alternatehistory.com

I'm a major Hashemite fanboy (grew up in Jordan, so no shock there), and the question of what would have happened if they hadn't been screwed over so mercilessly by the British and French governments (along with so many others) has always been a thought in my mind. With that in mind, I wanted to take a stab at this, and provide something of a possible timeline of sorts. Not to put it up for discussion, but to sort of look past it and discuss the potential of a post-WW1 united Arabia, and a far different Middle East.

Here's the timeline:

  • Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud's raid on Riyadh in 1901 is a complete failure, and he is captured and killed with his relatives and followers who accompanied him in the raid.
  • In the wake of this failure, Al Saud gradually loses it's influence and ability in the Arab Peninsula, as many of it's former allies are brought down in skirmishes by Al Rashid or are bought off by the Ottomans.
  • As a result the two primary powers in the Ottoman-ruled Peninsula are the mercentile Al-Rashid and the religious Al-Hashem, better known today as the Hashemites.
  • Arab nationalism in the Ottoman empire is slow to proliferate, initially starting with a demand for increased presence within the empire's offices, including Arabic as a second language and special rights for Arab citizenry. Attempts by Arab politicians for increased influence in the counter-coup of 1909 and the Congress of Paris in 1913 are failures, causing a significant radicalization towards independence for these would-be nationalist.
  • By and large however, the majority of the Arab peoples are divided by religious or tribal ties, though multiple groups are beginning to form in Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Jerusalem.
  • During the early years of World War 1, the British attempt to entice the Sharif Hussein bin Ali of the Hejaz to revolt against the Ottomans, hoping to create an Arab fifth column. Sharif Hussein agrees, in exchange for funding, support and training, and for the promise of a kingdom consisting of all Ottoman Arabs.
  • Negotiations on this are mixed, due to British, French, Jewish and Kurdish interests,and are continued on after the war. The Sykes-Picot agreement is not signed here, nor is the Balfour declaration.
  • Due to the lack of Al-Saud, the funds and weapons sent to them in WW1 (and never used against the Ottomans) are sent to Sharif Hussein.
  • Hashemite successes during the war are mixed, but provide a solid basis for a post-war Arabia. Hussein's son Faisal is able to sway many of the Ottoman Arab regiments to desert from the 4th and 6th Ottoman Armies, using his ties with members of the Al-Fatat and Al-Had societies. These men become the nucleus of the Sharifian Army, fighting alongside the Egyptian Expeditionary Force commanded by General Allenby. As well, many Bedouin irregulars are used for asymmetrical warfare, stymieing Ottoman abilities for much of the war.
  • During the war, Al-Rashid is defeated by Al-Hashem, though becoming a prominent part of post-war politics in Arabia.
  • The war ends in an Etente victory, with the Arabs on the winning side. With all in a victorious if weary mood, the Arab, British, French, Jewish and Kurdish get to negotiations.
  • The major sticking points on the Hashemite side are the losses of Alexandrietta, Lebanon, Mosul and Palestine to various divisions of governance, coupled with the French divide up the region into mandates. Acting as relatively neutral arbiters (and finding themselves at odds in a way with their old rivals-turned-friends the French), the British goverment enacts an agreement that pleases very few, but is considered acceptable.
    • The Jewish peoples are granted the right to statehood, being given the coastal lands of the Jerusalem Governate. Meanwhile, the inland territory is given to Sharif Hussein's envisioned Greater Arabia, while Jerusalem itself is held under British Mandate as a free city. Land in the Jewish defined regions is eligible to be bought out by the Jewish Commission for settlers, and by Hashemite agreement grants citizenship and migration rights to any thus disenfranchised Arab residents.​​
    • The French are given the whole of OTL Lebanon as a French Mandate, a decision with Hussein protests bitterly but accepts by his sons pressuring.​​
    • The Kurds meanwhile are given their own state, with lands containing Kurdish populations included from what in OTL would be Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. The Persians in particular are furious over this matter, but are unable to effect much change. The area of Mosul is given over to this new Kurdish state, with the exclusive oil rights given over to the British.​​
    • Finally, as relating to the Hashemites:
      • Though bordered in by Egypt, the Gulf emirates, Iran, Kurdistan, Lebanon and Turkey, the Hashemites assume control of the modern day Middle East.​​
      • Damascus is named the new capital of this Arab state, though Baghdad quickly becomes the second city.​​
      • Portioning out responsibilities to his sons, his eldest son Ali is named Emir of Hejaz under him, given the responsibilities of the Peninsula. His second son Abdullah is named Emir of Nejd, his third son Faisal as Emir of Baghdad, and his fourth son Zeid as Emir of Aleppo.​​
      • In order to curb the greater French desires for lands, Sharif Hussein agrees to several trade agreements that place both the British and French as most favoured nations over any other trading partner, and agrees to British drilling rights in relation to oil in Iraq (but not anywhere else). ​​
      • Sharif Hussein also agrees to respect the independence of the Gulf emirates, as well as the nascent kingdom of Yemen, whose royal family also claims relation to the Prophet (PBUH).​​
      • Initially self-titled as King of the Arabs (but more professionally described as King of Arabia), Sharif Hussein claims in 1924 the defunct Caliphate title after the abdication of the last Ottoman caliph, recieving support from Mehmed IV (the final Ottoman sultan and penultimate caliph). His declaration is ill-received outside of Arabia, particularly amongst the Egyptian and Gulf Arabs.​​
      ​​
With all this in mind as a vaguely reasonable/logical timeline, let's discuss this Hashemite Arabia post-1925.

We're talking about a very large, very primitive, very decentralized, natively-run and relatively independent country. It's sitting on a lot of liquid and mineral wealth, has revanchist claims to certain territories (Lebanon, Gulf, Jerusalem), claims religious authority (Caliphate) and is being run by a relatively moderate royal family. It has "favored nation" trading ties with the British and the French, and something of a political rivalry with the Egyptian state in regards to leadership of the Arab nationalist movement. It's in the midst of the swinging twenties, it's entering the Great Depression with a heavily agrarian/rural population exposed to the modern world market system, and it's not quite got a blood-feud with Israel from the get-go.

So what do you guys think? How would this version of the middle east go? More conflict? Less? What's the implications of a free Kurdistan from the get-go? Less acrimony to the would-be colonials? Islam's effects from the downsizing and sidestepping of Wahabi Islam, and the money that would go into exporting that brand of idealogy internationally?
Top