Mexico becomes independent in 1808?

[Vinization]

Following the collapse of Spanish authority in its American colonies thanks to the Peninsular War, an attempt was made in the Viceroyalty of New Spain to create an autonomous junta presided by the imcumbent viceroy, José de Iturrigaray. Unfortunately, while this plan was supported by the local elite, it was vehemently opposed by the peninsulares, who deposed Iturrigaray in September 1808 and installed Pedro de Garibay, an 80 year old military officer, as their puppet.

But what if Iturrigaray defeated the coup? I assume he wouldn't have much difficulty stamping out the opposition to him, since he was the rightful viceroy and already had the support of the criollos as well as the cabildo of Mexico City. This would make Mexico independent from Spain in all but name 13 years ahead of schedule, and in a much less violent way. Said process would probably also not be led by the figures who did it IOTL (Hidalgo, Morelos, Allende, Iturbide and so on) but by people like Francisco Primo de Verdad and Melchior de Talamantes, who were imprisoned after the coup and died as a result IOTL.

Thoughts?

 

[Wendell]

The British and the Americans would both go along with this once border issues were resolved, which one presumes would be necessarily amicably. Mexico becomes a conservative, Catholic republic dominated by Iberians of local birth. If/when Spain gets freed of Bonapartism, it will have to accept the loss of Mexico as a fait accompli but has more resources to throw at reconquering South America.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Less violent divorce, if it can be achieved, would drastically change Mexico's fortunes potential. You still need to address the gaping chasm of the haves and the have not, which is a herculean task. But at least you are not starting from rubble.

 

[Slime_blob]

Juntas more successful in Latin America I see

 

[Slime_blob]

This guy probably becomes a merchant, might be a rich business tycoon as his mom has connections and close to the governor of his province.

 

[Slime_blob]

The Napoleon of the West will not be the Napoleon of the West, rather he might be the Sun King of the West or instead the King of the West if he becomes successful on his business venture and bulds up a tycoon and a ginormous business empire

 

[jycee]

I once considered starting a TL with exactly this scenario (ended up writing a Mexican Victory TL instead, to make the end result more familiar).

Iturrigaray was very popular with the local elite. So if Iturrigaray manages to succeed it is likely to stick. By the time the Peninsular War ends, Spain will have to recognize Mexico as de facto independent and negotiate from there.

On the other hand, Mexico will likely not be a Republic; like in OTL Iturrigaray’s best bet is to declare his junta to be acting in the name of the Bourbon kings. Invite the Spanish monarchy to rule from Mexico and act only as regent until then. If the Bourbon’s reject Iturrigaray’s proposal, Mexico could become a republic or offer the crown to someone else. Iturrigaray himself could be a good candidate (a much better one than Agustin de Iturbide), but it might be best (in the short term) to look for a European royal.

The biggest hic-up in the plan is Iturrigaray’s age; he was 66 in 1808. In OTL he died in 1815 (at 73) after years of imprisonment in Spain. I’d assume he could live a few more years in OTL. But even in this case, the nascent (and likely still unrecognized) Mexico would lose its leader right as Spain is regaining is strength and ability to reconquer its rebellious colonies.

Mexico’s fate would really depend on what happens between 1815 and 1820-ish, when Spain could have the opportunity at reconquest while it figures out a succession plan.

 

[Vinization]

The biggest hic-up in the plan is Iturrigaray’s age; he was 66 in 1808. In OTL he died in 1815 (at 73) after years of imprisonment in Spain. I’d assume he could live a few more years in OTL. But even in this case, the nascent (and likely still unrecognized) Mexico would lose its leader right as Spain is regaining is strength and ability to reconquer its rebellious colonies.

Well, if the painting below is any indication, then Iturrigaray could be succeeded by a son if he becomes an emperor or anything like that.

Mexico will have no shortage of capable military leaders either (Allende, Morelos, Guerrero and so on, heck, maybe even Iturbide too).

 

[jycee]

Well, if the painting below is any indication, then Iturrigaray could be succeeded by a son if he becomes an emperor or anything like that.

Mexico will have no shortage of capable military leaders either (Allende, Morelos, Guerrero and so on, heck, maybe even Iturbide too).

I've tried to find some sources on his kids, but the information is surprisingly sparse (so we can get creative). Two things do stand out:

• It appears that his kids did settle into Mexican life post-Independence: https://gw.geneanet.org/sanchiz?lang=en&n=iturrigaray+arostegui&oc=0&p=jose (no marriages are listed, but they do have Mexican god-children and served as witnesses to marriages in Mexico City). But they seem to fall into obscurity.
• It also appears that Iturrigaray had kids way late in life (as depicted in the painting). I could only find dates for Vicente (the youngest) who was born in 1802, when his father would have been 60 years old. Jose (the eldest) would have been 22 years old in 1808 had he been born the year his parents got married. Judging from the picture he was likely a little younger.

The Mexican brass might have some issue betting on an untested 20-something after Jose de Iturrigaray Sr. dies. But if Jose II proves his worth fighting off any attempt to reconquer by the Spanish (or a rebellion elsewhere) they might give him the chance. Jose II would be ruling at the behest of the elite. And if he keeps his father's relatively modest lifestyle and stays out of military affairs you might have the recipe for a long-lasting and stable "reign". (I am seeing some parallels with Pedro II of Brazil here).

 

[Wendell]

At that moment I just don't think a monarchy is likely.

 

[Vinization]

I've tried to find some sources on his kids, but the information is surprisingly sparse (so we can get creative).

You managed to find more than I did, which was a big fat zero. I am surprised they returned to Mexico, though.

 

[Slime_blob]

Well, if the painting below is any indication, then Iturrigaray could be succeeded by a son if he becomes an emperor or anything like that.

Mexico will have no shortage of capable military leaders either (Allende, Morelos, Guerrero and so on, heck, maybe even Iturbide too).

Guerrero seems to be the only general who is young, as Iturbide seems to be old. Definitely the next generation of officers would be smaller as no Iturbide political appointees, and no war of independence. This would result into a less experienced top brass but let's say Mexico is successful and stable, a more well armed trained equipped supplied modernized and professional army instead of some kind of ragtag army Santa Anna will always raise once there is a threat that is barely armed, trained paid equipped and supplied, might be even navy.

 

[Wendell]

This is a good potential POD for a Mexican canal across Nicaragua, assuming that the Audiencia de Guatemala joins Mexico in its independence as was the case in OTL for about a dozen years.

 

[Slime_blob]

This is a good potential POD for a Mexican canal across Nicaragua, assuming that the Audiencia de Guatemala joins Mexico in its independence as was the case in OTL for about a dozen years.

Iirc the Liberals dominated the kingdom Guatemala that's why they declared independence. And once they see an opportunity imo they will secced as there are movements already iirc or I'm right

 

[LNSS]

At that moment I just don't think a monarchy is likely.

It's the opposite, IOTL the coupists accused Iturrigaray specifically of wanting to crown himself King of Mexico.

 

[LNSS]

This is what Iturrigaray was accused of after being deposed:

First season.
I. Sordid trade negotiations imputed to Iturrigaray.
II. Simulated traffic with English and neutral ships with English passage.
III. Destination negotiations, and other excesses
of greed
IV. Negotiation on the role intended for it»
cigars
V. Id. in the distribution of quicksilver.
Second season.
SAW. Disguised behavior of Iturrigaray when receiving
the news of the Escorial process, and his lukewarmness when he learned of the advent of Ferdinand to the throne of
Spain.
V il. His belated dispositions to solemnize with
public rejoicings this news, and its haste
to give part of the decrees of Murat of the two of
May, and the occurrences of that day with praise and signs of joy.
VII. That he refused to manifest in view of the
abdications of Bayonne the resolution of the agreement of
not recognize Murat's government.
IX. Having supported the representations of the Civil Cabildo of Mexico, which tended towards independence.
X. That he did not want to recognize the meeting of Seville.
XI. Opinions of the same viceroy expressed
urging that Fernando would not return
seventh, and the impossibility of resisting Napoleon.
XII. Having used the most exquisite means to capture the popular aura, while threatening to remove several ministers from their jobs.
XIII. He wanted to monopolize the gazette of
Mexico, abrogating the revision of this newspaper.
XIV. That he was the author of the project on congress
His outrageous promotions, his arbitrary flow provisions, and his call for
troops to the capital with the disarmament of others, adopted at the time when he tried to renounce the
ringing
XVI. To have retained since our insurrection
public funds without remitting them to Spain, to use them in America.
XVII. That he kept the dispatch in his possession, or
appointment of the Duke of Berg, and that allowed
yell , long live José I.
Epoch

 

[Slime_blob]

The only reason why central America joined them otl because law and order broke down and fearing like anarchy and there is already a Mexican army under Urrea right in the border to march to their republic. That's why the provisional government in Guatemala city just signed that they're gonna be annexed by Mexico. Obviously that did not went well as they continued their republican movements alongside stuff

 

[Vinization]

The British and the Americans would both go along with this once border issues were resolved, which one presumes would be necessarily amicably. Mexico becomes a conservative, Catholic republic dominated by Iberians of local birth. If/when Spain gets freed of Bonapartism, it will have to accept the loss of Mexico as a fait accompli but has more resources to throw at reconquering South America.

The independist groups in the other colonies may be energized by Mexico's example, though.

 

[LNSS]

The independist groups in the other colonies may be energized by Mexico's example, though.

This. It basically gives a clear blueprint for criollos everywhere on what to do.

 

[Wendell]

It's the opposite, IOTL the coupists accused Iturrigaray specifically of wanting to crown himself King of Mexico.

John Adams and Andrew Jackson were accused of monarchism. That does not mean that they set out to be kings.

The only reason why central America joined them otl because law and order broke down and fearing like anarchy and there is already a Mexican army under Urrea right in the border to march to their republic. That's why the provisional government in Guatemala city just signed that they're gonna be annexed by Mexico. Obviously that did not went well as they continued their republican movements alongside stuff

And how far along are those same movements more than a dozen years earlier?

The independist groups in the other colonies may be energized by Mexico's example, though.

Is being more energized all that it takes though? I doubt that "more energy" among rebels is going to trump Spain's added advantages from not fighting Mexico.