Mexico the strong

[Mrstrategy]

What if the goverment of Mexico responded harshly to the punite expeditions of the U.S against Veracruz and pancho villa treating them as an invasions and giving an ultimatum of either withdraw and pay reparations or face war or at least nationalization of U.S companies and a embargo against the U.S perhaps even creating an alliance with other South American countries who had also faced American punitive expeditions

 

[cpip]

Well, first you'd have to have a singular Government of Mexico for the time. Is it Carranza's government that's saying this? Huerta's? Villa's? Zapata's?

If you are enacting an embargo against the United States, what are you embargoing? The oil?

And lastly, which South American countries have the capacity to project any form of power against the United States?

It's a nice dream of standing up to the neighborhood bully, but when said bully holds all the cards... it's not likely to result in anything. A Mexico strong enough to repel the United States wouldn't have been subjected to the indignities it was.

 

[Alex1guy]

The United States mobilises, goes to war crushes and Mexico.

 

[Blackfox5]

If Mexico was capable of responding harshly to the US interventions, the US probably would not have seen any need of intervening itself. It could count on the Mexican government to handle whatever reason that provoked the interventions, or there would have been no provocations to begin with.

 

[Mrstrategy]

Even if Mexico is not strong enought to back its ultimatum military it still has cause problem for U.S companies in Mexico plus embarrass the U.S diplomatically since they either have to withdraw the expeditions or continue and be considered an act of war regardless of strength I doubt U.S companies will have an easy time since it will seem since The U.S in willing to intervene anywhere it wants even if the nation it intervenes refuses to accept the intervention

 

[M79]

It might have larger effects on Europe and World War I as the United States would be distracted and spending money/resources elsewhere from Europe. Create a quagmire in Mexico around 1914 - say Naco, AZ goes hot (Mexican troops fighting their Civil War shot over the border and injured several Americans who did NOT return fire in OTL) shortly after the Tampico Affair combined with the Veracruz expedition going more violent afterwards. Maybe the US has to occupy much of the country in a repeat of 1848 before peace is achieved, perhaps minus territory or perhaps not (if so likely Sonora and/or Baja California, less likely Chihuahua - or independent Yucatan/Republic of the Rio Grande/Sonora + Baja/etc). Maybe several prominent World War II officers like Patton die here and the butterflies really get interesting, or maybe some of Mondragon's M1908 semi-automatic rifles finds their way to John Browning or other rifle manufacturers. We then get a really irredentist Mexico (especially if any territory is taken or set free as independent countries like the Republic of the Rio Grande etc.

 

[Not Henry G.]

Something to consider is Mexico provided some 60% of Britain's oil during WWI. If a Second Mexican-American War does happen that oil is gone in the chaos. How does that affect the British war effort short and long-term?

 

[Riain]

Something to consider is Mexico provided some 60% of Britain's oil during WWI. If a Second Mexican-American War does happen that oil is gone in the chaos. How does that affect the British war effort short and long-term?

I think this is a fascinating question. Would US intervention stopping most of Britain's oil would be a bigger loss than the gains made by US participation? I can't imagine the British being too happy about inviting the US into WW1 as an ally after the damage to the British war effort a greater intervention may cause.

 

[Derwit]

Br

Something to consider is Mexico provided some 60% of Britain's oil during WWI. If a Second Mexican-American War does happen that oil is gone in the chaos. How does that affect the British war effort short and long-term?

Britain rules the waves and can buy its oil from anywhere around the world including the USA. Perhaps the price goes up but their buying on credit (mostly from the USA and will pay the piper after the war). Or not

Also oil is not as important to the war effort as it would be a generation later. Short term, harsher rationing and a more concentrated search for oil within the Empire so in the medium too longer term such issues are less worrying.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Mexico was in the middle of a revolution with several factions fighting each other (as well as making temporary Alliances). Mexico was in no shape to do anything. Sure, the Pershing expedition could have lead to war (and that's the one instance when war was possible), if there was someone not trying to avoid war as much as possible in the White House. And a war between the US and Mexico would have been very vloody and not as easy as the Americans would assume. With the evil Gringos invading many of the factions in Mexico would probably have forged a truce to deal with the invasion. The US would win in the end, that's not even a question. It would be very bloody though with loads of casualties on both sides.

 

[Riain]

Mexico was in the middle of a revolution with several factions fighting each other (as well as making temporary Alliances). Mexico was in no shape to do anything. Sure, the Pershing expedition could have lead to war (and that's the one instance when war was possible), if there was someone not trying to avoid war as much as possible in the White House. And a war between the US and Mexico would have been very vloody and not as easy as the Americans would assume. With the evil Gringos invading many of the factions in Mexico would probably have forged a truce to deal with the invasion. The US would win in the end, that's not even a question. It would be very bloody though with loads of casualties on both sides.

More importantly it would soak up US efforts that were IOTL used on the Western Front. There would be less US finance and certainly no US government underwriting of loans, no arms exports, no AEF, no USN Battle squadron in Europe and quite possible a major disruption to British oil supplies for the RN.

 

[Mrstrategy]

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