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ABWEHR
Militarishe Nachrichtendienstliche Wertschätzung und Empfehlungen
(Military Intelligence Appreciation & Recommendations)
die Meisten Geheimnis​
Hintergrund(Background)...
On 1 Apr., Rashid Ali of Iraq, along with top officers known as the "Golden Square", conducted a coup d'état vs pro-British regent Prince 'Abd al-Ilah, who fled to Amman, Jordan. Rashid Ali did not overthrow the monarchy & has named a new regent to King Faisal II, who is a child. The leaders of Ali's "National Defence Gov't." have arrested many pro-British citizens & politicians, and the new gov't. has explained its policy to the German Min. of Foreign Affairs as refusing further concessions to the UK, to expel pro-British politicians, & to improve relations with Italy & Germany.


On 17 Apr. the National Defence Gov't. asked Germany for military assistance in the event of war vs the UK. Under the Anglo-Iraqi Treay of 1930 the UK has the right to establish & use military bases in Iraq and the right to the unrestricted passage of Brit. troops thru Iraq. The stated Iraqi policies indicate a clear intention to violate those treaty provisions at some point, which will undoubtedly lead to a Brit. military attempt to enforce them. The armed forces of Iraq are inadequate to defend the country vs the UK.


The fall of Iraq to Brit. aggression would have profound consequences with regard to the Vichy French colonies of Syria & Lebanon, to the posture of Turkey & Iran, & possibly to the campaign in North Afrika. Although under the terms of its armistice with Germany Vichy France is obligated to defend its territories, & will probably fight, it is unlikely to do so with sufficient vigor to defend them vs the UK. We therefore face a situation in which Iraq, Iran, Syria, & Lebanon are presently all pro-Axis, & Turkey is delaying its decision on whether or not to enter the war as an Axis partner-- but within a matter of weeks, if the UK invades Iraq, this entire situation could reverse itself. Iraq, Syria, & Lebanon could all be occupied by Brit. troops, while Iran & Turkey could find themselves forces to adopt more neutral postures.


Furthermore, a pro-Axis gov't. in Iraq would have profound effects on the supply of oil to the UK via the Persian Gulf, the policies of the Iranian & Turkish gov'ts., as well as on Brit. deployments in Egypt & possibly India, which might favorably influence the campaign in North Afrika.


The decision on whether & how much aid to provide Iraq is therefore very much an all-or-nothing proposition. Sufficient aid will have profound favorable consequences in the theatre. Inadequate aid will most likely result in the complete loss of all German influence thruout the theatre, from Turkey to the Indian Ocean & from India to Egypt.


Krafte(Forces)...
The Royal Iraqi Army is composed of approximately 60,000 men, most of whom serve in 4 infantry divs. & 1 motorized bde. The 2nd Div. is stationed in Kirkuk in the N. & the 4th Div. is in Al Diwaniyah between Baghdad & Basra. The 1st & 3rd Divs. & the Indep. Mech. Bde. are all stationed near Baghdad. Also based near Baghdad are 2 bns. of motor. infantry, a light tank co., an armoured car co., a motor. MG co., & a motor. artil. bde.


UK forces presently in Iraq incl. the RAF No. 1 Armd. Car Co. & 6 companies of Assyrian levies.

In neighboring Palestine there is the 1st Cavalry Div., incl. the 4th, 5th, & 6th Cavalry Bdes.

Also in the region are :
the 1st Bn. of the Essex Rgt., RAF No. 2 Armd. Car Co., a battery of 25-pdr. howitzers from the 60th Field Regiment, Royal Artillery, an anti-tank battery,

elements of the Arab Legion, consisting of 3 motorized bns. (The Arab Legion isn't part of the Brit. Army, but is the regular Army of Transjordan.); &

the 21st & 25th Bdes. of the 7th Australian Div. are training in Palestine along with the 5th Indian Inf. Bde. of the 4th Indian Div. & might be available for an operation in Iraq, & the 1st &/or the 2d so-called "Free French" Bdes. may also be available.


On 18 Apr. the 20th Indian Inf. Bde. (10th Indian Inf. Div.) landed at Basra. German intel has identified component units incl. the 2d Bn./8th Gurkha Rifles, 2d Bn./7th Gurkha Rifles, & the 3d Bn./11th Sikh Rgt. Other forces incl. the 3d Field Rgt,. Royal Artillery, & the 1st Bn. King's Own Royal Regiment, flown in from Karachi in India. Elements of the 10th Indian Inf. Div. are reported to be supporting this deployment (21st & 25th Indian Inf. Bdes.).


The 8th Indian Inf. Div. (17th, 18th, & 19th Indian Inf. Bdes.) & 2d Indian Armd. Bde. are also believed to be supporting this deployment.


Although Iraq does possess an air force, its pilot training is considered poor & the Brit. aircraft in the theatre will certainly confer Brit. air superiority.


Absichten(Intentions)...
The landing of the Brit. 20th Indian Inf. Bde. & associated units at Basra clearly indicates UK intentions towards Iraq. With the Brit. 1st Cavalry Div., the rest of the Brit. 10th Indian Inf. Div., & associated other units ready to invade, & the possibility of reinforcement by the Brit. 8th Indian & 7th Australian Divs. & the 2d Indian Armd. Bde., once overt hostilities begin Iraq is unlikely to survive for more than a few weeks. Our present experience in Greece indicates that when the UK decides to act in such situations, they can move with rapidity, so that the time to intervene-- if intervention is considered to be politically desirable-- is now.


If this proposal is approved, then we must have German forces in position to defend against the invasion before it happens, or else Iraq is likely to collapse too quickly & it will be too late.


Schlussfolgerungen(Conclusions)...
Today, in the 2d half of Apr. 1941, Germany is heavily committed to the campaign to conquer both Greece & Yugoslavia, to the campaign in North Afrika & the siege of Tobruq, & plans are already underway to conquer Crete in May, & to invade the USSR in June. None of these preliminary & peripheral operations can be permitted to interfere with Operation Barbarossa.

However, it would surely be criminal folly to permit entire nations to fall to the UK, when a few German divisions committed now could drive the British back, compromise their plans on 2 continents, secure the entire region for our flag, benefit our campaign in North Afrika, & possibly lead in the near term to Turkish & Iranian declarations of war, opening up a southern front against the USSR. Thus to aid Iraq now would actually contribute in a very meaningful way to the ultimate success of Barbarossa.


-- more to follow --
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