Middle East and eastern Europe with a different breakup of the USSR

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Union_Treaty

I know this idea has been kicked around before, but bear with me. Suppose the August coup doesn't happen or the plotters are unmasked early and beaten down on by Gorbachev. According to polls, a majority of the populace was for the preservation of the union in some form so no problem there, and therefore the New Union Treaty is signed and the Soviet Union is reformed into a confederal body known as the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics. It has a common foreign policy, defence, currency and fiscal/banking policy, but with strong autonomy for the constituent states.

The new USSR consists of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan and Azerbaijan. The less pro-Soviet/Russian SSRs Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania declare their independence. My specific question was how the formation of this new USSR would affect the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Afghanistan could become very different since the USSR won't like the Taliban. The communist government in Afghanistan lasted until 1992 without any help and actually performed better with Soviet aid for a while. I think the Soviets could at least provide artillery and air support (provided that their planes don't drop out of the sky due to maintenance issues:p). Supposing that the Taliban still win and a sufficient dose of handwavium still leads to 9/11 or something like it, what will the USSR's role be, seeing their proximity and the economic recovery since 1991. And what of Iraq? Will the US remain in Cold War mode with a weakened but still kicking USSR and support Iraq to keep 'communism' out of the ME? With India friendly to Moscow, I could see Pakistan receiving more US support too(perhaps support for a military strongman's coup).

As for eastern Europe. How will those countries fare if a resurgent USSR tries to get its sphere of influence back in the late 1990s? I imagine the Baltic states will try to get into NATO asap. Georgia and Armenia are slightly screwed due to their location which doesn't allow for much NATO support except through Turkey. Poland will not welcome the Red Army back and do the same. I could see Czechoslovakia staying together for protection. The only country that I could see becoming nice to the USSR is Moldova which will get the same problems in Transnistria that it has today.

Any ideas/suggestions???
 
I would like to say something,but with my veeery limited knowkledge,I would say a longer but less intense Cold War
 
No coup means no grubby deals done by Yeltsin and the other treasonous, thieving, power-hungry assholes who took over Ukraine Belarus to break up the union gain power and line their pockets by selling off state assets etc.

So millions of people who died due to the utter sicking mess caused by the U.S.S.R's dismemberment will live for a start. The SSR's wont crash Economically, through still facing hard times for a few years the U.S.S.R economy stabilizes and remains the third (or if things go really well second largest economy in the world). Oh and the goverment wont be a despotic banana republic, unlike the regimes most SSR's have now.

So yeah the U.S.S.R remaining mostly intact is a good thing for people living there and the world in general.
 
Probably a reduction in the amount of small arms on the black market. With huge knock on effects across the world. I know this thread is asking about E. Europe and the Middle East but there will be huge butterflies in places like Congo, Somalia and Rwanda. Possibly even Kashmir, Sri Lanka and Nepal as well.

No Chechnya.

Maybe no breakup of Yugoslavia. If Yugoslavia does break up than there will be a much more significant intervention by the USSR and the UN/NATO powers will have less of a free hand. Which could be bad to say the least.

That could all result in a much different UN. Perhaps the UN continues to mainly act as a forum to air out Cold war tensions.
 
Yugoslavia could indeed be interesting. They might stick together out of fear of ending up in Russia's sphere of influence. I wonder what people think about developments in the Middle East in such a TL.
 
How would such a union respond to say Armenia, given that Azerbaijan remains in the Union and Armenia does not?

Does this mean we would see no little hot wars at all? I would assume that we wouldn't
 
U.S.S.R economy stabilizes and remains the third (or if things go really well second largest economy in the world).
I read during the breakup -That the USSR civilian Ecomony was the Size of Hollands, Even if you double that for the Military economy --- Twice Holland is NOT 3rd largest in World.
 
I wonder what people think about developments in the Middle East in such a TL.

This USSR may continue to fund the Palestinian left. If they do, Palestinian Leftist factions such as PFLP and DFLP will play a much bigger role than they did IOTL's Intifada. Continued support from the USSR will also slow the political rise of Hamas. If the left is better funded, it can provide some of the food, education and other aid that Hamas did IOTL and will retain a larger political following.

Maybe a stronger Yemeni Socialist Party.

Who knows what this would do to Qaddafi :D

Also a stronger Cuba.
 
I read during the breakup -That the USSR civilian Ecomony was the Size of Hollands, Even if you double that for the Military economy --- Twice Holland is NOT 3rd largest in World.

A - Thats untrue.

B - Without Russia and the other SSR's going into a tailspin econony-wise due to Yeltsin's utter misrule. The U.S.S.R would recover from it's slump once more modarate reforms were made. It's econamy on that basis would still be 2nd or 3rd largist in the world.
 
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