Mexico Following CSA Victory

Cyrrylia

Banned
I did a search for this, and could not find anything. So apologies if this has been fleshed out already.

Assuming a Confederate victory in 1852, what would the concequences be for Mexico? Would the US be in any state to help the Republicans fight off the French? Would the war drag on, or would the French prevail, and the 2nd Mexican Empire left to stand?

What exactly would happen?
 

Keenir

Banned
I did a search for this, and could not find anything. So apologies if this has been fleshed out already.

Assuming a Confederate victory in 1852, what would the concequences be for Mexico? Would the US be in any state to help the Republicans fight off the French? Would the war drag on, or would the French prevail, and the 2nd Mexican Empire left to stand?

What exactly would happen?
making "common cause" with the Union against any threat of Confederate aggression?

-Keenir, equally curious.
 

Tielhard

Banned
I suspect you are looking at a much more stable Mexico as a French vassal state. The USA will have had its Imperial ambitions slowed if not stopped. The CSA will not have the strength to impose its will on France. Britain will back the French more than in OTL because neither north American state will be in a position to dislodge the French, both of them need British investment and British business can make lots of money in Mexico.
 
In 1852? The CSA walks all over Mexico as the French won't arrive for another decade.

Now, in 1862 the CSA undoubtedly seizes substantial territory, probably in partnership with France, which no doubt sees a benefit in yielding some territory in return for the CSA having to patrol that area AND thus block any US aid to Juarez.

The British will continue to play little or no role and France will pull out in any event after the Franco-Prussian War.
 

Cyrrylia

Banned
Now, in 1862 the CSA undoubtedly seizes substantial territory, probably in partnership with France, which no doubt sees a benefit in yielding some territory in return for the CSA having to patrol that area AND thus block any US aid to Juarez.
Would the US even be capable or willing to give aid to Juarez? Is that even something the French need to fear? Following a loss in the war, would they have the means to get supplies over to Mexico?

And would the French try to get the newly established CS to help in any way? Not for the reasons you outlined, since, well, I wonder if the US would bother at this point to help, but maybe just to make it easier. Perhaps yeilding territory for foodstuffs and arms. Maybe some men. I figure if this would happen, it would happen at around 1865, when the Republicans first start getting victories.

Thoughts?
 
My View

Now Mexico in 1865 was a MESS , the French were only there because they could.There emperor Maximilion 1 was a tad dense he desided to become the leader of a upsidedown country that had nothing more to offer.

Now if the Confederates had survived Mximilion would have tryed to sale off northern mexico for two resons one the north was nothing but desert, two less people to take of : I think AT least Chihuahua,Sonora,and Baja California Norte and Sur would go to the Confederacy and later on possible evan Sinaloa,Dorango,Nayarit, Coahuila, Nevo Leon,AND Tamauipas.Thats just my view,Whatya think hmmmmmmmmmm??????????
 
I don't think that Maximilian would be inclined to sell large parts of Mexico unless he had no choice. After all, he was a foreigner and he wanted to prove that he supported the interests of his adopted country/Empire.

If Britain backs France in supporting Maximilian and warns the USA and CSA not to intervene, Maximilian will win. If it's just France supporting Maximilian, however, it will probably be quite a bit more difficult. The USA and possibly the CSA will send aid to the rebels under Juarez. In OTL the US sent lots of surplus Springfield rifles and muskets to the rebels in Mexico, which helped them considerably. If the rebellion is still festering in 1870-71, France will probably pull out its last troops if it still gets beaten by Prussia. Of course, butterflies might prevent a Franco-Prussian war or have France victorious, which produces changes in many places besides North America.
 
If Britain backs France in supporting Maximilian and warns the USA and CSA not to intervene, Maximilian will win. If it's just France supporting Maximilian, however, it will probably be quite a bit more difficult. The USA and possibly the CSA will send aid to the rebels under Juarez. In OTL the US sent lots of surplus Springfield rifles and muskets to the rebels in Mexico, which helped them considerably. If the rebellion is still festering in 1870-71, France will probably pull out its last troops if it still gets beaten by Prussia. Of course, butterflies might prevent a Franco-Prussian war or have France victorious, which produces changes in many places besides North America.
British support for Maximilian will not make him win, unless it is accompanied by prolonged British military support. Either the British or French Governments will probably be forced to withdraw at some time due to domestic politics, undoubtedly more influencial in Britain.
 
My thoughts are that Northern Mexico seceeds from the southern part.
I'm not sure that Northern Mexico would be a viable state? I'm thinking that it might be agriculturally self sufficient, but doesn't have much more to offer. If it maintained its independence somehow, I'm thinking it would be a perpetual 3rd world nation, with an even higher level of emigration than OTL.

Granted I'm talking about the Northern Border states. I just don't see much economic promise. JMO
 
Depend, on me, if CSA gained indipendece with France help or alone.
If they gained freedom alone, may be Richmond may support USA action against Mexico and things goes, more or less, than in OTL
 
If the CSA comes into existence in 1852~1853,, Probably in '53 as a result of the '52 elections, the question becomes what States, make the CSA.
Whe are looking in Particular at Texas. ?Did they join? If yes than the CSA probably got New Mex as well.
Then you need Mexico to Declare Bankruptcy in 1858, Britain, France and [Who was #3] to move in to collect on the defaulted Bonds. Britain and #3, to pull out, and Maximilian, to move in.
Then You have a Change as the CSA doesn't allow Juarez. to set up shop in Arizona, out of the reach of the French/Mexican Forces. Then the CS offers to Pay off the European Bonds, in exchange for Sonora/Baja and a Pacific port.

If you meant the CS wins in 62, and you miskeyed . then the CS probably doesn't have new Mex, and there is no Change till several years later. when Relations between Mexico and the CS deteriorate.
 
Then you need Mexico to Declare Bankruptcy in 1858, Britain, France and [Who was #3] to move in to collect on the defaulted Bonds.
#3 was Spain.

I think France would have an easier war if they convince Spain to join them again, but the Spanish plans for a Mexican monarchy were to place a Bourbon on the throne. Maybe Napoleon III decides to drop Maximilian and pick someone the Spanish would support.
 
If the CSA wins / doesn't lose and stays independent, the US are weaker and might not enforce Monroe doctrine. Neither will the CSA, they'll have to watch the US in the first place and can't afford to tick off the French.

So the French will stay... until it becomes apparent that they can't force the Mexicans to accept the regime. So they'll leave and have wasted even more money and men and prestige.
 
Britain wouldn't help France here.
At the start of the campaign against Mexico Britain and Spain were helping France to get the Mexicans to pay back their debt.
When France started sending troops inland though and making clear it had imperial ambitions we went back home and started grumbling about what they were doing.

The Mexican Empire would be established. The best hope for the US would be to recognise it ASAP and try and build good relations.
 
Well, the French-supported Maximilian regime seems to have been fairly unpopular in Mexico. Even without US pressure France is going to have to commit lots of troops for years to have much chance getting secure authority for Maximilian. They would probably still be fighting in 1870, and if the Franco-Prussian war still happens with the same results as OTL, Maximilian might be in trouble. On the other hand, if France was still involved in fighting in Mexico, perhaps Napoleon III wouldn't take Bismarck's bait and the war wouldn't even happen.
 
I think the Turtledove scenario is most likely - the CSA wants to expand to the Pacific and as the USA don't cede New Mexico, the CSA decides to go through Sonora and Chiauaua (sp). They could even take Baja California. Whether that's through diplomacy or force I wouldn't like to speculate.
 
Top