Mexico wins the Mexican american war

what will happen if, old rough and read's risky tactics finnaly backfire, as well as disease and terrain taking an even worse toll and a better defense of mexico city, and the Mexicans win the war, what will happen?
 
what will happen if, old rough and read's risky tactics finnaly backfire, as well as disease and terrain taking an even worse toll and a better defense of mexico city, and the Mexicans win the war, what will happen?

They replace him with another general and the war continues. Mexico can do a little bit better in the war but not win. Their best chances are to simply survive until Polk's term ends.
However once the war has started most of that territory will end up in US hands no matter what happens. At the most, and this is almost ASB, Mexico might get everything south of Monterrey bay up to the Rio Grande. Who ever replaces Polk would have to be very lenient on Mexico.
Nevertheless Mexico would still be bankrupted, torn apart internally, and suffering coup after coup after coup. The war of Reforma is ultimately going to happen to stop the church from amassing power.
In the future the next democratic President might try to pull a Texas with the remainder of California as gold in Northern California has already been discovered. Mexico thus looses more territory.

If the terms are less lenient Mexico looses all of the territory it lost in OTL, but it might be allowed to keep San Diego and maybe the rest of Southern California up to the Sierra Nevada. This would then be bought by the US in a Gadsen Purchase style scenario.
 
They replace him with another general and the war continues. Mexico can do a little bit better in the war but not win. Their best chances are to simply survive until Polk's term ends.
However once the war has started most of that territory will end up in US hands no matter what happens. At the most, and this is almost ASB, Mexico might get everything south of Monterrey bay up to the Rio Grande. Who ever replaces Polk would have to be very lenient on Mexico.
Nevertheless Mexico would still be bankrupted, torn apart internally, and suffering coup after coup after coup. The war of Reforma is ultimately going to happen to stop the church from amassing power.
In the future the next democratic President might try to pull a Texas with the remainder of California as gold in Northern California has already been discovered. Mexico thus looses more territory.

If the terms are less lenient Mexico looses all of the territory it lost in OTL, but it might be allowed to keep San Diego and maybe the rest of Southern California up to the Sierra Nevada. This would then be bought by the US in a Gadsen Purchase style scenario.

I pretty much agree. Even if the US invasion of Central Mexico was soundly defeated, the US (or local norteamericanos) would have siezed all of the contested Texas border areas north and east of the Rio Grande, California, and most of what became Colorado, Utah, and Nevada. It would be far more difficult for Mexico to reconquer these areas in a protracted conflict than defeat an invading US army outside Mexico City. It is possible that a somewhat different US-Mexico border might be negotiated - one somewhat more favorable to Mexico. Perhaps Mexico retains all or most of New Mexico and Arizona west of the Rio Grande and East of the Colorado. This is a natural border that retain Mexican authority in heavily hispanic areas and yet gives the US what it wanted - expansion to the Pacific coast. The point is also well made that Mexico might be better off continuing the fight until Polk's term ends. The Mexican War was not all that popular and they might get better terms from a new administration eager to end the war
 
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