Mexico vs. the Confederacy

Assuming that the Confederacy had won the ACW, what would be the most likely outcome of a war between the Confederacy and Mexico had one occurred?

Variables:
- When does the war occur: the 1870s, the '80s, the '90s, or later?
- Is Mexico under French rule, under Porfirio Diaz, or under some other leadership?
- Who starts the war and why?
- Is the Confederacy in control of the Arizona Territory when the war starts?
- What would be the most likely response of the US?
 
Didn't the Mexican-American War came before the American Civil War? I assume you were talking about another different kind of war, thus a "Second Mexican-American War." I think that was pretty much unlikely though, not with the Union ready to take advantage of this conflict to restart the Civil War.
 
Assuming that the Confederacy had won the ACW, what would be the most likely outcome of a war between the Confederacy and Mexico had one occurred?

Variables:
- When does the war occur: the 1870s, the '80s, the '90s, or later?
- Is Mexico under French rule, under Porfirio Diaz, or under some other leadership?
- Who starts the war and why?
- Is the Confederacy in control of the Arizona Territory when the war starts?
- What would be the most likely response of the US?

If a war occurs at all between CSA and Mexico, I would say it would be the 1890s or after Maximilian dies. Obviously, I think Mexico will be ruled France or a French puppet, because US support was key in expelling the French in OTL. As for who and why, I am going CSA over access to the Pacific. I don't think US will give the CSA Arizona unless it is part of the ACW peace.

The US response depends upon two things, 1. how did the ACW end? with or without foreign intervention. If the English or French or both interfered then the US is probably out if they didn't the US will definitly hop on top the CSA at the earliest opportunity. 2. When did the USA CSA last fight? if it was the 1860s and this CSA-Mexico war is in the 1890s I say the US is in regardless. If a CSA-Mexico conflict occurs before then, than the the US is out.

A lot of what the US does depends upon what Europe does, with the provisio that the US will be itching for a rematch.

The ultimate WI is if the US and the CSA split relatively amicably then in that case, I have no idea.
 
At first, I thought this would be a no-brainer.

After all, in our timeline, Mexico hadn't produced much of a showing. Essentially, they'd gotten their butts kicked badly in the Texas Revolt. Then they'd gotten their butts kicked badly in the Mexican American war.

In both these wars, they'd only been able to field relatively small armies, the armies were poorly equipped, logistically inferior, and badly lead.

In our timeline, there's no real sign of that changing. They had a pretty good guerilla war in the Civil War period, and periods of internal strife up to the Mexican Civil War.

In the meantime, the Confederacy in the Civil War was able to field a sophisticated first rate army, well equipped, well lead, in huge numbers.

So it seems to me that it would amount to a big swat.

Likely it still is.

I don't know that there would be sufficient butterflies to really change the equations. But there might be a variable or two.

A Confederacy might be substantially less effective projecting power. They fought the civil war on home ground. Going into Mexico might be a challenge to logistical capabilities, who knows.

And if their Mexican incursion ends up going against France, who knows. The thing with this is that the Confederacy was pretty tolerant of Maximillion, and might continue to be. On the other hand, alliances like that change on a dime. So the CSA might want the French out, might or might not force the French out. Might occupy Mexico themselves. A guerilla war is always brutal on an army.

But supposing the French don't leave and it turns into a stand up fight.... Who knows, it might be the thing that reconciles the French and Mexicans. At the very least, the French will be a lot better at fighting a stand up war than a guerilla occupation.

We might have a butterfly in this timeline where Mexico has a much better time getting its act together and becomes a more robust and viable state that could pose a real challenge to a CSA. Who knows. Off the top of my head, we might see a situation where the USA builds up Mexico in order to balance the Confederates.
 
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