Midway Island Siege?

Suppose USA's ships got spotted before the Battle of Midway and got smacked by battleship fire. I think there was some convoluted plan and the submarines were suppose to spot the Americans.

Whatever the original plan was...

Let's say this is the result. The Japanese suffer the loss of a single cruiser and 30 shot down planes. Akagi suffers light damage and the runway is not flat enough to launch planes. USA loses 4 heavy cruisers and all 3 carriers. The carriers are all taken down by battleship fire. 90 American planes are shot down. Basically, as lopsided as the OTL Midway, except this time the side with more tonnage wins.

But... the planes can land at Midway Island.

OTL Midway lacks fuel and ammunition to support all the carrier planes. Let's say that our second POD is that Midway island is stocked with 3 years of food (for the marines and the crewmen), lots of fuel, lots of amour-piercing bombs, lots of anti-aircraft shells, and some torpedoes.

So... does the American material losses at midway even matter that much? The planes can still operate from the island. The AA of a base is surly more formidable than a carrier (plenty of room!).

The island can't be taken by force with American air superiority, can it?

And surly the defenders have something to hunker down in during bombardment right?
 
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Well we need to state the obvious:

How did the supplies get there?

Unless they were brought there before the war, the Japanese would sense something suspicious with planes and ships with supplies heading towards the island. They would fear attack and probably subdue the island. Besides that if U.S won the battle differently still the war would go in the same course. Unless Japan won. Still the U.S would win the war.
 
The Midway invasion force and occupation force had supplies with them, not sure how much though. Not for 3 years.
 
How did the supplies get there?

I don't know. Let's say someone put in a few extra zeros in a form before the war and the supplies got there. I know China in OTL in the 90s moved lots of shells by rail to some mountain base by accident.

The thing is, if Japan can't take the island, the war doesn't even change course significantly. If the Americans try to land at gauducanal, Japanese air superiority can't actually stop the landing while Midway is being used as a base by Americans
 
Historically the runways on Midway' s Eastern Island were not suppressed because they were not considered a threat.

If supplies are built up the runways will be suppressed and the majority of planes will be unable to complete a landing.
 
I find it interesting that i actually never heard anyone talk about the takeability of Midway by the Japanses invasion force. I mean, the USN is gone in the area, all they have is planes. Good luck against 2 battleships, 8 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers and 20 destroyers. Thats a lot of firepower coming at yah. Talking about AA too.
 
Historically the runways on Midway' s Eastern Island were not suppressed because they were not considered a threat.

If supplies are built up the runways will be suppressed and the majority of planes will be unable to complete a landing.

If supplies were built up (hey, if it was done before the war, there would be no way to know anyways) and the strip was not suppressed yet, would the first thing TTL Japanese 1st Fleet do is try to take out that airfield? Would they even be able to do it with the AA defenses (which are more formidable than carrier or crusier AA)?
 
I find it interesting that i actually never heard anyone talk about the takeability of Midway by the Japanses invasion force. I mean, the USN is gone in the area, all they have is planes. Good luck against 2 battleships, 8 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers and 20 destroyers. Thats a lot of firepower coming at yah. Talking about AA too.

Well... what do you think? 3 coastal batteries don't offer the defenders that much firepower, but the US Marines are there right? What's 30 to 1 odds, if they are on the defense?

And surly... before the war someone must have built a bunker that can stand 200 mm shells, right?
 
If supplies were built up (hey, if it was done before the war, there would be no way to know anyways) and the strip was not suppressed yet, would the first thing TTL Japanese 1st Fleet do is try to take out that airfield? Would they even be able to do it with the AA defenses (which are more formidable than carrier or crusier AA)?
Historically they attacked the airfield, noted that there was no planes and decided not to crater the airfield with the idea that the planes based there were not a significant threat and the airfield could be used after capture.


Unless there is a significant airgroup defending the island anti air will take a few kills but does not offer immunity to air attack.
 
Well... what do you think? 3 coastal batteries don't offer the defenders that much firepower, but the US Marines are there right? What's 30 to 1 odds, if they are on the defense?

And surly... before the war someone must have built a bunker that can stand 200 mm shells, right?

Well yeah its highly defendable i agree. But like its said with the supplies in danger and siege underway, how long can they hold out? I mean, there is no rescue coming and i doubt they would fight as fircely as japanese soldiers tended to do. Not saying they won't defend with every breath, but they can see defeat better.

They would just get shelled for hours, maybe days. How long can anyone stand that?
 
Historically they attacked the airfield, noted that there was no planes and decided not to crater the airfield with the idea that the planes based there were not a significant threat and the airfield could be used after capture.

I guess in TTL, they'll do that... and then once the Battle of Midway goes to the IJN, all the USN planes will be funneling their way there. It's a fixed target so the Japanese will know where to find it and someone must notice them all going to Midway. Let's say the Americans manage to land, refuel, and get 30 Grumman F4Fs airborne by the time the IJN planes are back. There are still over a dozen planes that need to land and hundreds that haven't yet refueled.

Do the Japanese strike with bombers only (suicide against this setup)? Is it a mix of fighters and bombers? Can they crater the runway?

Also, I said the USN flattops got sunk by surface ships. The IJN bombers would have their payloads ready and be circling around until they get the order "crater midway."
 
They would just get shelled for hours, maybe days. How long can anyone stand that?

I know some bunkers are there that can withstand 310 mm shells. The question is... were they built in 1955 for the cold war (when the article talks about what was there) or in 1930s for a hypothetical pacific war.

If the bunkers existed in WW2, it's just sit tight and hope the shells don't hit the runway or AA batteries (the only things not protected).
 
Also, I said the USN flattops got sunk by surface ships."

Oh right, forgot you said that.That would mean the Main force of Yamamoto has arrived at Midway, ho will be able to help with the siege. Add another 5 battleships including the Yamato. You know that thing could fire from 35 KM away?
 
And surly... before the war someone must have built a bunker that can stand 200 mm shells, right?

Construction of fortifications did not start until. 1941. A lot of concrete was poured after that.

In favour of the defender's Japanese doctrine designated destroyers and light cruisers for shore bombardment. Japanese battle ship commanders considered such tasks as beneath their dignity. @ Guadalcanal the Japanese bombarded the airfield for two months with light ships, before committing a battleship to the task.
 
Construction of fortifications did not start until. 1941. A lot of concrete was poured after that.

In favour of the defender's Japanese doctrine designated destroyers and light cruisers for shore bombardment. Japanese battle ship commanders considered such tasks as beneath their dignity. @ Guadalcanal the Japanese bombarded the airfield for two months with light ships, before committing a battleship to the task.

So, you argue that they will likely be able to withstand some siege thanks to Japanese stupidity, but you think Midway's still going down?
 
Also, I said the USN flattops got sunk by surface ships. The IJN bombers would have their payloads ready and be circling around until they get the order "crater midway."
Historically the first attack on Midway island at the start of the battle would have had a mix of fighters and bombers. Their goal was to attack any planes on the ground but not to crater the runway as the small number of planes with small numbers of supplies were not a significant threat.
 
Construction of fortifications did not start until. 1941. A lot of concrete was poured after that.

In favour of the defender's Japanese doctrine designated destroyers and light cruisers for shore bombardment. Japanese battle ship commanders considered such tasks as beneath their dignity. @ Guadalcanal the Japanese bombarded the airfield for two months with light ships, before committing a battleship to the task.

hm, seems like a waste of firepower to me. Japanese were really quite stuck with their doctrines weren't they?

If i was defedning Midway and i saw the Yamato on the horizon, hear it fire and see its shell pass over my head my white flag goes up.
 
So, you argue that they will likely be able to withstand some siege thanks to Japanese stupidity, but you think Midway's still going down?

Heres the thing. The fleet could only hang around a week or less, at about five days they have to start sending ships back to Truk or Japan to refuel. Neither the USN of IJN had enough oilers in mid 1942 to keep a fleet that size at sea very long. So if they do not capture the island imeadiatly only a relatively light force can hang around. Midway was even further from Japanese naval bases that Guadalcannal. In the latter case the Japanese could not maintain a close naval siege, they had to raid and return to base.

Second problem is the landing force was out numbered by the defense. The intelligence service grossly underestimated the numbers of men and weapons. Its very likely the first attack would have been repulsed. At that point the fleet would have had to retire to refuel & rearm, and a new assault force organized.

A year ago there was a extended discussion of the defense preparations for Midway in this forum. I'll try to locate and link it.

Trivia note. The Japanese landing force for Midway had two components, one was a battalion of naval infantry from a SNLF unit. The other was a Army detachment commanded by LtCol Ichiki. This was the same unit and commander who two months later were massacred in a frontal attack on Guadalcanal. Ichiki had made his bones in China beating up on poorly led and badly trained militia and warlord armies. His experience had taught him a robust bayonet charge supported by a few light machine guns was the solution to every tactical situation. Against well trained and reasonably led men on Guadalcannal it got his command wiped out in a single night attack. I don't know how good the SNLF assault group was but have to wonder if Ichikis group would have lasted to sun set on the landing beach.
 
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