Midway: A Diversion Too Far.

Sure the initial landing force will get mauled, no doubt, but the second wave's going to have all the air support and bombardment support it's going to need.

Maybe not. The proposed third strike at Pearl Harbor never happened for a number of reasons, but one was lack of avgas. When "Hiryu" and "Soryu" were detached to aid the Wake Invasion forces their commander was told flat out the carriers could make one strike only as avgas was very short, at which point the carriers would have to return to Japan.

Assuming Yamamoto's plan worked and there was no initial naval battle there still would have been a need for aerial support. But the carriers would have to limit that in order to insure there was enough avgas for their airwings to be able to attack the US Fleet racing to retake Midway.

If there was a naval battle first then avgas stocks would be depleted, perhaps enough to prohibit extensive air support. And Japan didn't have anything like the US Marines had later where troops could call for attacks on specific targets, the troops would be unable to communicate with the aircraft at all.
 

Markus

Banned
One thing you're forgetting Markus is that @ Wake the shore batteries were useless after the IJN carrier wings got through with them. In regards to this hypothetical battle of Midway, the Island's coastal batteries are going to be pretty much a oneshot deal.

Two remarks. First the japanese air raid did not destroy a single heavy gun on Midway. Second, the Marines had far more automatic weapons than on Wake and they got all beaches covered.


Sure the initial landing force will get mauled, no doubt, but the second wave's going to have all the air support and bombardment support it's going to need. The Midway garrison may be able to inflict a hell of a lot of casualties, but they're going to fall eventually, no doubt about it.

Even if there is enough infantry for a 2nd wave, it will be outnumbered by the defenders at least 2:1.
 
Maybe not. The proposed third strike at Pearl Harbor never happened for a number of reasons, but one was lack of avgas. When "Hiryu" and "Soryu" were detached to aid the Wake Invasion forces their commander was told flat out the carriers could make one strike only as avgas was very short, at which point the carriers would have to return to Japan.

Assuming Yamamoto's plan worked and there was no initial naval battle there still would have been a need for aerial support. But the carriers would have to limit that in order to insure there was enough avgas for their airwings to be able to attack the US Fleet racing to retake Midway.

If there was a naval battle first then avgas stocks would be depleted, perhaps enough to prohibit extensive air support. And Japan didn't have anything like the US Marines had later where troops could call for attacks on specific targets, the troops would be unable to communicate with the aircraft at all.

Though you do make a valid point about the lack of communication between Japanese troops and their aircraft, I do believe the premise of the thread is that the US does not seriously defend Midway and instead wipes out the Aleutian Island force. As a result in this TL's Battle for Midway there should be plenty of Gas to go around...Also take into account that the Japanese have a large number of BB's onhand which do not require avgas.

Two remarks. First the japanese air raid did not destroy a single heavy gun on Midway. Second, the Marines had far more automatic weapons than on Wake and they got all beaches covered.
....Even if there is enough infantry for a 2nd wave, it will be outnumbered by the defenders at least 2:1.

Though your second point is certainly valid, the first is not. There was a reason the Japanese air raid did not destroy a single heavy gun on Midway they weren't aiming for them. IIRC the purpose of the first Japanese airstrike on Midway was to destroy the airplanes and AA defenses to pave the way for future attacks.

Futhermore the Japanese have WAY more resources allocated to Midway than Wake including a fair number of BB's. The way I see it, any way you slice it the Marines on Midway are certainly facing LONG odds.
 
The USN had other ships at sea besides the carrier TFs at Midway and the cruiser force in the Aleutians. TF-1, the Pacific Fleet's BBs, was at sea with 7 BBs and the CVE Block Island. CV Saratoga was headed for Pearl Harbor with her 100+ planes between her air group and cargo. If you add TF-1 and Saratoga's group to the USN forces at the Battle of the Aleutians, the USN has a powerful fleet. Still inferior in numbers to the IJN, except for possibly total carrier aircraft. But the USN has the advantage of knowing the Japanese are tied to Midway. 4 CVs can do a lot of damage.

Regarding the capture of Midway, the Japanese didn't have the Amtracks or landing craft the USMC had at Tarawa. Midway does have the reefs a good distance away from the beaches. And the Japanese invasion force doesn't have numerical superiority over the defenders. Or if there is numerical superiority, it is not by much.

If the situation was reversed, the US invading a Japanese island with the same relative forces and defenses, how would we rate the battle? Or say the US invading a German-held island?

Michael
 

Markus

Banned
IIRC the purpose of the first Japanese airstrike on Midway was to destroy the airplanes and AA defenses to pave the way for future attacks.

Still, the AAA remained very intact after air strike No.1


Futhermore the Japanese have WAY more resources allocated to Midway than Wake including a fair number of BB's. The way I see it, any way you slice it the Marines on Midway are certainly facing LONG odds.

BB so what? They did not intend to use them for NGFS. Four CA were to fire a short barrage followed by the landing of the infantry. At Tawara actual BB fired for a longer time and the defenders still survived.
 

burmafrd

Banned
The IJN had very little practice and doctrine established for shore bombardment beyond destroying previously identified shore batteries. As regards support of an actual amphibious assault they were pretty much out to lunch. And you must remember that Ichiki was going to be the commander and as dumb goes he was right down there. The numbers of troops there were going to use were pretty limited- they had no idea that we had that many marines on Midway. I really do not see a successful assault under any circumstances. Not to mention we would NOT have abandoned the Marines- at the very least hit and run raids by cruisers and destroyers and of course air raids - not to mention we would parked at least a couple of subs there= now of course with the torp problem that would probably not accomplish a lot of material damage but imagine the workd the IJN would have to put in worrying about them after the first attack or two?
 
Top