Mexico in a CS Victory TL?

Anaxagoras

Banned
How would events in Mexico have been changed in the event of a Confederate victory in the Civil War? Would the French intervention have been successful?
 
Given how unpopular it is, I suppose the question is how much France will put into keeping it going that they decided not to OTL (after the US made it clear it disapproved post-ACW)?
 
If France aided the Confederates in breaking away, Richmond might look the other way to France's dealings in Mexico.


Or at least purchase half of Mexico, in addition to annexing Cuba :rolleyes:.

Naturally. How can you have a CSA without Cuba? Unthinkable.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Naturally. How can you have a CSA without Cuba? Unthinkable.

I can see the Confederacy making a play for Cuba at some point, since there would have still been a revolt against Spanish rule and pre-war Southern ideology had a big emphasis on expansion into the Caribbean and Central America. But I don't see them messing around in Mexico. They respected France much more then they respected Spain.
 

Thande

Donor
What would be interesting is if you paired the common theory on here that the CSA was doomed to stagnation and political instability with the idea that Mexico gets lucky and manages to modernise and stabilise to the point where it's in a superior military position, and then what if Mexico decides to have a go at getting Texas back? What would the USA do in such a situation?

Probably not terribly likely, but it would be a neat reversal of the usual cliché King Nazar mentions.
 
Why do people always forget that by the 1864 France had already abandoned Maximilian to prepare for war with Prussia. Even if the CSA wins the war early on it is still going to be a few years before it can gather its strength to change any outcome in Mexico.

Maximilain falls anyway, because he doesn't have foreign support nor support of the Mexicans in general. He might last a bit longer, but the Empire falls anyways. And the US will still help the Republican government, if for any other reason that it would be a way to make sure the CSA stays dependent on it and within its sphere.
 
Why do people always forget that by the 1864 France had already abandoned Maximilian to prepare for war with Prussia.

France didn't start withdrawing troops from Mexico until May 31, 1866. In December of 1866 the Austrian and Belgian volunteers disbanded and most of them left.
 
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