The POD of the Axis troops getting into position on time and attacking on time is 'an extensive and multiple' POD?
The sunken British BBs were floated and shipped out to the US for repairs by July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Valiant_%281914%29#World_War_II
Valiant went to South Africa and didn't return until 1943, QE went to the US for repairs; she left in June 1942 and didn't return until later, well after the POD.
Given that the entire point of the thread wasn't about 1st Alamein, it was about what the British would do if there was a Middle Eastern Front in 1942, I was curious about exploring strategy in that context, not getting into a pissing match with people that want to dismiss out of hand anything that they don't want to talk about.
Its not that unlikely things could come together that would disrupt the British ability to get defenses ready in time at Alamein and result in another defeat. Its in fact quite a bit different than the Germans somehow winning the BoB.
Also its not exactly unprecedented for the British to panic and retreat when they were in the power position. I mean Malaysia in 1942 is a prime example, plus the ridiculous numbers of defeats the British suffered in the Western Desert during 1941-42 due to terrible tactics, slipshod organization, and frayed nerves. They should have won Gazala and not lost Tobruk like they did, nor should they have lost Battleaxe in 1941. So its not unprecedented at all for them to screw the pooch in that theater.
The problem is that getting an Axis victory at 1st Alamein is in itself rather unlikely. It’s not just a question of the Imperial defences being in place, it’s the fact that Rommel’s attack was a mistake from start to finish. His men had been driven a long way ahead of their supplies, they were desperately tired, substantially outnumbered and above all critically short on all kinds of supplies. There was only so much that they could give Rommel and whilst it was enough to parry Auchinleck’s clumsy counter-attacks, they just didn’t have enough to break through.
A better question would be what would have happened if Montgomery had not been in charge at Alam Halfa, because I am not at all convinced in the Auk’s defensive plan, still less Dorman-Smith’s refinements. But I think that this has been discussed elsewhere.