Messing with Italian surrender-

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Threefold question-

Is there any way that Mussolini could politically survive military defeats in Sicily and Africa, consequently aborting Italian surrender initiatives? Is there any way a post-Mussolini government would stay in the war?

If there is no Italian surrender initiative (which felt like a gift dropped in their lap at the time), what would they feel like doing with the year after August 1943, as they had not, in OTL, decided their next move before or during the Sicily campaign.

Finally a question about OTL, what was the cost/benefit to Germany of taking over north Italy and the Italian occupied portions of France, Yugoslavia, Greece and Albania?

An initial tally of the costs:

Maintaining occupation troops over a broader area
Partisan attacks & attendant losses
Maintaining forces to oppose Allied offensive & potential Allied offensives
Losses of troops to Allied operations.
Diversion of command attention.
Exposure of southern territories to allied bombing.

An initial tally of benefits:

Unified Axis command with Italians out of picture
Ability to extract labor and material resources without a political or diplomatic restraint
Good defensive terrain
Diversion of allied attention from the west and north, for awhile at least
 
The post Stalingrad loss of the Italian army in the Soviet Union probably hurt Mussolini more than any one particular defeat, avoiding that should help.
 
Threefold question-

Is there any way that Mussolini could politically survive military defeats in Sicily and Africa, consequently aborting Italian surrender initiatives? Is there any way a post-Mussolini government would stay in the war?

Unlikely.

If there is no Italian surrender initiative (which felt like a gift dropped in their lap at the time), what would they feel like doing with the year after August 1943, as they had not, in OTL, decided their next move before or during the Sicily campaign.

I suppose "they" is the Western Allies here. If so, the Italian surrender was no unexpected gift. The whole Husky operation was part of a strategic plan, confirmed at the Trident conference in Washington, to force Italy out of the war in 1943. It was deemed that that could be achieved before 1944, either by continuing landing operations after Sicily, or by intensive strategic bombing alone. It was also deemed that clearing the Mediterranean waters would be necessary for Anvil (later Dragoon).

Note that just the beginning of relatively moderate strategic bombing over Rome had a significant impact on the Italian decision to oust Mussolini. Say three months of sustained raids like the ones hitting Germany? Italy kicks Mussolini and seeks terms.
 
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