alternatehistory.com

Okay, so the premise of the scenario is:
  • The Warsaw Pact, through some kind of economic reforms or something like that, hangs on, and the Cold War keeps going (I know it's kind of ASB but that's not the point).
  • China, while friendlier to the West than the USSR, is not to keen to collaborate with them. Still, China is not powerful or influential enough to form a 3rd Bloc.
  • Venezuela gets coup'd by some Chavez substitute (or Chavez himself if that's plausible) in 1993, and gets a leftist government supported by the USSR. This increases East-West tension.
  • Hussein still kind of lose the Iran-Iraq war. To recover lost prestige he tries invading Kuwait in 1990, thinking that the USSR will support him. This doesn't happen and he gets a beating. The USSR kind of abandons Irak and instead approaches Syria (which has allways been a more close ally than Saddam). Saddam, out of pride rejects more dealings with the USSR. China kind of replaces the Soviets, but having neither their political influence nor money they remain in good terms rather than being close allies.
  • To counter Saudi influence in the Gulf now that Irak and them are on bad terms, the USSR supports Iran. Iran and Syria are already on good terms so this doesn't hurt their relations with the Syrians. Iran is also an enemy of Israel and the West, and looks to deestabilize the "heretic" Saudis. Keep in mind though that both sides view this relationship as one born out of necessity more than anything.
  • To try solving the Afghan mess the USSR resorts to army raids and bombing raids in the Pakistani Tribal Areas 1995. This SEVERELY strains their relations with the West, but a major conflict with either NATO or Pakistan is avoided. The Mujahedeen are weakened, and India approaches the Soviet Bloc due to their shared enemy Pakistan. Afghanistan is not a good place to live, but at least is somewhat pacified (if only in the cities and major roads).
  • The Iranians get the Bomb in 2008/2009 (somehow). They have a small arsenal of 70-80 small yield bombs. The Saudis got an arsenal from the Pakistanis little later (I know it's not very plausible but...).
So, with this scenario, we get to 2014. Saddam is still in power in Irak, but he sank the country into international isolation and the economy got really bad due to this (the West gets his oil form the Saudis and the Gulf, the East from Iran and, even if he had a trading partner the war of 1990 left him with a country with almost no infrastructure). He still burns the oil wells of Kuwait and the south during the war, so he really hasn't much to sell. To survive mounting dissidence he turns to more and more repressive policies at home, turning into a Middle Eastern North Korea.
In 2014 he's killed by a Shi'a militant. The country quickly descents into turmoil. The Iranis and the Syrians (backed by the USSR) intervene in behalf of the Shi'a. The Saudis feel that they are getting encircled and intervene. The Kurds declare independence in the north.
So now Irak is a 3 way battlefield between Iran and Syria, the Saudis and other Gulf States and the Kurds. After some months of conventional fighting through Mesopotamia the Iranians break through and invade Saudi Arabia proper. The Saudis panic and the result is a three way nuclear war between the Saudis, the Iranians and the Israelis (who fired at both sides to make sure they had no more nukes left). The Middle East collapse, the only surviving states being Israel (who got "just" Tel Aviv and Haifa nuked), Oman, South Yemen, Egypt and Turkey (due to being neutral).
Now, after that VERY long setup the question is: what are the middle to long effects on world economy and politics?
(Sorry for not being able to sumarize).
Top