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Assuming that the Confederacy had won the ACW, what would be the most likely outcome of a war between the Confederacy and Mexico had one occurred?

Variables:
- When does the war occur: the 1870s, the '80s, the '90s, or later?
- Is Mexico under French rule, under Porfirio Diaz, or under some other leadership?
- Who starts the war and why?
- Is the Confederacy in control of the Arizona Territory when the war starts?
- What would be the most likely response of the US?
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