Mexican Empire

Great idea, one of my favorite personal ideas actually, but there are a lot of flaws in this AH.

I can't see a Mexico which had expelled American settlers winning a war against the United States and then taking territory from the US but allowing Americans to settle in the conquered lands. That simply is riddiculous. Also, the territorial concessions are somewhat bizarre. At that time Florida was basically empty swampland with only an Indian population. It was the least populous state in the Union at the time of the Civil War, IIRC. I don't know why Mexico would want it. But if they did, they likely would also want West Florida, which had historically been a part of New Spain, and contained the valuable port of Mobile, which was a major cotton trading port (as well as slave-trading, which Mexico would have disliked). I also don't see why they would take Nebraska Territory, Indian territory, or Colorado. They were of little strategic value except as a buffer for California, which was sparsely populated, and I don't think the Mexican government would have wanted to try to subjugate the Indian tribes unless those tribes had fought for them in the war.

Also, without the fall of Agustin I, the Central American Federation very likely never would have left Mexico. They were always part of New Spain and I can't see how the retention of the empire would have driven them to break away at any time. Panama, on the other hand, was ALWAYS a part of New Granada. It was Colombian until 1901, I believe, and I think it was American influence that caused it to secede from Colombia. I also highly doubt that Peru, which had always been a separate viceroyalty from Colombia and which was fairly powerful, would join Colombia. The people of Peru are largely indigenous, which is not the case for Gran Colomiba, which is mostly mestizo. I think a Peruvo-Bolivian state is much more likely.

Colombia might invade Costa Rica, yes, but it would be invading a part of Mexican territory directly. The end of the American War might be the best time to do it, but there is no Central American Confederation as an excuse. I don't see the Central American Conflict would happen though. There was really nothing for Colombia to gain in Central America.

Without the votes of Texas, Louisiana, and Florida, I don't know how strong Southern interests in Congress would be (particularly the loss of 6 senators). I don't know if there would have been any secession of the southern states, just unresolved sectional tensions that might carry through to the present day. If the war did happen, the fact that Mexico was an ally of the US and that New Orleans would not need to be blockaded would make the war much more difficult for the CSA. I can see no way that even a rump CSA would survive without being drawn back into the Union.

That's just a few of the early criticisms of this timeline I have. It's a good effort, but it definitely would need some work to be plausible, even with the butterfly effect.
 
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