Mexico without French intervention

The basic idea is this: What would the future of Mexico look like if they was never a French invasion, and no Second Mexican Empire? No Maximilian I? None of that happen?

What does the fate and times of Mexico look now in this ATL?
 
  • Why would it be any different from OTL. Max, as much as I admire him as a somewhat Liberal Hapsburg, was a blip in Mexico. There is no reason to believe that Juarez would not eventually win the liberal vs conservative civil war and that in the long run Diaz would not emerge to create his dictatorship, and so forth. I do believe in alternate history and butterflies but really Mad Max and Madder Carlota had little or no impact on the long term development of Mexico. The major impact of no Maximillian is no Cinco de Mayo and therefore many fewer hungover gringos on the Sixth of May. Viva Los Estados Unidos de Mexico.
 
I'd agree.

No Second French Intervention is more likely to affect the rest of the world than Mexico itself. You get more changes with a surviving or just longer lasting Second Empire, not without. Hmm, well, maybe, Díaz might try to rebel earlier than OTL, but still...

  • Why would it be any different from OTL. Max, as much as I admire him as a somewhat Liberal Hapsburg, was a blip in Mexico. There is no reason to believe that Juarez would not eventually win the liberal vs conservative civil war and that in the long run Diaz would not emerge to create his dictatorship, and so forth. I do believe in alternate history and butterflies but really Mad Max and Madder Carlota had little or no impact on the long term development of Mexico. The major impact of no Maximillian is no Cinco de Mayo and therefore many fewer hungover gringos on the Sixth of May. Viva Los Estados Unidos de Mexico.

Actually, the civil war had already ended. The Second French Intervention were their second chance (as good as it did considering Max), but without one, it's unlikely they would rise again.
 
  • Why would it be any different from OTL. Max, as much as I admire him as a somewhat Liberal Hapsburg, was a blip in Mexico. There is no reason to believe that Juarez would not eventually win the liberal vs conservative civil war and that in the long run Diaz would not emerge to create his dictatorship, and so forth. I do believe in alternate history and butterflies but really Mad Max and Madder Carlota had little or no impact on the long term development of Mexico. The major impact of no Maximillian is no Cinco de Mayo and therefore many fewer hungover gringos on the Sixth of May. Viva Los Estados Unidos de Mexico.

I'd agree.

No Second French Intervention is more likely to affect the rest of the world than Mexico itself. You get more changes with a surviving or just longer lasting Second Empire, not without. Hmm, well, maybe, Díaz might try to rebel earlier than OTL, but still...



Actually, the civil war had already ended. The Second French Intervention were their second chance (as good as it did considering Max), but without one, it's unlikely they would rise again.

All right. The bigger events would be on the rest of the world, but I was wondering if Mexico does better with the French Intervention, and all the fighting.
 
All right. The bigger events would be on the rest of the world, but I was wondering if Mexico does better with the French Intervention, and all the fighting.

... you say that as though Mexico wasent already in deep civil strife and financial problems prior to the French intervention. The Conservatives aren't going to go away just because they've been (temporarily, in their eyes) driven from power.

In fact, I'd argue Maximilian not getting into power would drag out Mexico's ideological struggles than they did in our timeline. He was a relatively liberal monarch; far more liberal than the Church and monarchists in Mexico were looking for, whos nature widened divides within the conservative faction between its moderates and hardliners, as well as legitimizing Juarez as a defender of Mexican liberty (taking the edge off the radical nature of his reforms) and de-legitimizing the conservatives by associating them with a debt-collecting, rapacious forgien army. ITTL, the opposition can still be seen as a victim and operate as gurellias to keep Mexico's simmering state of civil war going.
 

raharris1973

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Part of France's rationalization for getting involved was intervening was the only way to limit Yankee expansion. Could this lead somehow lead to American expansion into Mexico? Of course the US was rather busy for about five years.
 

raharris1973

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maybe an alternative activity for France at this time could be them launching a follow up campaign to take over Annam and Tonkin entirely in the 1860s instead of waiting till the 1880s as in OTL.

or accelerate North African colonialism by seizing Tunis in the 60s. the could do it while everybody was paying attention to the revolt in Russian Poland, uf they are willing to have a little war with the Ottomans over it.
 
French intervention United the nation of Mexico in a way few other things could. The infighting of the Santa Ana Era might continue with the Yucatan, Frontier provinces, and perhaps even Durango and Sinaola becoming American satellites (maybe even states?) by 1900. There would be little to stop a much more direct foray into Central America at that point - by 1870 Mexico regained control over (most of?) a weakened Guatemala only to lose it again soon after. What would stop the Yan quis from trying to take everything all the way down to Darien over the next few decades? That might result in several States in the Caribbean as well, including Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, maybe Cuba too? In addition the fate of Maximillian would be a positive to consider, especially as other kingdoms and offices were eyeing him. Maybe he ends up in Greece or the Netherlands?
 
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