and Amagi? Of course these 3 are completely inferior to the Essex class(maybe even the Yorktown class), but still. Its interesting.

Lets look at the Aleutians.... for the Japanese it is a minor secondary theater. For the US is it also a secondary theater (albeit with more resources by far tossed into it). The weather is the worst anywhere were serious fighting occurred in World War II aside from possibly the far Arctic Front around Murmansk. Flight operations were typically more costly in air losses due to weather than enemy action. The Japanese had too few ground troops and amphibious craft available in June 1942 when they seized Kiska and Attu to also seize Dutch Harbor with the defenses already present. The two Japanese CVL airgroups present (about 50 aircraft) do not outnumber the USAAF aircraft present.

If the Japanese actually won Midway, to move in strength against the rest of the Aleutians would require assembling the shipping and warships and ground troops over the course of the summer of 1942 in time to make a landing at Dutch Harbor before the weather turned horrible instead of just frequently bad (precipitation, including snow, doubles in September from August, temperatures drop 10 degrees on average) and by October an amphibious campaign is out of the question due to weather.

(Note that the US invaded Kiska in August, and Attu on May 30 in OTL)

This seems like an unlikely Japanese course of action unless they planned such from the beginning instead of trying to act on a fleeting opportunity.

A more likely Japanese course of action is their planned FS Operation, aimed at New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, which would have been a tough fight for both sides due to a large concentration of Allied land based aircraft in the area by August, not to mention the rather powerful Allied garrisons present by that point. That operation was planned for July - August 1942. It was cancelled after Midway because of the loss of the 4 Japanese carriers.

See, i knew all that, but my Hearts of Iron heart took over and started fantasizing about Alaska. I warned somebody on a different thread not to do that and now i'm doing it myself.
 
Indeed. But could you indulge the idea for a moment that the US fleet is destroyed and the Japanese actually win the battle of midway with 3 US carriers lost and none on the Japanese side, as that was the ATL. What is the next move? Will the Japanese expend force to take Midway, fail and then be pretty much back where they were originally? Or will their next operation involve an even bigger decisive battle attempt to take out the US fleet? Next confrontation will probably be late 1943, against US Essex class carriers(4 of 'em at least). By that time Shokaku will be repaired and the Taiho finished. Maybe also Unryu and Amagi? Of course these 3 are completely inferior to the Essex class(maybe even the Yorktown class), but still. Its interesting.

the US Fleet carrier line up late 43 is this
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington II (91), Intrepid (91)
in early 44 its this
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington (91), Wasp II (91), Intrepid (91), Hornet II (91), Franklin (91)
late 44
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington (91), Wasp (91), Intrepid (91), Hornet (91), Franklin (91), Ticonderoga (91), Hancock (91), Bennington (91), Shangri-La (91)
from here http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
Yeah, Japan is gonna get its ass kicked come 43-44 assuming the pilot grinder in the South Pacific still occurs followed by advances in US radar and US aircraft it's gonna be either philippine sea on a bigger scale or a OTL midway off course Nimitz might get sacked after the defeat though
 
Nimitz might get sacked after the defeat though

This is a good point. At the very least the defeat at sea will cause considerable distress among the Powers That Be in Washington and Pearl Harbor. This was the US Navy's best shot of the war to date, they were reading the cracked Japanese radio intercepts and knew exactly where the Japanese would be and when, they had achieved strategic surprise...then they still lost and 3 carriers are now at the bottom of the Pacific. I wouldn't be surprised if this casts doubt on the cryptananalysis effort as a whole - a lot of people might be wondering if the Japanese knew their code was cracked all along and if they'd been intentionally feeding false intel knowing the Americans would pick it up. The fact that the Japanese landings are repulsed makes it even worse if that's at all possible - if there was no way the Japanese could successfully invade Midway anyways, those carriers might as well have stayed safely in Pearl. Instead, it now looks like Nimitz made an ill-informed gamble and sent out 3 carriers to die in an utterly pointless and avoidable battle. The command structure in the Pacific likely gets shaken up; Spruance and Fletcher may get raked over the coals as well (if they even survived the battle, that is).
 
the US Fleet carrier line up late 43 is this
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington II (91), Intrepid (91)
in early 44 its this
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington (91), Wasp II (91), Intrepid (91), Hornet II (91), Franklin (91)
late 44
Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington (91), Wasp (91), Intrepid (91), Hornet (91), Franklin (91), Ticonderoga (91), Hancock (91), Bennington (91), Shangri-La (91)
from here http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
Yeah, Japan is gonna get its ass kicked come 43-44 assuming the pilot grinder in the South Pacific still occurs followed by advances in US radar and US aircraft it's gonna be either philippine sea on a bigger scale or a OTL midway off course Nimitz might get sacked after the defeat though

Well of course they are getting their ass kicked. But what about the battles? US will still fight against experienced pilots, many more now. Its not going to be like the philippine sea.

You think Nimitz will be sacked? Isn't his fault if the naval codes aren't cracked.
 
Well of course they are getting their ass kicked. But what about the battles? US will still fight against experienced pilots, many more now. Its not going to be like the philippine sea.

You think Nimitz will be sacked? Isn't his fault if the naval codes aren't cracked.

Unless the meat grinder in Rabaul and Sopac doesn't happen the pilots of the IJAF and IJN will be ground down there might be more left than OTL but I'm not gonna be betting on them when flying inferior aircraft against well trained American pilots flying Hellcats and Corsairs there will be more losses off course but the battles will still be one sided due to simple attrition. As for Nimitz if the codes aren't cracked the carriers won't be there and if they are and the USN gets beaten well he's gonna take the fall him or either Flecther or Spruance I wonder who is gonna replace Nimitz if he's sacked though Halsey?
 
...

You think Nimitz will be sacked? Isn't his fault if the naval codes aren't cracked.

No, it would fall on assorted mid level officers. Given the politics the senior man on Oahu (Lt Cmdr Layton) would be the first target. A thurogh examination might nail one or more back in Washington. Depends on the circumstances.

Indeed. But could you indulge the idea for a moment that the US fleet is destroyed and the Japanese actually win the battle of midway with 3 US carriers lost and none on the Japanese side, as that was the ATL. What is the next move? Will the Japanese expend force to take Midway, fail and then be pretty much back where they were originally? Or will their next operation involve an even bigger decisive battle attempt to take out the US fleet?

Japanese expectations was the US would ask for a cease fire and wait for terms to be dictated, then negotiations which the Japanese would dominate. The had actually expected this months earlier & were a bit confused about the repeatedly defeated US continuing to fight.

Another pass at Midway hits a even better prepared island. Does not matter if they take it or not, losses will be substantial.

Operation FS (Fiji Samoa) is oft raised as a 'next' operation for Japan. If they continue with offensives they are over extending themselves and raising expendenture of men and material beyond what they can replace in the next couple years. Pilots and cargo ships being two of the most important items. Op WATCHTOWER @ Guadalcanal was a weak operation for the US, yet the Japanese suffered devastating losses against this outpost. At the end their fleet was weaker in surface ships, and their carrier force afloat but castrated without effective air groups. The same thisng was happening it the 1942 battle for New Guinea. Attrition of material & irreplaceable skilled combatants was unsustainable there.

In the latter half of 1942 about any offensive of stratigic weight Japan undertakes runs down their naval power, & Army air forces. This includes cargo shipping in most options.


...Next confrontation will probably be late 1943, against US Essex class carriers(4 of 'em at least). By that time Shokaku will be repaired and the Taiho finished. Maybe also Unryu and Amagi? Of course these 3 are completely inferior to the Essex class(maybe even the Yorktown class), but still. Its interesting.

Saratoga & Wasp were still fully operational. And the new US battleships were becoming operational as summer & autum passed. If the Japanese try the FS operation they will face a web of land based air plus two carriers. August-October 1942 was when Lt Gen Kenny started training the 5th Air Force in the highly effective extreme low level attack techniques - skip bombing as some label it. That imeadiatly started ramping up cargo ship losses in the South Pacific. There were a number of other fundamental shifts in favor of the US/Allied forces in the latter half of 1942. Using radar to full potential, training at all levels catching up with requirements, rising numbers of surface combatants, improving logistics, better doctrine and techniques/tactics... The Japanese were at their peak in early 1942 & about any major offensive operation weakens them.
 
The best way to look at Midway's ground defenses is to see it as a super Tarawa. The difference is that the American defenders at Midway had something in the area of 2-1 advantage in numbers and the Japanese lacked anything approaching the capability of the LVT.

The Japanese also did a piss-poor recon of the islets. How piss poor? Glad you asked. The Marines had a platoon of light tanks on Sand and the Japanese NEVER SAW THEM. Never saw them on a patch of ground that only had a land area of 1,200 acres.

This is a hilariously piss-poor recon. So they expected a 3 to edge in numbers, no tanks, and little protection. Instead, they would be the ones outnumbered, be vulnerable in those "please shoot me" rubber boats, and face cannon fire from unexpected sources. And they missed that in a land of 1,200 acres. Heck, even missing them in a plot of land 10 times as big is pretty crappy intel.

Lets look at the Aleutians.... for the Japanese it is a minor secondary theater. For the US is it also a secondary theater (albeit with more resources by far tossed into it). The weather is the worst anywhere were serious fighting occurred in World War II aside from possibly the far Arctic Front around Murmansk. Flight operations were typically more costly in air losses due to weather than enemy action. The Japanese had too few ground troops and amphibious craft available in June 1942 when they seized Kiska and Attu to also seize Dutch Harbor with the defenses already present. The two Japanese CVL airgroups present (about 50 aircraft) do not outnumber the USAAF aircraft present.

If the Japanese actually won Midway, to move in strength against the rest of the Aleutians would require assembling the shipping and warships and ground troops over the course of the summer of 1942 in time to make a landing at Dutch Harbor before the weather turned horrible instead of just frequently bad (precipitation, including snow, doubles in September from August, temperatures drop 10 degrees on average) and by October an amphibious campaign is out of the question due to weather.

(Note that the US invaded Kiska in August, and Attu on May 30 in OTL)

This seems like an unlikely Japanese course of action unless they planned such from the beginning instead of trying to act on a fleeting opportunity.

A more likely Japanese course of action is their planned FS Operation, aimed at New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, which would have been a tough fight for both sides due to a large concentration of Allied land based aircraft in the area by August, not to mention the rather powerful Allied garrisons present by that point. That operation was planned for July - August 1942. It was cancelled after Midway because of the loss of the 4 Japanese carriers.

Now lets look at a Japanese surface bombardment (the Bombardment of Henderson Field by 2 Japanese battleships on October 13, 1942

The Japanese fired off 973 rounds (nearly all of the their HE) for 2 hours 23 minutes at the airfield, destroying or wrecking 48 of 90 aircraft (which lacked revetments) and killed 41 men (who had just foxholes). They cratered the runway as well. That runway was operational just after dawn and the main limitation of the remaining aircraft was fuel shortages (fuel was unprotected).

So in ideal conditions from the Japanese standpoint they still could not knock out American aircraft capability, only weaken it. Midway is within ferry range (barely but definitely so) for the American Dauntless aircraft from the carriers and of course American aircraft can stage up from Oahu. Reinforcement is thus possible. For that matter the airgroup from the Saratoga, which arrived just after the battle historically (the carrier and its airgroup) can fly off the ship, attack the Japanese, recover at Midway, refuel, and return back to their carrier unless the Japanese manage to completely neutralize the field (unlikely for reasons already indicated).

Due to fuel constraints the Japanese would have to leave the area within a couple of days, with June 8 being the longest they can remain, and that most definitely includes the carriers.

A Japanese siege is therefore unlikely in the extreme, and as indicted by Calbear above a Japanese assault is almost certain to fail (and very messily so too).

Huh, I thought the Aleutians were a logical follow up to a capture of Midway and winning the battle of Midway (of course, here the battle of midway is won, the island is almost untakeable. For reasons I previously mentioned, I don't think it's impossible but less than a 1 in 1000 odds. Since they Americans lost 3 carriers and the Japanese zero, I guess Samoa is next? Also, Henderson Field isn't a great comparison since Midway has bunkers that can withstand 305 mm fire for the men. Presumably fuel, food, and ammo would be there too, although it might be hard to get a plane into the door.

So a siege is not going to happen (well, unless you count seven days as a "siege") and the island is safe. The airmen were also saved and Midway is within ferry range.

This is a good point. At the very least the defeat at sea will cause considerable distress among the Powers That Be in Washington and Pearl Harbor. This was the US Navy's best shot of the war to date, they were reading the cracked Japanese radio intercepts and knew exactly where the Japanese would be and when, they had achieved strategic surprise...then they still lost and 3 carriers are now at the bottom of the Pacific. I wouldn't be surprised if this casts doubt on the cryptananalysis effort as a whole - a lot of people might be wondering if the Japanese knew their code was cracked all along and if they'd been intentionally feeding false intel knowing the Americans would pick it up. The fact that the Japanese landings are repulsed makes it even worse if that's at all possible - if there was no way the Japanese could successfully invade Midway anyways, those carriers might as well have stayed safely in Pearl. Instead, it now looks like Nimitz made an ill-informed gamble and sent out 3 carriers to die in an utterly pointless and avoidable battle. The command structure in the Pacific likely gets shaken up; Spruance and Fletcher may get raked over the coals as well (if they even survived the battle, that is).

Why? In TTL, the Japanese achieved victory by conincidental means (I remember something about submarine pickets and coordination of surface ships and air recon that never really happened, in my OP I said that the nebulous plan worked). In other words, they didn't expect the USN to be there and only found it. In short, the Americans are reading the Japanese like an open book and the Japanese were only able to achieve this thanks to the sub picket. Also as I mentioned earlier, the loss of the flattops isn't that much of a problem if the pilots and planes are saved, and Galveston bay even mentioned a concrete plan.

Japanese expectations was the US would ask for a cease fire and wait for terms to be dictated, then negotiations which the Japanese would dominate. The had actually expected this months earlier & were a bit confused about the repeatedly defeated US continuing to fight.

So you are saying the Japanese would once again ask for a cease fire? Well, they are going to be disappointed. The Americans would just say "no f*** you, you made a surprise attack and you need to pay." I don't suppose the concept of a declaration of war is in the Japanese sensibilities?

Operation FS (Fiji Samoa) is oft raised as a 'next' operation for Japan. If they continue with offensives they are over extending themselves and raising expendenture of men and material beyond what they can replace in the next couple years. Pilots and cargo ships being two of the most important items. Op WATCHTOWER @ Guadalcanal was a weak operation for the US, yet the Japanese suffered devastating losses against this outpost. At the end their fleet was weaker in surface ships, and their carrier force afloat but castrated without effective air groups. The same thisng was happening it the 1942 battle for New Guinea. Attrition of material & irreplaceable skilled combatants was unsustainable there.

In the latter half of 1942 about any offensive of stratigic weight Japan undertakes runs down their naval power, & Army air forces. This includes cargo shipping in most options.

I somehow don't think another pass at Midway is in the Cards.

Ok, Operation FS might not be the best continuation, but how about a more limited offensive of taking a single island? OD you think that's what TTL Japanese High Command would do?

What would be their best military option at this point? The best option is obviously give up, but that's not a military option and they are a too dumb to do so anyways.

Saratoga & Wasp were still fully operational. And the new US battleships were becoming operational as summer & autum passed. If the Japanese try the FS operation they will face a web of land based air plus two carriers. August-October 1942 was when Lt Gen Kenny started training the 5th Air Force in the highly effective extreme low level attack techniques - skip bombing as some label it. That imeadiatly started ramping up cargo ship losses in the South Pacific. There were a number of other fundamental shifts in favor of the US/Allied forces in the latter half of 1942. Using radar to full potential, training at all levels catching up with requirements, rising numbers of surface combatants, improving logistics, better doctrine and techniques/tactics... The Japanese were at their peak in early 1942 & about any major offensive operation weakens them.

Ok, so even after TTL midway, the Japanese are completely screwed over (as I expected given the industrial might of US)

Let's play a bit of scenario here. Let's suppose the skip bombing isn't trained at all, or if it is, the tactic isn't used against he defenseless cargo ships. The hellcat development is delayed, leaving the Grumman F4F the most advanced carrier plane for awhile. What do you think would play out? The Saratoga and Wasp as you mentioned would be fully operational. Galveston Bay mentioned how Midway itself could be used. An FS Operation is doomed to fail. Is it all that different that OTL?[/QUOTE]
 
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... Is it all that different that OTL?

More blood spilled perhaps? Or perhaps the US S Pacific offensive is reduced to some containment operations & more material/men are available for Europe in 1943-44, or elsewhere?

but how about a more limited offensive of taking a single island? OD you think that's what TTL Japanese High Command would do?

Well, they did occupy Guadalcanal for a airfield shortly after the Midway battle in early July. (Tulagi was occupied in May) They also made the second attempt to seize Miline Bay, actually landing on 25 August.
 
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