Mexico vs The Confederate states.

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Dorozhand

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Just because they have a good relationship with the CSA does NOT mean they will help the CSA with Mexico. If Max controls it France wants Mexico for itself. If Max doesn't control it what has the CSA to offer that would be worth the price of sending a single battalion to help them?


Knowing Napoleon III and his romanticism, who's to say he won't join in the fun just for prestige and adventure's sake? It'll be his very own Egypt Campaign :D
 
Not likely. An independent Texas or one returned to America is much more feasible. However, should the Confederacy hold Arizona territory at the beginning of the war, the US might be more willing to let the Mexicans have that back, since it's not as valuable.


The CSA had as much chance of keeping AZ as I do of beating Joe Fraiser in his prime in a boxing match. The population was so low (about the same as Madison, Wisconsin at the time and Madison is hardly a big city now not talking 1860!) there can be no meaningful local support. That means that in the end it boils down to who has the most troops in the area and who has the better logistics. That is a contest the USA will win EVERY time!
 
HOW? If Max is ruling Mexico then the France is definitely backing it and the CSA can consider itself very lucky if it survives the war as it is likely to be gang tackled by France, Mexico and the US. If Juarez is ruling then France doesn't give a damn. If there is still a civil war going on in Mexico than France backs Max and leaves the CSA out in the cold. There is nothing that the CSA can offer France.

I was thinking more an alliance of convenience than anything. If the Civil War is over early enough, the Confederacy can attack Mexico while the French are still fighting. They wouldn't necessarily be supporting each other, or even allied in any sense of the word, but they would both be fighting Mexican government forces on different ends of the country. That or the Confederacy can attack the government in exile in Chihuahua at some point to "help" Max out.

This is also silly because it makes the giant assumption that the US wouldn't immediately ally with Mexico in order to stop Confederate expansion, which seems like by far the most likely scenario.

Would a war weary Union be able to attack the Confederacy? Monetary support is probably going to be guaranteed, but its not hard to imagine a scenario where military intervention could be a tough sell.
 
Would a war weary Union be able to attack the Confederacy? Monetary support is probably going to be guaranteed, but its not hard to imagine a scenario where military intervention could be a tough sell.

I think that depends on how and why the war ended. If they think they can ally with the Mexican Republican forces in a meaningful way, and they're still sore about losing all that territory... depending on how the government spins it, and the circumstances that lead to the first treaty, the Union might throw back into it again.
 
I was thinking more an alliance of convenience than anything. If the Civil War is over early enough, the Confederacy can attack Mexico while the French are still fighting. They wouldn't necessarily be supporting each other, or even allied in any sense of the word, but they would both be fighting Mexican government forces on different ends of the country. That or the Confederacy can attack the government in exile in Chihuahua at some point to "help" Max out.

In which case France still ends up with it. The fact is that the French are going to do most of the fighting, spend most of the money and have the more stable economy. The French don't need the CSA in any way. The CSA might wind up with a couple of islands off the Mexican coast or a few hundred square miles or so desert. That is about the most they can hope for.
 
I think that depends on how and why the war ended. If they think they can ally with the Mexican Republican forces in a meaningful way, and they're still sore about losing all that territory... depending on how the government spins it, and the circumstances that lead to the first treaty, the Union might throw back into it again.

I agree; it would depend a lot on the exact circumstances.

In which case France still ends up with it. The fact is that the French are going to do most of the fighting, spend most of the money and have the more stable economy. The French don't need the CSA in any way. The CSA might wind up with a couple of islands off the Mexican coast or a few hundred square miles or so desert. That is about the most they can hope for.

The Confederacy could end up with all of the states which border Texas, plus maybe Sonora or Baja California if they're lucky. Not enough to conquer Mexico by any means, but probably enough to be valuable - especially Sonora with its Pacific Ocean access. The islands could be useful too, anything to turn the Caribbean into a Confederate Lake. ;)
 
The Confederacy could end up with all of the states which border Texas, plus maybe Sonora or Baja California if they're lucky. Not enough to conquer Mexico by any means, but probably enough to be valuable - especially Sonora with its Pacific Ocean access. The islands could be useful too, anything to turn the Caribbean into a Confederate Lake. ;)

Depending on how the Confederacy chooses to deal with the Antilles, that whole "Confederate Lake" idea may become part of some Confederate version of Manifest Destiny. Total control over the Mediterranean waterways (making it a "Roman Lake") was part of what gave the Roman Empire its power, and they may see taking control of the Gulf of Mexico and securing the major islands of the Caribbean as some God given right and the key to success as a global trade power.
On the other hand, that's a pretty tall order. Mexico has too much beach front property for the Confederate war machine to swallow up, especially if Mexico has French backing, and taking control of the Antilles would take a concerted war effort against Spain, and France, which would draw in Mexico if Max were still on the throne, AND the UK as well.
So... I guess the "Confederate Lake" idea is too much to handle. It requires them to piss off all their current allies and make a couple more dangerous enemies.
 
I'd say the most likely choice is a US-backed Mexican Republic that fights off the French invaders against a French-backed CSA. Mexico probably wins, since the CSA has almost no industry at all and the US is backing Mexico unless France wants to try again in Mexico.

Why would France back the CSA? France does. Ot need the CSA and there is nothing the CSA can offer France.
 
Why would France back the CSA? France does. Ot need the CSA and there is nothing the CSA can offer France.
During the Civil War, France is the only one I can really see backing the CSA in order to weaken the USA and make it unable to uphold the Monroe Doctrine. That way, when the French invade Mexico, the USA can't do anything about it. But, for a Confederate-Mexican War to happen, I'd think that the USA would eventually get back on its feet and help the Mexicans push out the French and restore the republic, so if France wants to restore it's Mexican puppet, it might back the Confederacy.
 
During the Civil War, France is the only one I can really see backing the CSA in order to weaken the USA and make it unable to uphold the Monroe Doctrine. That way, when the French invade Mexico, the USA can't do anything about it. But, for a Confederate-Mexican War to happen, I'd think that the USA would eventually get back on its feet and help the Mexicans push out the French and restore the republic, so if France wants to restore it's Mexican puppet, it might back the Confederacy.

The CSA can do NOTHING for it. The CSA has to gaurd against the US, patrol for escaped slaves and stand down some of its army to rebuild its economy. How many troops can it possibly send? 5,000? Not nealy enough to make a difference.
 
The CSA can do NOTHING for it. The CSA has to gaurd against the US, patrol for escaped slaves and stand down some of its army to rebuild its economy. How many troops can it possibly send? 5,000? Not nealy enough to make a difference.
It can distract the US while France takes Mexico.
 
I can only wonder how early of a victory is the CSA suppose to have happened and how devastating a defeat for the US can this be to:

A. Leave the CSA with enough manpower, no high inflation, minimum escaped slaves, little harm to its economy to produce at least a third of what was fielded against the US, and quick post war recovery.

B. Weaken the US so it will be war weary, unable to produce massive quantities of arms using its industries, can't threaten the CSA border, won't recover faster than the CSA.

C. France still cares about Mexico at the time, the US doesn't care about Mexico, France is willing to give parts of Mexico up, France is in need of help to keep Mexico.

How does one get these conditions?
 
I can only wonder how early of a victory is the CSA suppose to have happened and how devastating a defeat for the US can this be to:

A. Leave the CSA with enough manpower, no high inflation, minimum escaped slaves, little harm to its economy to produce at least a third of what was fielded against the US, and quick post war recovery.

B. Weaken the US so it will be war weary, unable to produce massive quantities of arms using its industries, can't threaten the CSA border, won't recover faster than the CSA.

C. France still cares about Mexico at the time, the US doesn't care about Mexico, France is willing to give parts of Mexico up, France is in need of help to keep Mexico.

How does one get these conditions?
A Fall of France like scenario (j/k)
Don't see that happening, but a stalemate however unlikely is possible and if it happens rather quickly the CSA may be in a shape to fight (although i can't help their economic problems so they may have to start fighting pretty quick) so as I said they could DISTRACT the US while france consolidates its power in Mexico. But a straight up CSA vs Mexico probably won't happen, no body went 1 on 1 in the 1800 (for the most part) there were usually Europeans watching from a distance waiting for their chance to leap.
 
A Fall of France like scenario (j/k)
Don't see that happening, but a stalemate however unlikely is possible and if it happens rather quickly the CSA may be in a shape to fight (although i can't help their economic problems so they may have to start fighting pretty quick) so as I said they could DISTRACT the US while france consolidates its power in Mexico. But a straight up CSA vs Mexico probably won't happen, no body went 1 on 1 in the 1800 (for the most part) there were usually Europeans watching from a distance waiting for their chance to leap.
Actually this is pretty much what happened OTL. France and some other European states took the chance of the US being distracted by the ACW to send forces to collect repayment from Mexico but the others pulled out when France showed it wanted to secure Mexico for itself. It nearly succeeded but right after the ACW ended the USA still found the money and resources to not only armed the republicans but send a force of 50,000 to the border to threaten invasion. Basically the US was ready to go to war with France right after the ACW while it was occupying the South and preparing for Reconstruction.

I just don't see how the CSA manages to distract the US when they failed after years of war in OTL. How do they keep the US from invading Baja for one.

I am honestly ready to raise this one up to near Sea Lion level of ASB. I hear by dubbed thee Operation Gulf of Dixie.
 
Which Mexico?

The Federalist, US-backed, Juarez Mexico? or the CSA-Allied, French-puppet, Hapsburg-sitting Maximilian Mexico?

Because one will be an enemy of the CSA, and the other is going to be a comfortable and VERY important ally of the CSA.

If the CSA is able to gain independence, Juarez' days in Mexico are very well numbered.
 
I see a Mexico-CSA alliance as much more likely than any sort of conflict.

How would a combined semi-stable Mexico-CSA be able to hold off the Union?
 
The Confederacy could end up with all of the states which border Texas, plus maybe Sonora or Baja California if they're lucky. Not enough to conquer Mexico by any means, but probably enough to be valuable - especially Sonora with its Pacific Ocean access

In OTL, the Confederacy failed in every attempt to invade and seize territory. In Mexico they will be at the end of longer supply lines while the Mexicans will be fighting on home ground in good defensive terrain. Plus the Confederacy won't be fighting just northern Mexico, a land grab like this guarantees they will be fighting all of Mexico, regardless of whether Mexico is led by Jaurez, Maximillian, or split between the two. The Confederacy failed miserably in New Mexico, Mexico has 100 times the population, with more free people than the Confederacy. If Maximillian is in power, the Confederacy will be fighting France as well, which has a real navy. Even if the Union doesn't pile on as well, the best the Confederacy can hope for his keeping what they have before the war.
 

bguy

Donor
In OTL, the Confederacy failed in every attempt to invade and seize territory. In Mexico they will be at the end of longer supply lines while the Mexicans will be fighting on home ground in good defensive terrain. Plus the Confederacy won't be fighting just northern Mexico, a land grab like this guarantees they will be fighting all of Mexico, regardless of whether Mexico is led by Jaurez, Maximillian, or split between the two.

Didn't at least one of the northern Mexican Governors (Santiago Vidaurri) favor having his states join the Confederacy? If the CSA cuts a deal with him and the other border state governors they might have more support in northern Mexico than the Mexican central government.

If Maximillian is in power, the Confederacy will be fighting France as well, which has a real navy. Even if the Union doesn't pile on as well, the best the Confederacy can hope for his keeping what they have before the war.

I can't see the Confederates taking on Mexico if Maximillian is in power but even in a CSA wins scenario how long is he likely to last? France is bound to lock horns with Prussia sooner or later and whenever that happens the French will pretty much have to pull troops out of Mexico to defend France. Even with a few extra years in power to stabilize his rule, I doubt Maximillian can hold on without French troops.

So what about this scenario:
1870-France withdraws its troops from Mexico due to impending war with Prussia.
1871-Maximillian overthrown. Juarez takes power and moves to arrest Governor Vidaurri for treason. (Vidaurri had sided with the French during their occupation.) Vidarri (who has also been dealing with the CSA) declares independence for Coahuila and Nuevo León and calls on the CSA to annex his states. The CSA agrees and declares war on Mexico.

Assume also that the US has a Peace Democrat in office at this time (Seymour or Pendleton or Bayard) who is not interested in intervening in the conflict.

So under those circumstances who wins between the CSA and Mexico?
 
Which Mexico?

The Federalist, US-backed, Juarez Mexico? or the CSA-Allied, French-puppet, Hapsburg-sitting Maximilian Mexico?

Because one will be an enemy of the CSA, and the other is going to be a comfortable and VERY important ally of the CSA.

If the CSA is able to gain independence, Juarez' days in Mexico are very well numbered.

Even if they are allies that doesn't mean Mexico is willing to sell part of its land to the CSA.

You seem to have this bizarre notion that allies are willing to part themselves to their allies. They are not. France did not put a puppet on the throne so as to sell Mexico (or even part of it) to the CSA. If Max is ruling the FRENCH will control it not the CSA

Even if it were willing where is the CSA going to get the money buy it in the first place? Even in 1862 it is deeply in debt and its creditors (which .

includes Frenchmen and rich planters) will want to get paid first.
 
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