Mexico Challenge
- Thread starter Tetsu
- Start date
Well, they need California, that's for sure.
So maybe gold is discovered shortly after 1800, and California recieves refugees from the wars in Europe. It's not an easy time to get to the Pacific though, so California will be majority Spanish/Mexican. That will also create the prospector class like OTL, but Spanish-speaking. Prospectors created the population base for a lot of the Western states in OTL, so we can expect Spanish towns popping up throughout New Spain and into the areas where land claims aren't yet definate.
The real trick then is keeping California from breaking off once Mexico gains independence. If that can be done, though, the Mexicans will probably hold on to Central America as well.
Nicaragua to Western Montana - that would do a pretty good job territorially, but if you want a genuine super-power then just about everything needs reforming.
So maybe gold is discovered shortly after 1800, and California recieves refugees from the wars in Europe. It's not an easy time to get to the Pacific though, so California will be majority Spanish/Mexican. That will also create the prospector class like OTL, but Spanish-speaking. Prospectors created the population base for a lot of the Western states in OTL, so we can expect Spanish towns popping up throughout New Spain and into the areas where land claims aren't yet definate.
The real trick then is keeping California from breaking off once Mexico gains independence. If that can be done, though, the Mexicans will probably hold on to Central America as well.
Nicaragua to Western Montana - that would do a pretty good job territorially, but if you want a genuine super-power then just about everything needs reforming.
Here's an idea. In Mexico (I think) and many Latin American states, one must pay for education all the way to high school, but college/university is free. In practice, this means a lot of poorer people aren't well educated and thus there is much less social mobility.
Let's have Benito Juarez, after defeating Maximillian, fix this. Primary and secondary school is now taxpayer-supported. Perhaps college education is de-subsidized to pay for this, or perhaps Juarez decides to keep college taxpayer-funded as well in order to accelrate Mexico's development.
As a result of this particular reform, Mexico has a much larger educated population, which will in turn affect politics, industrialization, etc. That should go a LONG way to making Mexico FAR stronger than in OTL.
Let's have Benito Juarez, after defeating Maximillian, fix this. Primary and secondary school is now taxpayer-supported. Perhaps college education is de-subsidized to pay for this, or perhaps Juarez decides to keep college taxpayer-funded as well in order to accelrate Mexico's development.
As a result of this particular reform, Mexico has a much larger educated population, which will in turn affect politics, industrialization, etc. That should go a LONG way to making Mexico FAR stronger than in OTL.
David S Poepoe
Banned
I think whatever reforms Juarez puts into place will be done away with by Diaz. I would suggest that Santa Ana doesn't make his deal with the conservatives and centralizes power in Mexico during the early 1830s, thereby reversing the likely course of Mexican democracy. At least Texas wouldn't be driven to revolt by his direct actions and with that being a fairly prosperous Mexican state the possibility of rebellion, and all that follows, diminishes to a degree. With no caus belli in 1848 the Gold Rush will firmly, tho perhaps temporarily, on Mexican land.
Well, if they handle the Texans well, no reason why they wouldn't handle the guys coming into California well either. This could see a large influx of immigrants which could prove valuable, especially if Mexico keeps its act together. Then, the issue would be about their ability to assimilate the new citizens of course.David S Poepoe said:
If they don't get themselves invaded by the US and if the ACW still happens, anyone think they might ally with the Union after the Emancipation Proclamation? Mexico did forbid slavery, after all...
I doubt there would be a Civil War, much less an Emancipation Proclamation, but that's just me.
David S Poepoe
Banned
I think there would be some type of Southern rebellion, in by arms or through the legislatures, since without the acquisition of Texas, and the other lands won by the Mexican-American War the balance of slave to non-slave states comes to a head much sooner. However, I doubt Lincoln (for arguments sake) would accept the Mexicans as ally - strictly on the grounds that since this is a purely domestic affair to do so may be perceived as a sign of weakness on the part of the Union. Mexico would just be asked to close its borders with the Confederacy.
Early U.S. breakup?
Perhaps you need to make the U.S. less formidable. Perhaps the Constitutional Convention fails and the Confederation eventually breaks up into smaller political units.
Perhaps you need to make the U.S. less formidable. Perhaps the Constitutional Convention fails and the Confederation eventually breaks up into smaller political units.
Grey Wolf
Donor
Well, one way may be to have Iturbide's monarchy bed down - there was one moment when Santa Anna as a rebel was routed, and if he had been pursued the imperial troops would probably have swept up both him and Guadalupe Victoria ham-stringing the revolt, and allowing the regime to settle down.
Santa Anna, though a great Mexican hero and a master at rescuing a bad situation temporarily, was as great a villain, and a genius at managing to lose eventually. Remove him completely and this allows the Mexican Army and political scene to develop less along the line of banderos and more along those which were intended
Tejas may still be a problem under Iturbide, but there would be no clash of politics versus military strategy as there was under Santa Anna and a better strategy could well be followed, both in the political longterm and whenever it came to an armed clash
As for the USA they remained neutral during OTL's 1835 and I can see no reason why they would intervene in an ATL Tejas, even if the rebels are crushed
Grey Wolf
Santa Anna, though a great Mexican hero and a master at rescuing a bad situation temporarily, was as great a villain, and a genius at managing to lose eventually. Remove him completely and this allows the Mexican Army and political scene to develop less along the line of banderos and more along those which were intended
Tejas may still be a problem under Iturbide, but there would be no clash of politics versus military strategy as there was under Santa Anna and a better strategy could well be followed, both in the political longterm and whenever it came to an armed clash
As for the USA they remained neutral during OTL's 1835 and I can see no reason why they would intervene in an ATL Tejas, even if the rebels are crushed
Grey Wolf
David S Poepoe
Banned
bill_bruno said:
This POD would technically be out of bounds for the challenge as stated above. I slightly disagree with Grey Wolf's observation of the US remaining neutral in 1835. Osprey Books' The Alamo gives the impression that the US was fairly involved in the Texian Revolt, tho not at the official level. The news coverage certainly was sensational and help whip up more American support. American volunteers probably increased in number following the siege of the Alamo.
What I think is necessary is to completely bypass the likelihood of rebellion in Tejas. Mexico should make itself the New World destination for Catholics leaving Europe. Settle white Catholics, like the Irish and Italians, in the Tejas, New Mexico and California territories and you'll create a buffer thats filled with people the Protestant Americans won't want to annex.
Excerpted from "A Student's History of of North America" by Alfonse McAfferty, Columbus, 1940. editors note, The "North American War" refers to a war in the 1860's and early 1870's stemming from the breakup of the United States of America (actually a small part of an alternate history of the world since 1862 I've been working on over the past few years)
...The events of the North American War were instrumental in the gradual rise of the Mexican Empire as a regional power, albeit as a subordinate party to France. This was directly tied to the breakup of the United States, the demise of the US Monroe Doctrine, and resultant instability in the Confederacy. The Emperor Maximilian, who was installed by France in 1864, had been extremely unpopular with the vast majority of Mexicans except for the small Creole elite. Had the United States been victorious in the War of Southern Independence, it is highly unlikely his rule would have survived.
However, with the recovery of New Mexico as provided by the Treaty of Paris, Maximilian suddenly became a symbol of Mexican resurgence against the hated gringos del norte. Mexican nationalists among the Creole and Mestizo upper and middle classes flocked to his support. Maximilian adroitly exploited this sentiment, promising to recover even more northern lost territories. Always something of a romanticist, he also drew upon Mexico’s ancient past as a source of his authority, and promoted himself as a savior to the Indian lower classes as well. His most clever moves lay in appointing the Oaxaca lawyer and liberal activist Benito Juarez as his Interior Minister and in initiating a series of modest land reforms in central Mexico. This served to blunt liberal/revolutionary opposition to his rule. To compensate conservative Creole landlords, he offered to provide them with new encomiendas carved out of the new northern territories. Other, more symbolic, elements of this nativist movement included a return to Mexico City’s Aztec name “Mexico-Tenochtitlan”, and the elevation of Nahuatl (the aboriginal central Mexican language still spoken by many Indians) to an equal status with Spanish as an official language of the Mexican Empire. Following the unexpected death of his first wife Carlotta in 1875, Maximilian took an Nahuatl-speaking Indian wife and she bore him a son in 1877, who was named Michael-Friedrich-Cuauhtemoc, in memory of the last Aztec emperor and leader of the final Aztec resistence to Cortez. In 1899, at the death of Maximilian, he assumed the throne as Emperor Cuauhtemoc II.
Cuauhtemoc continued the nativist trend of his father, but began to alienate the upper and middle class Creoles by increasing the scope of land reforms. In 1910 he also established the first elected Mexican congress since the days of the old republic, and sought to remold Mexico as a modern constitutional autocracy, along the lines of France. Childless and unmarried (a fact which led to considerable speculation about his virility) Cuauhtemoc sought to provide Mexico with a worthy successor to himself through electoral or administrative processes. In this, he was resisted by his younger brother, Felix-Johann, who felt his rightful place on the throne of Mexico would be denied. Felix-Johann was closely identified with some of the more reactionary elements of Mexican society, and in 1914, he and his supporters attempted to assassinate Cuauhtemoc in a violent coup attempt at a military parade in Mexico-Tenochtitlan. Cuauhtemoc escaped serious injury, but the palace coup eventually expanded into a full scale civil war. Concerned by the instability in Mexico, the French intervened forcefully to support Cuauhtemoc in return for his pledge to keep imperial secession within the royal family upon his death. Felix-Johann was exiled to Argentina and his 10-year old cousin, Eduardo-Moctezuma was named Prince Regent and heir to the throne. A side effect of this civil war was the drastic increase in the size of the French army stationed in Mexico, which proved to be quite useful upon the outbreak of war with the US and Britain.
In many respects, the Mexican Empire remained throughout its history supported by the French, who had since the 1870's stationed a large and potent army along Mexico’s new northern frontier with the United States. This army, supplemented by Mexican forces, came in handy as the Confederate States began to disintegrate in the 1880's. A short, quick invasion brought Texas back into the Mexican fold, along with the former Confederate Indian territories. Only forceful US diplomatic action prohibited additional invasions of Confederate Louisiana and newly independent Florida. The US, however, was unable to resist additional French/Mexican expansion to the south, and by 1910, all of the formerly independent republics in Central America, as well as Colombia, had been brought under nominal French control, either as protectorates or outright colonies.
By the outbreak of the World War, Mexico, with French assistance, was on its way to becoming a major economic power in its own right. Joint operation of the Trans-Columbia Canal with France provided a steady source of income to Mexican coffers, and the discovery and subsequent development of the Texas oil and gas fields promised to radically transform the Mexican economy. Also important was the discovery of the world’s only commercially exploitable deposits of nonflammable helium gas, which, with the rapid development of military and naval aerodirigible airships after 1900, soon grew to be of immeasurable military significance. With the outbreak of war in 1922, both the US and British Empire fought many sharp battles with themselves and against the Mexican Empire to gain control of these strategic assets.
...The events of the North American War were instrumental in the gradual rise of the Mexican Empire as a regional power, albeit as a subordinate party to France. This was directly tied to the breakup of the United States, the demise of the US Monroe Doctrine, and resultant instability in the Confederacy. The Emperor Maximilian, who was installed by France in 1864, had been extremely unpopular with the vast majority of Mexicans except for the small Creole elite. Had the United States been victorious in the War of Southern Independence, it is highly unlikely his rule would have survived.
However, with the recovery of New Mexico as provided by the Treaty of Paris, Maximilian suddenly became a symbol of Mexican resurgence against the hated gringos del norte. Mexican nationalists among the Creole and Mestizo upper and middle classes flocked to his support. Maximilian adroitly exploited this sentiment, promising to recover even more northern lost territories. Always something of a romanticist, he also drew upon Mexico’s ancient past as a source of his authority, and promoted himself as a savior to the Indian lower classes as well. His most clever moves lay in appointing the Oaxaca lawyer and liberal activist Benito Juarez as his Interior Minister and in initiating a series of modest land reforms in central Mexico. This served to blunt liberal/revolutionary opposition to his rule. To compensate conservative Creole landlords, he offered to provide them with new encomiendas carved out of the new northern territories. Other, more symbolic, elements of this nativist movement included a return to Mexico City’s Aztec name “Mexico-Tenochtitlan”, and the elevation of Nahuatl (the aboriginal central Mexican language still spoken by many Indians) to an equal status with Spanish as an official language of the Mexican Empire. Following the unexpected death of his first wife Carlotta in 1875, Maximilian took an Nahuatl-speaking Indian wife and she bore him a son in 1877, who was named Michael-Friedrich-Cuauhtemoc, in memory of the last Aztec emperor and leader of the final Aztec resistence to Cortez. In 1899, at the death of Maximilian, he assumed the throne as Emperor Cuauhtemoc II.
Cuauhtemoc continued the nativist trend of his father, but began to alienate the upper and middle class Creoles by increasing the scope of land reforms. In 1910 he also established the first elected Mexican congress since the days of the old republic, and sought to remold Mexico as a modern constitutional autocracy, along the lines of France. Childless and unmarried (a fact which led to considerable speculation about his virility) Cuauhtemoc sought to provide Mexico with a worthy successor to himself through electoral or administrative processes. In this, he was resisted by his younger brother, Felix-Johann, who felt his rightful place on the throne of Mexico would be denied. Felix-Johann was closely identified with some of the more reactionary elements of Mexican society, and in 1914, he and his supporters attempted to assassinate Cuauhtemoc in a violent coup attempt at a military parade in Mexico-Tenochtitlan. Cuauhtemoc escaped serious injury, but the palace coup eventually expanded into a full scale civil war. Concerned by the instability in Mexico, the French intervened forcefully to support Cuauhtemoc in return for his pledge to keep imperial secession within the royal family upon his death. Felix-Johann was exiled to Argentina and his 10-year old cousin, Eduardo-Moctezuma was named Prince Regent and heir to the throne. A side effect of this civil war was the drastic increase in the size of the French army stationed in Mexico, which proved to be quite useful upon the outbreak of war with the US and Britain.
In many respects, the Mexican Empire remained throughout its history supported by the French, who had since the 1870's stationed a large and potent army along Mexico’s new northern frontier with the United States. This army, supplemented by Mexican forces, came in handy as the Confederate States began to disintegrate in the 1880's. A short, quick invasion brought Texas back into the Mexican fold, along with the former Confederate Indian territories. Only forceful US diplomatic action prohibited additional invasions of Confederate Louisiana and newly independent Florida. The US, however, was unable to resist additional French/Mexican expansion to the south, and by 1910, all of the formerly independent republics in Central America, as well as Colombia, had been brought under nominal French control, either as protectorates or outright colonies.
By the outbreak of the World War, Mexico, with French assistance, was on its way to becoming a major economic power in its own right. Joint operation of the Trans-Columbia Canal with France provided a steady source of income to Mexican coffers, and the discovery and subsequent development of the Texas oil and gas fields promised to radically transform the Mexican economy. Also important was the discovery of the world’s only commercially exploitable deposits of nonflammable helium gas, which, with the rapid development of military and naval aerodirigible airships after 1900, soon grew to be of immeasurable military significance. With the outbreak of war in 1922, both the US and British Empire fought many sharp battles with themselves and against the Mexican Empire to gain control of these strategic assets.
David S Poepoe said:
Ouch!! Serves me right for not reading the fine print.
Okay, how about a big British win in the War of 1812. Victories at Plattsburgh, Lake Champlain and New Orleans. New England seceeds and the British take Louisiana and the lower Mississippi up to Vicksburg. This retards U.S. expansion.
David S Poepoe
Banned
zoomar said:
Interesting. So Juarez was never in rebellion to begin with since his refusal to repay foreign loans, even temporarily, predate French involvement. Maximilian embracing the 'Native Mexican' culture seems - idealistic to completely non realistic for the time period. The 'former Confederate Indian territories' - which I guess means OTL Oklahoma, was never a portion of Mexican territory - it was part of the Louisiana Purchase. However, it just seems to me that the 'old order' of Mexico, the conservatives that asked Maximilian to become Emperor in the first place are just still in power and one isn't going to get the changes necessary to advance the nation.
David S Poepoe
Banned
bill_bruno said:
I think the POD is to be Mexico specific. Your suggested POD doesn't necessarily mean that Mexico wouldn't just remain a sort of Third World nation.
U.S. prerequitie
You may be right on your first point, however I think that crippling the U.S. is a prerequisite for a Mexican superpower. Even a stronger settlement of pro-Mexicans in Texas and California wouldn't stop them from falling into the sphere of a U.S. economy running at OTL strengh (I believe the geography favors trade routes from the U.S. to these areas).
David S Poepoe said:
You may be right on your first point, however I think that crippling the U.S. is a prerequisite for a Mexican superpower. Even a stronger settlement of pro-Mexicans in Texas and California wouldn't stop them from falling into the sphere of a U.S. economy running at OTL strengh (I believe the geography favors trade routes from the U.S. to these areas).
David S Poepoe said:
Keep in mid what you read was part of a much larger history.
Note, I never referred to Juarez as having been president. Other weak liberal governments got in the loan problems causing French intervention. In this TL, he was always on the outside and was eventually coopted by the Conservatives
I have read that, in fact, Maximillian did have romantic fantasies about Mexico's prehispanic past and being loved by his Mexican subjects. I've just taken this to an extreme - but one which is not all that strange in the Romantic late 19th century among european-raised aristocrats.
Yes, "the former Confederate Indian Territories" are OTL Oklahoma and I know this was never part of Mexico. In this TL, however, Texas secedes from the Confederacy in 1881 and occupies Indian Territory while the weak Richmond government dithers. Thus when Mexico reconquers Texas, it gets all of it, including "Oklahoma"
You are right, the "old order" rules Mexico, but has successfully co-opted most radicalism through cosmetic measures (the nativist movement) and by being sucessfully nationalistic in its relationships with the USA and its various southern sucessor states.
For what it's worth the history in this ATL is generally one where autocratic and aristocratic governments are more successful, and even normally democratic countries, such as the USA and GB, are less democratic than in OTL.
Maybe I'll post more of this if there's interest.
Grey Wolf
Donor
David S Poepoe said:
I would be somewhat dubious at trying to hark back to a romantic picture of the Aztecs, also. OTL however, Maximilian adopted a different but analogous romanticism in harking back to the first empire of the Iturbides and adopting two of his grandsons as his heirs. That seems more realistic to me.
I also cannot see even Texas being retaken, let alone the idea of Florida being on the cards. There are just too many 'Anglos' (and Germans etc, basically non-Mexicans in general). There may well be some scope for retaking the following :-
- the lands ceded in the Gadsden Purchase
- Southern California based on San Diego which Mexico had always viewed as part of Baja not Alta
- some of the New Mexico territory itself
Regarding the Indians, the Comanche ranged across Tejas in the past, and there are Indians in the New Mexico territories. There is also the possibility of a Mormon spread here, following the weakening of the Union in defeat against the South
Grey Wolf
David S Poepoe
Banned
Grey Wolf said:
I've got to admit that drawing upon some sort of Aztec connection to nativize Mexico would be a tremendous flop with the Catholic Church and the overwhelming Catholic population. The native indians may speak Nahautl, but they certainly do practice the same religion. Also what was known about the Aztecs at the time (the 1860s) was not at all a good example to follow or use as a guide.
Grey Wolf said:
In the TL, the New Mexico Territory (Arizona and New Mexico) is ceded to Mexico in the Treaty of Paris which ended the North American War (which grew out of the CSA war of independence). Great Britain has been at war with the US and both they and France are in a position to force unexepcted territorial concessions from the USA in the west (the British get much of the northern plains and northern Rockies territories. California remains in the USA, as does Utah/Nevada and Colorado, linking the east and west coasts by a narrow and strategically weak corridor. Beginning with the Texas secession, the CSA basically self-destructs over the last 1/4 of the 19th century. Florida leaves and other states continually threaten to.
Speaking of Indians, the British establish the Lakota Territory in what had been the northen US plains territories and foster a Native American colony to keep pressure on the US. The experiment is not particularly sucessful, but the Empire does get out of it a close alliance with the Sioux, who become like the Gurkha's - a favored tribal warrior group useful in putting down rebellions elsewhere in the Empire.
Incidentally, the success of the southern rebellion creates a precedent within the remaining US making secession movements over single issues more popular - and the US government less willing to try to surpress them if they can enter into appropriate treaty agreements with the newly independent entities. One (Utah) is violently surpressed because of the strategic importance of Utah in the "land bridge" to California, the other (New York City) is tolerated when suitable financial and security issues are resolved.
And , hey, I just think Aztecs are a cooler thing to hearken back too than Iturbide... and we're not talking about real Aztecs, but the sanitized butterfly sacrificing poet priests architects of late 19th and early 20th century Mexican romanticism
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My {Years Without Summer} TL has a Mexico that holds on too Tejas, NM, & south California Due to a major migration of Indians & FreeBlacks into the Areas before the Whites have a chance. It also holds Central America Due to British control of Pamama.
Unless the Mexican revolution is closer to the French model, the inbedded power struture in New Spain, almost gaurintied Mexico 3rd world status.
Unless the Mexican revolution is closer to the French model, the inbedded power struture in New Spain, almost gaurintied Mexico 3rd world status.