Mexico Invades and Annexes Cuba From Spain

What if sometime after México's Independence from Spain, Agustín became ambitious as an emperor and invaded and annexed Cuba for resources? Do you think the invasion would be successful or would a Méxican Invasion of Cuba have to happen another time (Maybe México's military is not ready yet under Agustín)? When do you think Cuba would achieve independence? Just a thought I had if Cuba were to be ruled by a different colonial power instead of Spain or the United States.
 

Inchoate

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Surely you would need some significant deveopment for the Mexican economy first? OTL the USA didn't exactly walk over Spain in the Spanish-American War.
 
The problem with that how are you going to resolve Mexico's numerous problems? Clashes between liberals and conservatives, not that much really changing aside from the criolos becoming top dogs over the Peninsulares. Otherwise what would be the point.
 

Inchoate

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You serious right there...?
Last time I checked, the US ROFLSTOMPED Spain.

I wouldn't dream of describing it as that. It wasn't a particularly close-run thing, but it certainly wasn't a walkover in any sense of the word, and there was plenty of opportunity for things to go badly wrong.
 
What if sometime after México's Independence from Spain, Agustín became ambitious as an emperor and invaded and annexed Cuba for resources? Do you think the invasion would be successful or would a Méxican Invasion of Cuba have to happen another time (Maybe México's military is not ready yet under Agustín)? When do you think Cuba would achieve independence? Just a thought I had if Cuba were to be ruled by a different colonial power instead of Spain or the United States.

It would probably be viewed as a waste of military forces since Mexico had to use them to deal with other issues (Spain, local enemies, Native Americans). It might hasten Iturbide's fall. And Cuba during the Latin American Wars of Independence was a royalist stronghold since the dominant political class was paranoid their slaves would pull a Haiti on them, so they relied on Spain to protect them from that threat. Victory is not guaranteed.

And what resources does Cuba have? Extra sugar plantations? Mexico's already got that. Tobacco? I'm pretty sure Mexico's already got that (yes, the famous Cuban cigars, I know, but regardless). But if this actually happened, that might be interesting in regards to Spanish migration to the New World, where in the 19th century Cuba disproportionately received Spanish immigrants. It will still receive some, no doubt, but probably this would mean more in Chile and the former Gran Colombian countries early on (they were the most stable for the most part early-mid 19th century), later moreso toward Argentina and Uruguay once their civil wars end, and also Peru and Bolivia (once the internal instability ceases and some semblance of order exists).

But since early Mexico was most certainly not a stable country, Cuba would secede early on alongside Yucatan and Rio Grande. But unlike those two, it won't be as easily reannexed. Depending on political loyalties for this short-lived "Republic of Cuba", it could either rejoin Spain (as the Dominican Republic did for a few years), join the US (as Yucatan and later the Dominican Republic attempted to do), or try and be genuinely independent. Since the Dominican annexation vote was pretty close, and a significant lobby existed pre-American Civil War to annex Cuba, you can probably count on it joining the US unless they have a clique of political strongment hellbent on rejoining Spain. Mexican rule will be fleeting.

You serious right there...?
Last time I checked, the US ROFLSTOMPED Spain.

Navy-wise. But weren't the land battles harder fought?
 

Deleted member 67076

You need to make the Mexican Empire last for a few decades in order to obtain the economic growth that could in turn fuel the military needed to achieve this.

So basically have Iturbide somehow keep the monarchy and have Mexico be reasonable stable while doing some industrialization. Then keep an eye and in contact with Cuba's period revolts.

Assuming a 10 years war analogue exists, this would be the perfect time to intervene and snatch Cuba from Spain. If Mexico is reasonably liberal and grants its provinces autonomy, Cuba is likely to join without much of a hassle.
 

Deleted member 67076

It would probably be viewed as a waste of military forces since Mexico had to use them to deal with other issues (Spain, local enemies, Native Americans). It might hasten Iturbide's fall. And Cuba during the Latin American Wars of Independence was a royalist stronghold since the dominant political class was paranoid their slaves would pull a Haiti on them, so they relied on Spain to protect them from that threat. Victory is not guaranteed.

And what resources does Cuba have? Extra sugar plantations? Mexico's already got that. Tobacco? I'm pretty sure Mexico's already got that (yes, the famous Cuban cigars, I know, but regardless). But if this actually happened, that might be interesting in regards to Spanish migration to the New World, where in the 19th century Cuba disproportionately received Spanish immigrants. It will still receive some, no doubt, but probably this would mean more in Chile and the former Gran Colombian countries early on (they were the most stable for the most part early-mid 19th century), later moreso toward Argentina and Uruguay once their civil wars end, and also Peru and Bolivia (once the internal instability ceases and some semblance of order exists).

But since early Mexico was most certainly not a stable country, Cuba would secede early on alongside Yucatan and Rio Grande. But unlike those two, it won't be as easily reannexed. Depending on political loyalties for this short-lived "Republic of Cuba", it could either rejoin Spain (as the Dominican Republic did for a few years), join the US (as Yucatan and later the Dominican Republic attempted to do), or try and be genuinely independent. Since the Dominican annexation vote was pretty close, and a significant lobby existed pre-American Civil War to annex Cuba, you can probably count on it joining the US unless they have a clique of political strongment hellbent on rejoining Spain. Mexican rule will be fleeting.



Navy-wise. But weren't the land battles harder fought?
Well, Cuba provides to Mexico a strategic base in the Caribbean and another decently sized tax base.

And should (a stable, powerful) Mexico intervene, Cuba's upper class is in a tight spot. Mexico was fiercely abolitionist, giving them a leveraging point for the masses of slaves to rise up with the Mexican expeditionary forces.

The Spanish immigration might still come to Island, and it not more Asians or English Caribbeans might take their place. Its got plenty of land to go around, and sugar made decent money for Spanish peasants (see: Immigration in the Dominican Republic). If this is a decently industrialized Mexico, Cuba can also get some industry going along (Cuba's got plenty of iron, nickel, cobolt, etc) for those looking to take advantage of cheap labor costs.

I doubt a republican Cuba would rejoin Spain, there's a lot more hatred towards Spain than there was in Santo Domingo (whos elites were constantly looking for a patron against the perceived Haitian menace).
 

raharris1973

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"It would probably be viewed as a waste of military forces since Mexico had to use them to deal with other issues (Spain, local enemies, Native Americans)."

Actually the Spanish threat could (and I think actually did) make Mexico be more motivated to try to take Cuba than less.
If, somehow, Cuba can be taken by the Mexican Empire, or least broken off from Spain, the Spanish efforts to reconquer Mexico in the 1820s would have to have been based much further away, in Puerto Rico, instead.

"Since the Dominican annexation vote was pretty close, and a significant lobby existed pre-American Civil War to annex Cuba, you can probably count on it joining the US unless they have a clique of political strongmen hellbent on rejoining Spain. Mexican rule will be fleeting."

A problem with seeing an American annexation of a Mexican or post-Mexican Cuba is that a likely consequence of Mexicans winning control over Cuba (by invasion or coordination with sympathetic revolutionaries on the island) is that slavery would be abolished. Once Cuban slavery is abolished, the southern states' interest in annexing it goes down to zero with the large free black population being a turn-off for them.
 
You need to make the Mexican Empire last for a few decades in order to obtain the economic growth that could in turn fuel the military needed to achieve this.

So basically have Iturbide somehow keep the monarchy and have Mexico be reasonable stable while doing some industrialization. Then keep an eye and in contact with Cuba's period revolts.

Assuming a 10 years war analogue exists, this would be the perfect time to intervene and snatch Cuba from Spain. If Mexico is reasonably liberal and grants its provinces autonomy, Cuba is likely to join without much of a hassle.

Somehow I don't think Iturbide's empire is really the key to a stable early Mexico that can do any significant amount of industrialisation. But maybe nothing is, it's more a matter of how less bad things are compared to OTL. When you have Native tribes raiding with impunity to not much further north than Mexico City itself, you have a wreck of an economy, and you have multiple provinces in rebellion plus frequent military coups, that's not conducive for anything but "failed state". That's OTL Mexico in the 1830s/early 1840s. Mexico has a decade to get a better result than that.

And I'm not sure why Cuba might want to join Mexico when they're fighting a war against Spain for their independence. Unless I'm wrong and there was a pro-Mexican movement of any note in Cuba at that time? And if Iturbide's in charge, wouldn't that mean the conservatives have the upper hand in things in Mexico? And weren't many of the Cuban independence fighters liberals? And Mexico of course won't find any support from the pro-Spanish portion of Cubans.

Well, Cuba provides to Mexico a strategic base in the Caribbean and another decently sized tax base.

And should (a stable, powerful) Mexico intervene, Cuba's upper class is in a tight spot. Mexico was fiercely abolitionist, giving them a leveraging point for the masses of slaves to rise up with the Mexican expeditionary forces.

The Spanish immigration might still come to Island, and it not more Asians or English Caribbeans might take their place. Its got plenty of land to go around, and sugar made decent money for Spanish peasants (see: Immigration in the Dominican Republic). If this is a decently industrialized Mexico, Cuba can also get some industry going along (Cuba's got plenty of iron, nickel, cobolt, etc) for those looking to take advantage of cheap labor costs.

I doubt a republican Cuba would rejoin Spain, there's a lot more hatred towards Spain than there was in Santo Domingo (whos elites were constantly looking for a patron against the perceived Haitian menace).

Yeah, I totally forgot the whole slavery issue in Mexico when I typed my previous post. Trying to abolish slavery in Cuba seems like a hassle that'll just make Cuba try to split off like Rio Grande or Yucatan since the political elite won't go for it without compensation of some nature. Invading with the help of a slave uprising would look horrible--and what's to stop some slave from trying to make his own version of Haiti there?

Actually the Spanish threat could (and I think actually did) make Mexico be more motivated to try to take Cuba than less.
If, somehow, Cuba can be taken by the Mexican Empire, or least broken off from Spain, the Spanish efforts to reconquer Mexico in the 1820s would have to have been based much further away, in Puerto Rico, instead.

A problem with seeing an American annexation of a Mexican or post-Mexican Cuba is that a likely consequence of Mexicans winning control over Cuba (by invasion or coordination with sympathetic revolutionaries on the island) is that slavery would be abolished. Once Cuban slavery is abolished, the southern states' interest in annexing it goes down to zero with the large free black population being a turn-off for them.

They do have to get past the Spanish Navy though, and that includes supplying their invasion of Cuba. But it would be good for Mexico to make an effort against those Cuban bases.

The South might not want it as much as they did, but the proximity to the US would be tempting. If both Yucatan and Dominican Republic attempted to join the US, then I thing Cuba would definitely have a movement. And it's so close, after all, and it's just better land than either Yucatan or the Dominican Republic. All those free blacks could make a good cheap labour force that would be among the cheapest in the country (but not as efficient as slavery). And lawmakers who might be concerned of what happens if slavery is abolished in the US could do a "testbed" of sorts for Jim Crow-style laws to see if they accomplish making a good social order. The economics would also mean Cuba would be very tied to the US at some point. I think if even if Mexico can keep it, it'll still have very strong ties to the US.
 

Deleted member 67076

Somehow I don't think Iturbide's empire is really the key to a stable early Mexico that can do any significant amount of industrialisation. But maybe nothing is, it's more a matter of how less bad things are compared to OTL. When you have Native tribes raiding with impunity to not much further north than Mexico City itself, you have a wreck of an economy, and you have multiple provinces in rebellion plus frequent military coups, that's not conducive for anything but "failed state". That's OTL Mexico in the 1830s/early 1840s. Mexico has a decade to get a better result than that.

Funny thing, the empire (and New Spain beforehand) actually had established relations with the Comanche in a way that was like the Russian empire with its Cossacks. Relations only broke down after the establishment of the republic. And as a side effect, El Norte lost half its people from Comanche raids.

The other problems of revolts and bankruptcy are a runaway side effect of Mexican politics that both set the precedent for revolts, and an unstable political situation at home. Hence the idea would be to avert these crises by keeping a stable regime in charge. The empire seems like a good place to start, as Agustin tried to be the middle ground between the Liberals and Conservatives.

If he can keep it that way until the state institutions are strong enough (tricky but not impossible I think) then you can get a much stronger and bigger Mexico that can project power. How much stronger? Well that depends on internal politics.

And I'm not sure why Cuba might want to join Mexico when they're fighting a war against Spain for their independence. Unless I'm wrong and there was a pro-Mexican movement of any note in Cuba at that time? And if Iturbide's in charge, wouldn't that mean the conservatives have the upper hand in things in Mexico? And weren't many of the Cuban independence fighters liberals? And Mexico of course won't find any support from the pro-Spanish portion of Cubans.
It depends on how internal politics in Mexico turn out. I'm assuming the Mexicans dont aim for Cuba for a few decades onward, which means the state won't be the same. I think it will lean conservative because of the economic situation (large landowners, low class mobility) but that's not a given.

Cuban leaders were usually liberal, but well they might be willing to work with a conservative government to bolster their agenda. Pragmatism makes for strange alliances.

It's all a gamble, and one that depends on certain things going right for both parties but I don't think Cuban leaders flipping to Mexico is out of the real of possibility

Yeah, I totally forgot the whole slavery issue in Mexico when I typed my previous post. Trying to abolish slavery in Cuba seems like a hassle that'll just make Cuba try to split off like Rio Grande or Yucatan since the political elite won't go for it without compensation of some nature.
I don't think the elites are a problem- if Mexico intervenes during a revolt, rather than a direct conquest. That way you can replace the elites with your own proxies (the liberals/independence faction) and purge the unwilling ones.

Although compensation for slavery has been done before in Colombia and Brazil, so its not out of the realm of possiblity.
Invading with the help of a slave uprising would look horrible--and what's to stop some slave from trying to make his own version of Haiti there?
Why bite the hand that's feeding you? The slaves lose too much if they try to fight back against Mexicans that are helping them.

They do have to get past the Spanish Navy though, and that includes supplying their invasion of Cuba. But it would be good for Mexico to make an effort against those Cuban bases.

The South might not want it as much as they did, but the proximity to the US would be tempting. If both Yucatan and Dominican Republic attempted to join the US, then I thing Cuba would definitely have a movement. And it's so close, after all, and it's just better land than either Yucatan or the Dominican Republic. All those free blacks could make a good cheap labour force that would be among the cheapest in the country (but not as efficient as slavery). And lawmakers who might be concerned of what happens if slavery is abolished in the US could do a "testbed" of sorts for Jim Crow-style laws to see if they accomplish making a good social order. The economics would also mean Cuba would be very tied to the US at some point. I think if even if Mexico can keep it, it'll still have very strong ties to the US.
DRs attempt is a bit of a fluke given only Baez and his cronies wanted it, and they were a minorty of landholders in the Southwest. Its not representative of a general Caribbean trend to petition for annexation.
 
I wouldn't dream of describing it as that. It wasn't a particularly close-run thing, but it certainly wasn't a walkover in any sense of the word, and there was plenty of opportunity for things to go badly wrong.

It was a naval war fought over islands. Hell, the US could lose every single land battle and it wouldn't change much. The war lasted 3 months. Thats a walkover in *every* sense of the word.
 
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