http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Union_Treaty
I know this idea has been kicked around before, but bear with me. Suppose the August coup doesn't happen or the plotters are unmasked early and beaten down on by Gorbachev. According to polls, a majority of the populace was for the preservation of the union in some form so no problem there, and therefore the New Union Treaty is signed and the Soviet Union is reformed into a confederal body known as the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics. It has a common foreign policy, defence, currency and fiscal/banking policy, but with strong autonomy for the constituent states.
The new USSR consists of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan and Azerbaijan. The less pro-Soviet/Russian SSRs Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania declare their independence. My specific question was how the formation of this new USSR would affect the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Afghanistan could become very different since the USSR won't like the Taliban. The communist government in Afghanistan lasted until 1992 without any help and actually performed better with Soviet aid for a while. I think the Soviets could at least provide artillery and air support (provided that their planes don't drop out of the sky due to maintenance issues

). Supposing that the Taliban still win and a sufficient dose of handwavium still leads to 9/11 or something like it, what will the USSR's role be, seeing their proximity and the economic recovery since 1991. And what of Iraq? Will the US remain in Cold War mode with a weakened but still kicking USSR and support Iraq to keep 'communism' out of the ME? With India friendly to Moscow, I could see Pakistan receiving more US support too(perhaps support for a military strongman's coup).
As for eastern Europe. How will those countries fare if a resurgent USSR tries to get its sphere of influence back in the late 1990s? I imagine the Baltic states will try to get into NATO asap. Georgia and Armenia are slightly screwed due to their location which doesn't allow for much NATO support except through Turkey. Poland will not welcome the Red Army back and do the same. I could see Czechoslovakia staying together for protection. The only country that I could see becoming nice to the USSR is Moldova which will get the same problems in Transnistria that it has today.
Any ideas/suggestions???