Mexico vs The Confederate states.

  • Thread starter Deleted member 67076
  • Start date

bguy

Donor
The US has come-back power, but lie pretty low for the next decade while they rebuild. By the time they're ready for round two the Mexican-Confederate War is coming to a close with Mexico occupying much of the overconfident CSA aggressors, although victory is nowhere near assured for them until the US entry.

Mexico could not even subdue the bankrupt, barely populated Republic of Texas. There's absolutely no way they could end up occupying much of the CSA. About the best Mexico could realistically hope for from a victorious war against the CSA would be to get the border moved back to the Nueces. And frankly it's doubtful they would want anything more than that anyway because occupying Anglo majority areas would get Mexico nothing but endless guerilla war.
 
Mexico could not even subdue the bankrupt, barely populated Republic of Texas. There's absolutely no way they could end up occupying much of the CSA. About the best Mexico could realistically hope for from a victorious war against the CSA would be to get the border moved back to the Nueces. And frankly it's doubtful they would want anything more than that anyway because occupying Anglo majority areas would get Mexico nothing but endless guerilla war.

Agreed, as much as I despise the CSA it was tougher than Mexico.
 
My knowledge of Mexican history is somewhat shoddy, but is there any chance they (the Republican and Imperial forces) could unite temporarily to fight off the CSA a la the Kuomintang and the CCP? Not saying they would win, or even really work together, but is the idea plausible?
 
The very worst case scenario I could possibly see is that the CSA gets all 11 of the original states + Kentucky and that would take a great deal of doing.

The most Europe would do for the CSA is to break the blockade. Neither Palmerston nor Napoleon were stupid enough to send troops. Even the most gung-ho Pro-CSA British MPs denied they were out and out willing to go to war with the US over the CSA. Even in 1860 the US wasn't Zanzabar, a full fledged war would be bloody and expensive.

Well, this then. European powers break the blockade and recognize the legitimacy of the CSA, while a compromise is found in Mexico. The U.S. loses 12 states, a President and Seward, as well as losing effective control of NM and AZ via Mexican immigrant expansion, perhaps by extreme Mexican Republicans who can't handle the compromise (California is more secure). They still nominally hold one or both of these territories, but cannot effectively execute direct control.

From a military, land, and political standpoint, the US is humiliated and crippled by grief, but increased industrialization ensures they will live to fight another day, hopefully in the next decade.

Meanwhile, the CSA is feeling strong. Moves are made to repair the damage and to industrialize, while agreements with Europe ensure they will have backing via trade as long as they gradually do away with slavery.

Maximilian and Juarez begin slowly to work together effectively. Max by ensuring European trade support and by organizing an industrialization program designed to craft a navy (Max was obsessed with the Navy...) and Juarez by unifying the people of Mexico, reforming the government, and establishing himself as an effective leader.

Mexico begins to kickstart the process of spreading its influence throughout Central America and the Caribbean through peaceful and mostly economic means, but CSA is beginning to do the same thing in the Caribbean and the two slowly beging to see one another as the enemy.

Fast forward roughly a decade:

The US is strengthening relations with the UK, Prussia, and Russia, while Mexico is still being courted by Austria and France.

The CSA, although by no means a weakling is struggling to find its niche in the forming alliances. It is uncomfortable with Mexico who has the mutual ally of France, is on excellent trade relations with the UK who is growing a relationship with the CSA's latent enemy, the US, and its best relations are with Spain who it is working with to trade in the Caribbean. Mexico meanwhile experiences an influx of American and European whites, escaped slaves from the CSA, as well as a significant minority of Asian railroad workers and silver miners.

Max's navy is not all powerful, but the outpouring of Mexican silver and to a lesser degree coal is funding a healthy economy and a growing naval power. Although the CSA is transitioning slowly but surely from agrarian to industrial power, it finds itself in a three way arms race between itself, Mexico, and the US. Meanwhile, Mexican and US relations are strained because of the massive influx of Mexican immigrants into unsecured US territory. They are not allies.

The CSA, feeling cocky, decides to embrace the US's previous doctrine of denying European monarchies in North America and relations rapidly deteriorate between the two infant powers. It comes to a head when a Confederate ship perhaps accidentally destroys a Mexican ship in the Caribbean, a ship filled with civilians. The CSA is slightly too late to apologize and rather insincere about it and Mexicans are outraged.

Immigrants on both sides of the border are causing trouble. Lynchings and banditry flood both sides from both sides and diplomatic relations are rapidly becoming unsalvageable. Troops are sent to border territories just in case.

When a Confederate warship sinks a Mexican vessel it assumed was antagonizing it near New Orleans, Mexican troops jump the gun and cross the border. The CSA declares war and the Mexican-Confederate War begins (also known as The Border War).

Europe remains neutral as they have very little to gain by intruding. Max has gone rogue from France, and while they are still allies, the liberal monarch is no longer a puppet (and no longer absolutely powerful in Mexico). Austria, the UK, Russia, and Prussia don't have dogs in the hunt. Spain too has more to lose from assisting than it has to gain. The US is unable to provide any assistance but increases troop levels near its Southern border, and jump starts its shipyards a hundredfold in preparation of joining in and perhaps reclaiming some territory. The US President at the time (who?) is unwilling to risk an all out war at their current levels of preparation, and sees the CSA as a potentially valuable buffer between the US and royal Mexico, as well as a future trading partner of extreme importance. If they are unsure they can take back any territory, the President is unwilling to risk any US men or ships. He supports Mexico in name only, although it still decries the presence of Max.

Meanwhile in the CSA, the slaves and indentured servants (as well as the freemen and other minorities) launch rebellions en masse.

The CSA perhaps expected more European assistance and less popular Union hawkishness, and in spite of early victories at land and at sea begins to struggle to hold any ground. A year or two into the war, the US begins to blockade goods coming into the CSA, cutting it off economically.

The Generals and Admirals in Mexico, however, are gung ho to win one. They take New Orleans, occupy parts of the Gulf Coast and drive deep into Texarkana via Texas. West Texas is invaded and occupied by Mexican-American irregulars from NM and AZ who have taken control of those territories.

A good season and a severe push from the Mexican forces, added to the blockade begin to cripple the CSA. The Mexicans play dirty. Fields are ruined, rail lines sabotaged, and ships scuttled or captured outright.

As a Mexican expeditionary force nears Richmond the US finally feels comfortable joining in (unasked for). After campaigning for the world powers to cease recognition of the CSA as a legitimate government, (which occurs in light of their impending defeat) They declare war on the Confederacy and throw full support for Mexico. The invasion is a successful but unwarranted one, and Juarez warns there will be little tolerance for the US throwing weight around in the peace talks.

Mexico wins, the CSA is crippled beyond repair and Mexico and the US agree to sit down to split the spoils.

While not an official goal of the war (the CSA started it) by Mexico, the nation does want to increase territory. The port cities and miles of semi-industrialized farmland in the South would assist them in improving their economy and they have some (albeit feeble by this time) claim to much of it.

So the South is split. Refugees from the CSA travel mostly out west and to a newly independent Texan Republic, while some go to Brazil, Mexico, the Caribbean, Europe and even to the US and Mexico. Many stay and attempt to cause trouble for the US and Mexico, but overall peace is achieved after a great migration from Dixie.

Mexico and the US are now extreme rivals and both are industrializing and militarizing rapidly.

When Texas becomes split between remaining independent or going with one nation or the other war breaks out and this time, Mexico comes out ahead. (as in my idea earlier...)

Etc.?

Thoughts?
 
This would all happen around 1875-1885 for a CSA Mexico war right?

The USA might have already bought Alaska, is having the Klondike Gold Rush, has an Oil industry well established thanks to the Pennsylvania Oil Rush, annexed the Dominican Republic due to the CSA victory and still having the West Coast is building itself up in the Pacific including trade with the widely opened Asian nations Japan, Korea, China, is involved in the territorial growth of claiming Pacific islands thanks to the Guano Islands Act from 1857.

Even with no CSA and Maximilian around the USA will be the stronger in the Pacific and will have the benefits of not paying for Reconstruction and dominate trade with the Far East without middle men.

Without the South the USA would focus far more of its resources on the West Coast and the Central USA.
 
Top