Deleted member 1487
Its clear that the British would probably get away relatively intact via panic as per Mersa Matruh and fall back on the Nile. The Axis take Alexandria while OTL reinforcements (Axis paras, Italian armored division, German motorized division 164th IIRC) move out toward the Nile. So the Brits post up on the Nile, flooding parts of it per plan and perhaps deal with some unrest and perhaps guerrilla action in their rear areas from Egyptians.For the record, I know the principles, just didn't see the preceeding 5 Pages as very Constructive.
You managed to make a constructive statement here. A Key question is if the British collapsed forward or withdrew in an orderly fashion. Wiking?
You are noting me wrong BTW. I am simply stating that the axis must get to Suez before there Can be an after Suez is taken chain of events. Now lets discuss this based on either orderly withdrawal or major defeat.
A major issue going forward will be Desert Air Force and USAAF bombing of Alexandria to shut down the port. Given the size of it though it will be hard to shut it down completely given the remaining air bases and threats against Cairo's air bases. Another big issue though for the Allies is that they will have lost bases they used west of the Nile to bomb Axis supply lines and will therefore be able to generate less sorties then than they did from 1st Alamein on IOTL. Also they will likely have to drop the bombing of Tobruk and Benghazi to focus on bombing Alexandria, meaning more can be shipped in further west. With the fall of Alexandria the rolling stock of the Egyptian rail roads will be in Axis hands, meaning the rail lines from Alexandria to Libya will be available to move supplies from Tobruk to Alexandria to help make up for reduced port capacity due to Allied bombing there. Then the Allies have to worry about a potential Axis para drop over the Nile to breach the river defenses and those Axis troops perhaps linking up with Egyptian resistance. If the Brits really have to worry about their supply lines due to restive natives they aren't going to be defending the Nile that well, as they'll need to keep men in reserve just in case. I'm sure there will be collaboration west of the Nile and friendly Egyptians organized and dropped East of the Nile too.