Michael Collins survives the ambush

Michaels Collins was killed in an ambush at Beal Na Blath in 1922. Had he not stopped to fight back at the sinpers he would probably have survived. What if he hadn't challenged the ambushers and had survived?

Eamonn De Valera renetered the Dail in 1927 to form an effective opposition with Fianna Fail and came to power in 1932 with a monority government had Collins been still alive and in government before the election would he have listen to O'Duffy and supported a coup?
 
Michaels Collins was killed in an ambush at Beal Na Blath in 1922. Had he not stopped to fight back at the sinpers he would probably have survived. What if he hadn't challenged the ambushers and had survived?

Eamonn De Valera renetered the Dail in 1927 to form an effective opposition with Fianna Fail and came to power in 1932 with a monority government had Collins been still alive and in government before the election would he have listen to O'Duffy and supported a coup?

To be honest Andrew given 10 years of Collins being alive during the foundation of the state would most likely end up with a completely different Ireland in 1932 so I wouldn't assume that otl events would play out the same.

I think Collins wouldn't have supported a coup but at the same time I don't think he would have allowed CnaG have weakened like they did during that decade in terms of party infrastructure.
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
Almost anything you wish depending on your prejudices. ;)

Here's mine;

Collins survives, although wounded (and livid). Once recovered he brutally supresses the Anti-Treaty forces.
Collins reputation is tarnished amongst revisionist historians by the tactics and policies pursued.
Dev's body is never found.

A Collins-led Free State holds a firmer line in the Boundary Commission negotiations, successfully marrying pragmatism and principle.
Substantial territorial adjustments are highly unlikely as they would only cement the division of the Island.
Instead an 'Tri-Partite Forum' works to address the grievances of communities that feel themselves to be in 'The Wrong Country'.

As a result Northern Ireland and the Free State are less 'Confessional' and inwardly looking triumphalist.
Cross-border and Anglo-Irish co-operation are, of necessity, greater.
The Trade War is avoided, ameliorating the economic distresses of the '30s.

Better relationships lead to the Free State supporting the WAllies in the Second World War.
The Treaty Ports are available for RN use, while Southern Volunteers have an honoured place in the cultural memory of the State.

Southern cities suffer from a number of raids, with many remembering the sterling efforts of the Belfast Fire Brigade to tackle the aftermath of the Dublin Blitz.

Ireland's military modernises and expands, while the island itself plays host to vast numbers of American troops later in the war.

Post War, the Free State benefits from the Marshall Plan, rebuilding its infrastructure and economy.

Some North/South antagonisms remain but the poison has been largely drawn from the wounds of history.

The Free State's major pre-occupation is whether the future lies within the Commonwealth or as part of the emerging European Community.
Ireland's close ties with Britain and the US are seen by many as the reason for the rejection of Membership application in the '60s.

The main political divide is between those who want to 'Cut the Apron Strings', declare a Republic and focus on Europe and those who want to 'Build A Modern Ireland', continue Tri-Partite co-operation and believe 'The Republic' can only come when it consensually embraces the whole Island.

Falkenburg
 
Can I just say ditto to Falkenburg's idea?

With most martyred pragmatists pushing a perceived better way, it's easy to say if Collins lived, peace, unicorns, and rainbows ensue.
Unfortunately, I'm with Andrew Hudson on him brooming the radicals out of power in a quick and dirty campaign to establish a central power that could agree to and enforce a peace with the UK.
De Valera did not want to be a minority shouting on a soapbox in the corner as he would be if Collins lived.
Collins wouldn't have been targeted if a lot of folks didn't have a lot to lose by him living. There's a lot of questions as to the nature of Irish society if he lived. Would he be the fascist strongman De Valera was just with a different motivation?

I'm not sure. Finding some #$%& way to butterfly De Valera being more than a cheerleader and ace fundraiser for Irish independence is tough. I'm not one of his biggest fans. IMO he took the Republic down several primrose paths to perdition, encouraging the worst aspects of Irish society and forgoing a lot of social and economic progress from 1930-1990.
YYMDV from me b/c I'm an American with a casual knowledge at best of Irish revolutionary and republican politics.
 
Almost anything you wish depending on your prejudices. ;)

Here's mine;

Collins survives, although wounded (and livid). Once recovered he brutally supresses the Anti-Treaty forces.
Collins reputation is tarnished amongst revisionist historians by the tactics and policies pursued.
Dev's body is never found.

A Collins-led Free State holds a firmer line in the Boundary Commission negotiations, successfully marrying pragmatism and principle.
Substantial territorial adjustments are highly unlikely as they would only cement the division of the Island.
Instead an 'Tri-Partite Forum' works to address the grievances of communities that feel themselves to be in 'The Wrong Country'.

As a result Northern Ireland and the Free State are less 'Confessional' and inwardly looking triumphalist.
Cross-border and Anglo-Irish co-operation are, of necessity, greater.
The Trade War is avoided, ameliorating the economic distresses of the '30s.

Better relationships lead to the Free State supporting the WAllies in the Second World War.
The Treaty Ports are available for RN use, while Southern Volunteers have an honoured place in the cultural memory of the State.

Southern cities suffer from a number of raids, with many remembering the sterling efforts of the Belfast Fire Brigade to tackle the aftermath of the Dublin Blitz.

Ireland's military modernises and expands, while the island itself plays host to vast numbers of American troops later in the war.

Post War, the Free State benefits from the Marshall Plan, rebuilding its infrastructure and economy.

Some North/South antagonisms remain but the poison has been largely drawn from the wounds of history.

The Free State's major pre-occupation is whether the future lies within the Commonwealth or as part of the emerging European Community.
Ireland's close ties with Britain and the US are seen by many as the reason for the rejection of Membership application in the '60s.

The main political divide is between those who want to 'Cut the Apron Strings', declare a Republic and focus on Europe and those who want to 'Build A Modern Ireland', continue Tri-Partite co-operation and believe 'The Republic' can only come when it consensually embraces the whole Island.

Falkenburg

Can I just say ditto to Falkenburg's idea?

With most martyred pragmatists pushing a perceived better way, it's easy to say if Collins lived, peace, unicorns, and rainbows ensue.
Unfortunately, I'm with Andrew Hudson on him brooming the radicals out of power in a quick and dirty campaign to establish a central power that could agree to and enforce a peace with the UK.
De Valera did not want to be a minority shouting on a soapbox in the corner as he would be if Collins lived.
Collins wouldn't have been targeted if a lot of folks didn't have a lot to lose by him living. There's a lot of questions as to the nature of Irish society if he lived. Would he be the fascist strongman De Valera was just with a different motivation?

I'm not sure. Finding some #$%& way to butterfly De Valera being more than a cheerleader and ace fundraiser for Irish independence is tough. I'm not one of his biggest fans. IMO he took the Republic down several primrose paths to perdition, encouraging the worst aspects of Irish society and forgoing a lot of social and economic progress from 1930-1990.
YYMDV from me b/c I'm an American with a casual knowledge at best of Irish revolutionary and republican politics.

There was a tl on changing times that went along that sort of way, with Dev being injured in the Mills during the Rising and never full recovering. Collins instead becomes the dominate force in politics. He goes international with Ireland instead of the isolation that Dev went, Ireland joined the Allies in 40 in exchange for 2 of the 6 counties. Ireland is much more involved internationally across the range of issues

There was an interesting What if radio program on RTE from an Irish Historian that covered this for half an hour. They raised the point of things like Collins not having as conservative Ministry of Finance/Central Bank for Ireland, or something like the Swiss model of defence forces.

He also supported some attempts to continue support of the Republican elements in the North so who knows how that plays out

My main point is that even if the 2 survive through the Civil war the fact is that CnaG would be a completely different animal than what faced Dev and FF in 32. One of the comments on that show was about how much energy he had around the Cabinet table, I don't see him allowing or missing FF building up the Cummna in the Free State without countering it by building up the CnaG party infrastructure as well.

But yes Falkenburg's suggest would be an attractive one to write.(must resist:D)
 
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