Michael II

Michael the younger brother of Czar Nicholas II, does accept that his brother nominated him as his successor. He proclaims himself Czar. He knows the mood of the people and promises to end the war. He instructs his envoys in Sweden to speak with their German counterparts to obtain an armistace. Surprisingly the Germans agree. The Western Allies are furious. Michael agrees to surrender The Kingdom of Poland (Confess Poland) to the German Empire. Bessarabia is surrendered to Austria-Hungary. The Ottoman Empire has its territory in the Caucasus mountains returned.
 

Deleted member 94680

Michael the younger brother of Czar Nicholas II, does accept that his brother nominated him as his successor. He proclaims himself Czar. He knows the mood of the people and promises to end the war. He instructs his envoys in Sweden to speak with their German counterparts to obtain an armistace. Surprisingly the Germans agree. The Western Allies are furious. Michael agrees to surrender The Kingdom of Poland (Confess Poland) to the German Empire. Bessarabia is surrendered to Austria-Hungary. The Ottoman Empire has its territory in the Caucasus mountains returned.

Its 'Congress Poland'.

The Austrians were nowhere near Bessarabia in March 1917, why do they get it? What about the Bulgarians? I'd have thought the Austrians would be more interested in getting Galicia back, or maybe Volhynia or somewhere closer to their borders.
 
Ooops, finger slipped as I was typing Congess Poland. . Romania is partitioned between Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria. All land south of the Danube to Bulgaria, north Austrian. Albania, Montenegro and Serbia goes to Bulgaria. Let them deal with the Serbs is the idea. Bulgars and Serbs are Orthodox Christians, the Bosnians and Croats were not to upset. Germans start to shift forces to the Western Front, Austro-Hungarians the Italian Front.

Thought about Congress Poland going to the Austro-Hungarians but after so many dead the Germans would want something. In the same light Albania should go to the Ottomans but detached provinces a bad idea.
 
Germany would win in late 1917

Only if this stops the US entering the war in April 1917. Otherwise the British and French would stand on the defensive in 1917-18 ready to crush the Central powers with non war weary American manpower in 1919. Further without a truly defeated Russia large forces would need to be stationed in the east to garrison the new acquisitions to the Central Powers landmass and to deter the Russians renewing the war in the east when they have regained their balance by crushing/coming to terms with their internal issues.
 
Yeah, in that case there's not much reason why Russia wouldn't pull a Romania and re-enter the war, after it recovers a bit and it becomes convenient to do so.
(Assuming no one has overthrown Michael in the meantime - but even if they have, really.)
 

Deleted member 94680

Ooops, finger slipped as I was typing Congess Poland. . Romania is partitioned between Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria. All land south of the Danube to Bulgaria, north Austrian. Albania, Montenegro and Serbia goes to Bulgaria. Let them deal with the Serbs is the idea. Bulgars and Serbs are Orthodox Christians, the Bosnians and Croats were not to upset. Germans start to shift forces to the Western Front, Austro-Hungarians the Italian Front.

Thought about Congress Poland going to the Austro-Hungarians but after so many dead the Germans would want something. In the same light Albania should go to the Ottomans but detached provinces a bad idea.

Fair enough, that makes a bit more sense.

OTL the CP Kingdom of Poland was split between A-H and Germany in two administrate zones. Anyway, the Germans could be compensated more directly with their United Baltic Duchy plan and territories around the north of Russia.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Michael the younger brother of Czar Nicholas II, does accept that his brother nominated him as his successor. He proclaims himself Czar. He knows the mood of the people and promises to end the war. He instructs his envoys in Sweden to speak with their German counterparts to obtain an armistace. Surprisingly the Germans agree. The Western Allies are furious. Michael agrees to surrender The Kingdom of Poland (Confess Poland) to the German Empire. Bessarabia is surrendered to Austria-Hungary. The Ottoman Empire has its territory in the Caucasus mountains returned.
I assume you think about the 'February Revolution'.

Then Michael has to - somehow - overcome the provisional goverments aims to continue the war at the ententes side WITH keeping the already negotiated russian gains of the Dardanelles, the Bosporus and the Caicasus after victory. ... No easy task. The provisional goverment decided together with the Petrograd Soviet in a common declaration to keep on with the war or at least not to conclude a separate peace with the CP.
Maybe he ... comes to some terms with the Petrograd Soviet ? ... as kind of a "peoples Tsar ? ... like 'Roi citoyen' Louis-Philippe in France ?
A public statement, that he wants to end the war ASAP, as long as it doesn't cost ethnical/majority russian country could help then.


However. At that moment the germans haven't taken Riga yet and the russians still occupy the Bukowina and parts of eastern Galicia - and btw the CP forces are occupying the Danube-delta (wee part of Bessarabia already ;-)).
And the germans would most likely be VERY happy to comply to an armistice with Russia dropping out of the war, to redirect theit forces against the western entente-parts as early as possible.

Therefore IMO german demands wouldn't extend too far into the Baltics, Lithunia, maybe with the Riga-region and including the Vilnius-region, maybe the estonian isles too as a 'Baltic dutchy' of some kind, german controlled ofc.
Congress-Poland with all of galicia as a "independant" Kingdom with the "Austro-polish" solution, transforming A-H into a trialist A-H-P empire. under heavy control of germany esp. economically.
Romania might be restored - without all of the Dobruscha, ceased to Bulgaria and also tightly bound to the CP, maybe with a new King of habsburgian or hohenzollerian origin (some side-line), and some adjustments on its hungarian border.
Serbia will be reduced to the size of the former Principality of Serbia - without the Kosovo - as an nominally independent state as well, a concession to the russians.
Bulgaria gets as said all of the Dobrusch and former serbian Macedonia.
The Ottomans get their pre-war borders in the Caucasus, maybe the region around Batumi as well. Being still heavily under pressure by the Brits they would IMO comply to this "limited" gains there. However, a russian withdrawel from persian Azerbaidjan might give them also some ... further outlook ;-) in the region.
As the fighting on the macedonian front is still going on, there isn't much more to be said about Greece, Bulgaria and the Ottomans there at this point.

That's how a peace of ... Pinsk could look about under these circumstances.
 
Karl as Emperor-King explains his plans for reforming the Empire to the Germans and asks for further assistance. He asks for two things. As the injured party his country wants compensation. He would like Congress Poland. He also wants further assistance against the Italians. Italy is weaker than France and Britain and would be easier to knock out of the war. They also betrayed their alliance partners. So removing them would be justified and then France can be taken care of. His plans for the Empire would be a federation. The Austrian Empire would consist of the following;
The Kingdom of Austria, the historic lands from the 13th century
The Kingdom of Bohemia, Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia
The Kingdom of Croatia, Bosnia and Croatia
The Kingdom of Hungary, Bessarabia, Hungary and Romania
The Kingdom of Poland, Galacia and Poland
The Empire which is largely agrarian would be in a free trade zone with the German Empire. Germany would end unrestricted submarine warfare before the Americans get involved.
 
The Germans continue their withdrawal to the Hindenburg Line. The British and the French launch the campaigns resulting in the battle of Arras and the second battle of the Aisne and the third battle of Champagne before the Germans can bring reinforcements from the Eastern Front. Despite some British advances the French take heavy losses leading to mutinies in the French armies. The Austro-Hungarian offense on the Italian front of 12 divisions and reinforced with 9 German divisions collapses the Italians with gains of 10 miles on the first day. Inside of a week Venice is captured leading to a morale collapse by the Italians.
 
With their success the Austro-Hungarians declare their goal of liberating the Pope. Cavalry forces are sent in two directions. Westward toward Milan and Southwestward toward Florence.
 
With the collapse of the Italians, the British and French start to send some divisions to Italy. With the dismal failure of the French offensive mutanies break out in the French army. News about the plan to restore the Pope causes more unrest.
 
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