How would Mexico have turned out had Pancho Villa and Zapata won the Revolution? What would be the after effects and relations with other nations? Especially after the Russia Revolution?
Mexican Revolution: Pancho Villa and Zapata win?
- Thread starter Reisen Storm
- Start date
Neither of them really wanted power. Especially Zapata who in that photo refused to sit on the throne.
They actually wanted to install General Felipe Angeles as President. He was very close to Villa, and had won the admiration of Zapata in the South.
Depending the POD it’s possible victory would have led to the installation of General Eulalio Gutiérrez as President. He was the dejure (if not de facto) leader of the convention forces until January 1915. However Villa apparently hated him to the point of ordering his execution.
To have them take power you’d need them to win the fighting in 1915. There are a few ways that to do that:
1) Have Villa retain his pro-US stance and contacts. For the first part of the war Villa was very close to the US. The press loves him and he even had a Hollywood film crew follow him around. One of the reasons the Villa’s Convention forces lost is the US backed Carranza’s Constitionalist side in 1915 and literally gave them the city of Veracruz, alongside copious quantities of arms.
2) Have something happen to General Obregon. One of the few things the Constitionalists had going for them was the brilliance of General Obregon. If he either dies, or doesn’t back Carranza (which isn’t actually that unlikely) then Villa probably wins.
3) No defeat at Celaya. This was the point at which Villa went from winning the second civil war to full on rout. The battle was a trap by Obregon. He knew Villa used outdated tactics such as massed cavalry charges, and so encouraged him to do so at modern defensive formations. Villas larger force was so completely devastated that only about 1/4 made it out. If Villa doesn’t fall for the trap, or Obregon messes up somehow, then you probably have a Convention victory.
They actually wanted to install General Felipe Angeles as President. He was very close to Villa, and had won the admiration of Zapata in the South.
Depending the POD it’s possible victory would have led to the installation of General Eulalio Gutiérrez as President. He was the dejure (if not de facto) leader of the convention forces until January 1915. However Villa apparently hated him to the point of ordering his execution.
To have them take power you’d need them to win the fighting in 1915. There are a few ways that to do that:
1) Have Villa retain his pro-US stance and contacts. For the first part of the war Villa was very close to the US. The press loves him and he even had a Hollywood film crew follow him around. One of the reasons the Villa’s Convention forces lost is the US backed Carranza’s Constitionalist side in 1915 and literally gave them the city of Veracruz, alongside copious quantities of arms.
2) Have something happen to General Obregon. One of the few things the Constitionalists had going for them was the brilliance of General Obregon. If he either dies, or doesn’t back Carranza (which isn’t actually that unlikely) then Villa probably wins.
3) No defeat at Celaya. This was the point at which Villa went from winning the second civil war to full on rout. The battle was a trap by Obregon. He knew Villa used outdated tactics such as massed cavalry charges, and so encouraged him to do so at modern defensive formations. Villas larger force was so completely devastated that only about 1/4 made it out. If Villa doesn’t fall for the trap, or Obregon messes up somehow, then you probably have a Convention victory.
Poorly, but I’m not sure their is much they can do about it. The US will try and protect business interests but I doubt they would intervene militarily.
The Convention forces themselves weren’t super unified. And there is always a danger of a third round of the civil war.
They were certainly to the left of Carranza, but they were interested more in radical land reform than actual socialism. I don’t think Convention Mexico would be anymore radical than Cárdenas was in the 1930’s.