Middle East Front 1942

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... most of the Arab world is going to be indifferent to these Christian state wars and I can't imagine anybody would want to trade British for Italian masters.

without clear colonial aims of Italians they might have been able to direct (or at least promote) region wide uprising(s)

All in all Egypt and especially beyond doesn't seem worth it for Germany. Probably easier to get Miakop and Grozny oil back to Germany than Iraqi oil (or just get Soviet oil by trading with them instead of attacking

if they did not end their alliance with USSR they could have maintained economic and military missions in Iran and Afghanistan.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
When?

We can have all sorts of PODs. Perhaps the weather is a bit better, they have slightly more transport working out to get supplies forward so the offensive jumps off on time, which means the defenses wouldn't get reorganized.

The only thing that needs to change is the outcome of 1st Alamein and British positions in Egypt fall apart. My OP handwaved how that happened, as it would likely have to be something earlier so that they can transport supplies a bit better, as they captured fuel and whatnot at Matruh. Get that forward on time and things likely work out.

When? July, 1942?

You may want to look at the balance of forces a little more deeply. The Germans and Italians were outfought, out supplied, and out-generalled by the British et al; given they were outnumbered roughly 1.5 to 1 in personnel, 2-1 in tanks, and 3-1 in the air, and the British were on the defensive, it's not really surprising.

And the casualties reflected that ... The Axis lost roughly 17,000 and the British some 13,000.

There's no chance that's going to end up an Axis victory.

Best,
 

Deleted member 1487

The info is simply wrong. WW2 advances supplied by road rather inevitably petered out around 400-500 kilometres from the nearest port or railhead, due to exponential transport requirements.

When you look at the distances between the major ports of Libya and Egypt, they tend to be around that limit, meaning anyone advancing eastward has a hard time as they were very much at the end of their tether, and the defender was sitting on a logistics hub.

The British, having actually paid attention to this issue both prior and during the war, appropriately invested in Egypt's infrastructure and their own forces logistical assets (both material and personnel) so they could better avoid this problem. This is why the Eighth Army was always significantly larger than the Axis forces in North Africa, which was decisive in stopping Rommel at Alamein.

Which, aside from being predicated on the Germans breaching defenses they physically do not have the forces and supplies to breach, is also predicated on them taking Alexandria and those dumps intact. Both of these essentially require more then the British substituting lead time for tea time: it requires God to descend from the heavens and grant the Germans unlimited tanks, men, and fuel. And we do have a forum for that...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_El_Alamein#Battle_of_Mersa_Matruh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_El_Alamein#cite_note-18 Axis forces captured more than 6,000 prisoners, in addition to 40 tanks and an enormous quantity of supplies.[16]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mersa_Matruh#Mersa_Matruh
Mersa Matruh (Mersa: anchorage) was a small port 120 miles (190 km) east of the wire, mid-way between Cyrenica and El Alamein, connected to Alexandria by rail. The harbour was 1.5 miles (2.4 km) long and enclosed a small, deep-water anchorage.[18] Matruh had been fortified in 1940, before the Italian invasion of Egypt (Operazione E) and was further strengthened during the build up for Operation Crusader in 1941.[19] It was the last coastal fortress in Allied possession.[20] The town is located on a narrow coastal plain that extends inland 10 miles (16 km) to an escarpment. Further south is another narrow plain 12 miles (19 km) to the Sidi Hamaza escarpment.[12] At the eastern end of this escarpment is the Minqar Qaim track. Beyond the upper escarpment lies the high desert, extending 80 miles (130 km) south to the Qattara Depression.[12] The western approach to the town was extensively mined and the minefield had been extended around the southern approach to the town but the eastern approach to the fortress was open. An airfield was just inland and the main avenue of retreat ran along the coast road (Via Balbia) through the town.

Desptire British defenses the Axis forces won at Mersa Matruh and got the port, plus captured British supplies.
 

Deleted member 1487

When? July, 1942?

You may want to look at the balance of forces a little more deeply. The Germans and Italians were outfought, out supplied, and out-generalled by the British et al; given they were outnumbered roughly 1.5 to 1 in personnel, 2-1 in tanks, and 3-1 in the air, and the British were on the defensive, it's not really surprising.

And the casualties reflected that ... The Axis lost roughly 17,000 and the British some 13,000.

There's no chance that's going to end up an Axis victory.

Best,
How did the Axis win the Battle of Gazala and Mersa Matruh then?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
At Gazala, the ratio was 1.1 to .9

How did the Axis win the Battle of Gazala and Mersa Matruh then?

At Gazala, the ratio was 1.1 to .9 (in favor of the Allies, but 8th Army was led by Neil Ritchie, so it's pretty much a wash) and there was an open flank; at Mersa Matruh, the 8th Army was still retreating, there was an open flank, there was no army commander on scene, and the two corps commanders involved were trying to fight an army-level battle by committee.

Slight differences with 1st Alamein, Alam Halfa, and 2nd Alamein.

Best,
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_El_Alamein#Battle_of_Mersa_Matruh


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mersa_Matruh#Mersa_Matruh

Desptire British defenses the Axis forces won at Mersa Matruh and got the port, plus captured British supplies.
Via outflanking the British defenses: had Rommel attempted a frontal assault, he would have surely failed. This is not an option at El Alamein: the Qattara Depression means there is no flank to turn. There is no choice but to attack into the teeth of the British defenses. As history shows, the Germans were too weak to do so. They did not have the forces or the supplies to do it. Additionally, the Mersa Matruh port was of no importance (so the British wouldn't have even bothered to try and demolish it) and the dumps were immediately behind the British defences instead of a hundred kilometers off. None of this is applicable at El Alamein in regards to Alexandria: even had a sufficiently-sized meteorite chosen to land on the British forces a few hours before the battle, the Brits would have still had a few days to evacuate/destroy the dumps and level the port facilities due to the time it takes to move division-sized formations.

I also find it amusing that you quote the taking of 6,000 prisoners as if it means anything when it (and indeed all the British casualties in the battle) represent basically a insignificant proportion of British forces.
 
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Nicely summed up.

Notice how the Axis just leaped over the Alamein-Quattara position, leaped across the desert between Alamein and the Nile, took Alexandria, found airlift for four parachute RCTs or whatever, found bridging equipment magically for the Nile, fought their way through two of the largest cities in the region, found more bridging equipment for the Suez, etc...

It's interesting; apparently none of these troops need food, water, ammunition, or gasoline.

Best,

pah!
Let them eat coal...:p
 
Alexandria is a massive port that could be used once captured.
Alamein to Alexandria is only 111km, about 2-3 hours by road. Really the only issue is taking Alexandria and the port and huge British supply dumps are captured. The British fleet is out of an anchorage and will have a hard time interdicting Axis supply via convoy due to losing their air and naval bases. Then once with that supply source they can spread out with Egyptian help to liberate/conquer the country. Alexandria is the only thing that needs to be taken, then the rest, other than leaping the Suez is possible and easy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Port

Because we all know the British Army and the RN are completely unable to demolish port facilities...

Come to that, how are the Axis going to enjoy 15" bricks landing on them when they get closer to Alexandria?
 
Alexandria is a massive port that could be used once captured.
Alamein to Alexandria is only 111km, about 2-3 hours by road. Really the only issue is taking Alexandria and the port and huge British supply dumps are captured. The British fleet is out of an anchorage and will have a hard time interdicting Axis supply via convoy due to losing their air and naval bases. Then once with that supply source they can spread out with Egyptian help to liberate/conquer the country. Alexandria is the only thing that needs to be taken, then the rest, other than leaping the Suez is possible and easy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Port

But the Allies have plenty of ports to fall back to like Malta, Haifa, Tripoli(palestine), Cyprus and even Beirut. Even after Pedestal, which was only meant for Malta, the Italian navy, since the Taranto raid, had little surface vessels out that could help defend their convoys on their way to Alexandria against the RN in the area. They would encounter the same problems as the Allies had with Malta, only now its a port on mainland and much more directly threathened by big enemy surface ships(including 2 carriers).
 

Deleted member 1487

Because we all know the British Army and the RN are completely unable to demolish port facilities...

Come to that, how are the Axis going to enjoy 15" bricks landing on them when they get closer to Alexandria?
In a few days? IOTL at the time of 1st Alamein they hadn't prepared port destruction and if the Axis forces breach the defenses and move on there isn't anything more that they can do other than minor damage.

As to British BBs what did they have on hand in early July after the Alexandria raid sank two British BBs and left the Italian navy with BB superiority? They were able to turn back Malta convoys from the East that were heavily escorted in July 1942. And who is spotting in the city of Alexandria, especially if the Egyptians revolt against the British? They were apparently eager to get the British out once the Axis were in a major city; by providing major support they were expecting to form up and help liberate themselves so they wouldn't just be a vassal that would result from an Axis only liberation from the British.

Basically this thread is a complete waste of time, isn't it?
If you think so why are you posting here?

Via outflanking the British defenses: had Rommel attempted a frontal assault, he would have surely failed. This is not an option at El Alamein: the Qattara Depression means there is no flank to turn. There is no choice but to attack into the teeth of the British defenses. As history shows, the Germans were too weak to do so. They did not have the forces or the supplies to do it. Additionally, the Mersa Matruh port was of no importance (so the British wouldn't have even bothered to try and demolish it) and the dumps were immediately behind the British defences instead of a hundred kilometers off. None of this is applicable at El Alamein in regards to Alexandria: even had a sufficiently-sized meteorite chosen to land on the British forces a few hours before the battle, the Brits would have still had a few days to evacuate/destroy the dumps and level the port facilities due to the time it takes to move division-sized formations.
The defenses at Alamein were improvised in few days, it wasn't like Gazala or what Alamein became a month later. The Depression was well to the south, on July 1st there was major gaps in the defense line:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_El_Alamein#Defences_at_El_Alamein
The British Army in Egypt recognised this before the war[17] and had the Eighth Army begin construction of several "boxes" (localities with dug-outs and surrounded by minefields and barbed wire), the most developed being around the railway station at Alamein. Most of the "line", however, was just open, empty desert.[18] Lieutenant-General William Norrie (GOC XXX Corps) organised the position and started to construct three defended "boxes". The first and strongest, at El Alamein on the coast, had been partly wired and mined by 1st South African Division. The Bab el Qattara box—some 20 mi (32 km) from the coast and 8 mi (13 km) south-west of the Ruweisat Ridge—had been dug but had not been wired or mined, while at the Naq Abu Dweis box (on the edge of the Qattara Depression), 34 mi (55 km) from the coast, very little work had been done.[18]

The scattering of X Corps at Mersa Matruh disrupted Auchinleck's plan for occupying the Alamein defences. On 29 June, he ordered XXX Corps—South African 1st, Indian 5th and 10th Infantry Divisions—to take the coastal sector on the right of the front and XIII Corps—New Zealand and Indian 5th Divisions—to be on the left. The remains of 1st and 7th Armoured Divisions were to be held as a mobile army reserve.[21] His intention was for the fixed defensive positions to canalise and disorganise the enemy's advance while mobile units would attack their flanks and rear.[22]
I also find it amusing that you quote the taking of 6,000 prisoners as if it means anything when it (and indeed all the British casualties in the battle) represent basically a insignificant proportion of British forces.
The quote was really for the phrase 'enormous quantities of supplies captured', which was where they were drawing supply from, plus the port at Matruh

What is truly scary here is that Gudestein is actually putting more logistical thought into his Nazi Conquest of Egypt™ than Wiking...
Really the only thing that is needed is a victory at 1st Alamein and the capture of Alexandria in the aftermath, which yields the supplies needed in the city, plus the port needed for supply, while removing the RAF's air bases to harass Axis supply and removes the British naval anchorage, while yielding one for the Italian navy.
 
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AIUI, First Alamein consisted of a few days of unsuccessful German attacks, after which German exhaustion gave the initiative back to the British, who expended it on three weeks of internecine attritional slugging.

From this, the best chance of a German victory is on the very first day and every day that passes without that is a British strategic success, given the logistical issues. But the Wiki article doesn't suggest much hope even there - Rommel wanted to attack a day earlier, but his forces weren't in position, and by the time that the attack was launched, British forces freshly arrived from Iraq had established a blocking position on Ruweisat Ridge.

So a POD before the battle is required - some way of so disorganising the British forces that they can't form a line at Alamein. But given their mobility and the dominance of the Desert Air Force, it just improbable. It seems that Rommel took the best plausible advantage that he could of the victories at Mersa and Gazala, and it just wasn't enough.
 

Deleted member 1487

AIUI, First Alamein consisted of a few days of unsuccessful German attacks, after which German exhaustion gave the initiative back to the British, who expended it on three weeks of internecine attritional slugging.

From this, the best chance of a German victory is on the very first day and every day that passes without that is a British strategic success, given the logistical issues. But the Wiki article doesn't suggest much hope even there - Rommel wanted to attack a day earlier, but his forces weren't in position, and by the time that the attack was launched, British forces freshly arrived from Iraq had established a blocking position on Ruweisat Ridge.

So a POD before the battle is required - some way of so disorganising the British forces that they can't form a line at Alamein. But given their mobility and the dominance of the Desert Air Force, it just improbable. It seems that Rommel took the best plausible advantage that he could of the victories at Mersa and Gazala, and it just wasn't enough.

My handwaving in the OP was that something happens that gets the Axis in place before the British, so that they are able to breach the line and move on to Alexandria, while the reinforcements from Iraq are disrupted and fall back on the Nile due to the confusion of the Axis getting through their line. Of course IOTL Rommel didn't have enough to get through, the POD is that he does for whatever reason on the first day.

Though the British had positions just west of Alexandria just started, it was even less prepared than Alamein and the British staff were preparing to bug out, suggesting that a defeat at Alamein would mean they weren't really prepared to defend that last ditch line.
 
Really the only thing that is needed is a victory at 1st Alamein and the capture of Alexandria in the aftermath, which yields the supplies needed in the city, plus the port needed for supply, while removing the RAF's air bases to harass Axis supply and removes the British naval anchorage, while yielding one for the Italian navy.

You know I don't even need to point how much this statement is not true as you start on the job yourself:

My handwaving in the OP was that something happens that gets the Axis in place before the British, so that they are able to breach the line and move on to Alexandria, while the reinforcements from Iraq are disrupted and fall back on the Nile due to the confusion of the Axis getting through their line. Of course IOTL Rommel didn't have enough to get through, the POD is that he does for whatever reason on the first day.

So you rely on not one but two quite extensive PODs while ignoring that the British have a strong chance dare I say overwhelming probability of holding Alex even so?

I mean if the QE and the Valiant were to be 'sunk' then the RN has two ready made fortresses in the harbour of Alexandria that would make dismantling or refloating the scuttled hulks that would be the quick and dirty way to close the port even harder.

Though the British had positions just west of Alexandria just started, it was even less prepared than Alamein and the British staff were preparing to bug out, suggesting that a defeat at Alamein would mean they weren't really prepared to defend that last ditch line.

I think ObsessedNuker pointed out in one of the recent BoB threads but all your plans come down to relying on the British running like headless chickens before the glorious uber Aryan heroes...when your plan is reliant on the "lack of moral fibre" of the enemy then it is probably a bad plan...though you are far from the first to suffer from that error.
 
I think ObsessedNuker pointed out in one of the recent BoB threads but all your plans come down to relying on the British running like headless chickens before the glorious uber Aryan heroes...when your plan is reliant on the "lack of moral fibre" of the enemy then it is probably a bad plan...though you are far from the first to suffer from that error.

To be fair, plenty of victories are won when one side makes wrong decisions when panicked or confused. At one point, Mersa Matruh seems to have been an opportunity for the British to cut off and destroy a good chunk of the German forces, but orders to break out had already been issued.

Anyway, Wiking really wanted to know about subsequent operations, rather than the details of how to get there.
 

Deleted member 1487

You know I don't even need to point how much this statement is not true as you start on the job yourself:

So you rely on not one but two quite extensive PODs while ignoring that the British have a strong chance dare I say overwhelming probability of holding Alex even so?

I mean if the QE and the Valiant were to be 'sunk' then the RN has two ready made fortresses in the harbour of Alexandria that would make dismantling or refloating the scuttled hulks that would be the quick and dirty way to close the port even harder.
The POD of the Axis troops getting into position on time and attacking on time is 'an extensive and multiple' POD?

The sunken British BBs were floated and shipped out to the US for repairs by July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Valiant_%281914%29#World_War_II
Valiant went to South Africa and didn't return until 1943, QE went to the US for repairs; she left in June 1942 and didn't return until later, well after the POD.

I think ObsessedNuker pointed out in one of the recent BoB threads but all your plans come down to relying on the British running like headless chickens before the glorious uber Aryan heroes...when your plan is reliant on the "lack of moral fibre" of the enemy then it is probably a bad plan...though you are far from the first to suffer from that error.
Given that the entire point of the thread wasn't about 1st Alamein, it was about what the British would do if there was a Middle Eastern Front in 1942, I was curious about exploring strategy in that context, not getting into a pissing match with people that want to dismiss out of hand anything that they don't want to talk about.

Its not that unlikely things could come together that would disrupt the British ability to get defenses ready in time at Alamein and result in another defeat. Its in fact quite a bit different than the Germans somehow winning the BoB.

Also its not exactly unprecedented for the British to panic and retreat when they were in the power position. I mean Malaysia in 1942 is a prime example, plus the ridiculous numbers of defeats the British suffered in the Western Desert during 1941-42 due to terrible tactics, slipshod organization, and frayed nerves. They should have won Gazala and not lost Tobruk like they did, nor should they have lost Battleaxe in 1941. So its not unprecedented at all for them to screw the pooch in that theater.
 
Anyway, Wiking really wanted to know about subsequent operations, rather than the details of how to get there.

The problem is we want to explain how much of a difficult situation the Axis would be if they took Egypt and that means explaining why and the why is things like port demolitions and blockships and allied air power and having to fight numerous hard fights just to get to the frontiers of Palestine.

So even with handwaves turning losing fight after losing fight into victory you have an exhausted set of Axis formations on the end of a long and perilous supply chain being asked fight yet another battle that it turns out is not going to be a pushover.
 

Deleted member 1487

The problem is we want to explain how much of a difficult situation the Axis would be if they took Egypt and that means explaining why and the why is things like port demolitions and blockships and allied air power and having to fight numerous hard fights just to get to the frontiers of Palestine.

So even with handwaves turning losing fight after losing fight into victory you have an exhausted set of Axis formations on the end of a long and perilous supply chain being asked fight yet another battle that it turns out is not going to be a pushover.
Part of it was that if the Axis forces actually won at Alamein and took Alexandria due to the British panicking and bugging out (winning Alamein is the POD, the British freaking out is a butterfly), then the Egyptians, who were actually pretty anti-British at this point, are likely to start collaborating and rising up against the Brits, which unhinges their positions in Egypt. As it was the loss of Alexandria would reduce them to just bases in Cairo, which may be unusable due to Egyptian uprising, and bases in Palestine. Captured supplies in Alexandria will actually be quite huge and yes the Axis forces will have to take time to rest and work with the Egyptians to make their position stick. The Brits were planning on evacuating to Cyprus there naval forces and pulling back whatever air forces they could rescue too. At that point Alexandria is pretty much open to Axis shipping from Greece and the problem will only be bombing from Palestine. Axis forces taking time to rest after taking Alexandria, British forces pulling back to defend the Nile Delta, and potentially an Egyptian uprising make the entire situation pretty fluid and unfavorable to the British; I'm positing for the sake of argument that the situation unfolds in an anti-British manner so that there is Axis control of Egypt by August and a chance for a Middle East front then opens.
 
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