"Meiji" Shogunate Japan?

[Keperry]

What I mean by this oxymoron is: if the shogunate forces had won the Boshin War, or if the Boshin War and Meiji Restoration had never happened, would it still be possible for Japan as a shogunate to modernize and become a great power as it did in OTL? And if so, how might its politics, economy, foreign policy, etc. be different from Imperial Japan's?

Alternatively: instead of abolishing the shogun and (nominally) restoring imperial authority, would it have been possible for the Satsuma or Choshu to instead take the title of shogun for themselves and replace the Tokugawa Shogunate with their own Shimazu or Mori Shogunate, like the Tokugawa had (indirectly) done to the Ashikaga before them? And if so, same questions as above apply.

 

[Phalamus]

What I mean by this oxymoron is: if the shogunate forces had won the Boshin War, or if the Boshin War and Meiji Restoration had never happened, would it still be possible for Japan as a shogunate to modernize and become a great power as it did in OTL? And if so, how might its politics, economy, foreign policy, etc. be different from Imperial Japan's?

Yes, it could definitely happen.

For a POD, I would go with Yoshinobu becoming shogun in 1858 instead of Iesada. With an adult and rather competent leader, the Shogunate would be much strenghened. Then, the next step would be to have Choushu do something stupid (or have the shogunate frame them) and get an imperial edict to legitimise a punitive expedition. Unlike OTL, this needs to finish them off completely, so no negotiated truce. Then, you pretty much just need to repeat the process for Satsuma, and the smaller domains would probably all just fall in line after that.

Japan was definitely modernizing during the last years of a shogunate. It had the begginings of a modern navy, "western learning" had taken off, and administrative reforms were underway. The vast majority of the Japanese elite of the time had accepted the need for westernization, so what clans exactly hold power doesn't really matter much in my opinion. Now, with that said, I think it's fair to posit that revolutionary changes are generally better and reformist ones at effecting fast and radical changes for the simple fact that they displace much of the old elite (which presumably has a vested interest in preserving the status quo), but if the Tokugawa achieve a definitive military victory against the western clans, they probably can force through whatever they want because there will be no one left capable of overthrowing them.

So, what happens in this scenario? Something very close to OTL, at least in the short term. The shogunate would abolish the feudal system and the samurai class, introduce a system of centralised taxation in currency, create national army of peasant recruits and eventually reform government according to somewhat western lines. The main difference in that Japan would remain a diarchy, and unlike the Emperor IOTL, the shogun wouldn't be just a powerless figurehead (at least not in the beggining) but the actual ruler of the country. In the long run... it's a bit harder to predict. A victorious shogunate would have pretty much the same concerns as the OTL Meiji government, being very worried about western enchroachment, but also about China and Korea. But on the other hand, a lot of things that happened in Japan from that point onwards can atleast partially be traced back to Meiji period ideology, which would be completely different here (no State Shinto, for example, and the figure of the Emperor would be much less prominent in propaganda...).

Alternatively: instead of abolishing the shogun and (nominally) restoring imperial authority, would it have been possible for the Satsuma or Choshu to instead take the title of shogun for themselves and replace the Tokugawa Shogunate with their own Shimazu or Mori Shogunate, like the Tokugawa had (indirectly) done to the Ashikaga before them? And if so, same questions as above apply.

No, I don't think this would have been possible seeing and neither Choushu nor Satsuma were strong enough to achieve it on their own. The OTL revolution was made possible by an equal partnership of the two (which, btw, would have been unthinkable only a few years before it happened, as the two clans did not traditionally see eye to eye) plus riding on the whole sonno joi movement.

 

[Paradoxer]

The shogunate could have honestly chose to modernize multiple points over last centuries or during Edo era but often chose not to and focused on isolation. For a pre industrial society Japanese have always been rather advanced and urbanized partly due to geographic island nature. The shogunate will stay more “traditional” then westernizing compared to imperial system culturally and socially. Still adopts western technology and reorganize political system.

Also samurai likely stay at least a highly respected class and group with special individual privileges but nowhere near that of past generations. They just get dominance and preference along with seniority within army along with majority of officer or higher ranks. They also make up standing army and police force while lower class conscripts or recruits fill support and naval roles(larger marine force with specialized army). Cossacks stayed a thing in Imperial Russia the samurai who support shogun likely retain more of their status or become like even more militarized junkers.

Korea would still be aimed of conquest especially with raw resources there vital for industrial production.

They could also somehow break compromise between emperor and shogun on governance and power between two along with responsibilities.

 

[Phalamus]

The shogunate will stay more “traditional” then westernizing compared to imperial system culturally and socially. Still adopts western technology and reorganize political system.

I honestly don't see much room to "stay more traditional" (at least any more so than OTL) while still adopting western technology and forms of government. Japan retained quite a lot of its traditional culture in the face of an insurmountable western hegemony, and from the moment Japan opened itself to western trade and learning, western cultural diffusion was inevitable. It's also definitely not true that shogunate elites were more hostile to westernization than the opposing faction (in fact, if anything, during the 1860s, it was the exact opposite).

Also samurai likely stay at least a highly respected class and group with special individual privileges but nowhere near that of past generations. They just get dominance and preference along with seniority within army along with majority of officer or higher ranks. They also make up standing army and police force while lower class conscripts or recruits fill support and naval roles(larger marine force with specialized army). Cossacks stayed a thing in Imperial Russia the samurai who support shogun likely retain more of their status or become like even more militarized junkers.

That doesn't really sound any different from OTL at all. If by "samurai" you just mean "individuals formerly belonging to the samurai class and their descendents," then their time didn't really end with the restoration (it lasted at least until WWII, maybe to the present day in some ways). IJA and IJN officers came overwhelmingly from former samurai families, as did most politicians and bureaucrats, and a good portion of the business elite. These families remain highly influential even right now in the 21st century...

Thus, when we speak of the abolition of the samurai class in the Meiji era, what we are actually talking about is the abolition of their legally codified special position in the Edo period society (which entitled them, among other things, to stipend from their feudal lord and the right to decapitate any commonor who direspected them). And the shogunate would surely have done away with that as well.

Korea would still be aimed of conquest especially with raw resources there vital for industrial production.

Long before resources become a concern, Korea will be seen as a security threat, being a Chinese tributary state whose geographical position puts Japanese sovereignty at risk. TTL Japan will surely have its own version of the Seikanron debate sooner or later.

They could also somehow break compromise between emperor and shogun on governance and power between two along with responsibilities.

Yoshinobu and other late shogunate leaders supported a reconcialliationist policy called Kōbu gattai in order to appease imperial loyalist sentiments. It basically meant that the shogunate pretended to ask the Emperor before announcing its decisions. ITTL, this would probably continue for a while, but once Choushu and Satsuma and defeated and the country largely calms down, it's unlikely that the shogunate will make much of an effort to continue the farce.

 

[Paradoxer]

I honestly don't see much room to "stay more traditional" (at least any more so than OTL) while still adopting western technology and forms of government. Japan retained quite a lot of its traditional culture in the face of an insurmountable western hegemony, and from the moment Japan opened itself to western trade and learning, western cultural diffusion was inevitable. It's also definitely not true that shogunate elites were more hostile to westernization than the opposing faction (in fact, if anything, during the 1860s, it was the exact opposite).



That doesn't really sound any different from OTL at all. If by "samurai" you just mean "individuals formerly belonging to the samurai class and their descendents," then their time didn't really end with the restoration (it lasted at least until WWII, maybe to the present day in some ways). IJA and IJN officers came overwhelmingly from former samurai families, as did most politicians and bureaucrats, and a good portion of the business elite. These families remain highly influential even right now in the 21st century...

Thus, when we speak of the abolition of the samurai class in the Meiji era, what we are actually talking about is the abolition of their legally codified special position in the Edo period society (which entitled them, among other things, to stipend from their feudal lord and the right to decapitate any commonor who direspected them). And the shogunate would surely have done away with that as well.



Long before resources become a concern, Korea will be seen as a security threat, being a Chinese tributary state whose geographical position puts Japanese sovereignty at risk. TTL Japan will surely have its own version of the Seikanron debate sooner or later.



Yoshinobu and other late shogunate leaders supported a reconcialliationist policy called Kōbu gattai in order to appease imperial loyalist sentiments. It basically meant that the shogunate pretended to ask the Emperor before announcing its decisions. ITTL, this would probably continue for a while, but once Choushu and Satsuma and defeated and the country largely calms down, it's unlikely that the shogunate will make much of an effort to continue the farce.

True, don’t disagree much at all. I just see shogun keeping samurai class more codified and official instead of de facto. The feudal structure is done away with but You have ones who like symbolic knighthoods or organizations in Europe or you have them as standing professional army and law enforcement.

They can be standing army and special or elite units while non samurai fill in support roles, cannon folder, and especially navy(more volunteers and conscripts are directed to navy). That actually Benefits militarization and modernization. The samurai keep more privileged even if reformed status while low class masses are directed towards navy and production/industries. The samurai just don’t stay de facto relevant and still legal class like knights in Europe but with even more respect and privileges.

For example, they are allowed to carry around katanas and possible only them for causal ownership. While more ninja style blades are made for non samurai. They also might be only civilians who can causally carry guns.

The “warrior class” can work in modern society. They just need to focus more on learning marksmanship and more modern combat skills while acting as national law enforcement during peacetime.

For traditional stuff I met they would do more stuff like retain more eastern clothing, style, art, and etc. While not overly different their will be less suits and pants and them wearing or even innovating their own traditional clothing more so.

I’m imagining the shogun and shogunate becoming militarized version of prime minister and Parliament. The emperor power either symbolic or limited or possibly shogun marries into royal family to connect too(the son being prepped as emperor shogunate. Maybe after his death shogun gets appointed by emperor. The emperor more of civil figure while shogun is military one).

 

[kasumigenx]

I think the shogunate could go communist/socialist like china.

 

[Phalamus]

True, don’t disagree much at all. I just see shogun keeping samurai class more codified and official instead of de facto. The feudal structure is done away with but You have ones who like symbolic knighthoods or organizations in Europe or you have them as standing professional army and law enforcement.

Well, IOTL the samurai were reclassified as Kazoku for the former feudal nobility and Shizoku for the retainers, but the Shizoku classification will have to be purely symbolic as there were way too many of them.

Also, I think it's important to point out that the shogunate elites at the end of the Edo period weren't really more inclined towards traditionalism than the opposing faction. If anything, the opposite was true.

They can be standing army and special or elite units while non samurai fill in support roles, cannon folder, and especially navy(more volunteers and conscripts are directed to navy). That actually Benefits militarization and modernization. The samurai keep more privileged even if reformed status while low class masses are directed towards navy and production/industries. The samurai just don’t stay de facto relevant and still legal class like knights in Europe but with even more respect and privileges.

Again, they were the overwhelming majority of the officer class IOTL, but they cannot be all of the standing army because you need a large number of trained professional soldiers (not just "cannon fodder"), and for "special elite units" you need meritocracy. It's also important to remember that the majority of the samurai is not going to want to fight in a war. By the end of the Edo period, they had been a privileged bureaucratic class for hunndreds of years, and most surely most would prefer to keep it that way...

For example, they are allowed to carry around katanas and possible only them for causal ownership. While more ninja style blades are made for non samurai. They also might be only civilians who can causally carry guns.

This is a big, MASSIVE NO. Disarming them is going to be very high on the priorities list of any government with half a brain, especially the lower-ranking samurai that were dispproportinately involved in anti-shogunate (and later anti-Meiji government) activities. The 1870s saw massive shizoku uprisings in Kyushu and other places (it's impressive how much damage a few people with swords can do even when the police and military have guns), so this would be a no brainer.

For traditional stuff I met they would do more stuff like retain more eastern clothing, style, art, and etc. While not overly different their will be less suits and pants and them wearing or even innovating their own traditional clothing more so.

Doubtful. With Japan open to trade, western cultural influences will inevitably spread and be gradually adopted. That's inevitable, imo. Plus, the first Japanese people to wear western clothing were shogunate officials. For example, here's the last shogun...

I’m imagining the shogun and shogunate becoming militarized version of prime minister and Parliament.

Not really an apt comparison, as the position of shogun was also hereditary and the Emperor was kept more cloistered and out of the public view than your usual. The Tairo (Great Elder) of the shogunate was more of a Prime Minister-type position, and the Roju and Wakadoshiyori were more like ministers or parliamentarians. But in my opinion the shogunate would most likely abolish these positions in favour of a more western-styled system of government.

possibly shogun marries into royal family to connect too

Intermarriage between shogunal and imperial families was common is every shogunate. They had already been doing this for hundreds of years...

The emperor more of civil figure while shogun is military one

No, the shogun (or whoever controlled him) would retain all real power while the Emperor would be remain in the Imperial palace doing petry.

I think the shogunate could go communist/socialist like china.

???

 

[Paradoxer]

Well, IOTL the samurai were reclassified as Kazoku for the former feudal nobility and Shizoku for the retainers, but the Shizoku classification will have to be purely symbolic as there were way too many of them.

Also, I think it's important to point out that the shogunate elites at the end of the Edo period weren't really more inclined towards traditionalism than the opposing faction. If anything, the opposite was true.



Again, they were the overwhelming majority of the officer class IOTL, but they cannot be all of the standing army because you need a large number of trained professional soldiers (not just "cannon fodder"), and for "special elite units" you need meritocracy. It's also important to remember that the majority of the samurai is not going to want to fight in a war. By the end of the Edo period, they had been a privileged bureaucratic class for hunndreds of years, and most surely most would prefer to keep it that way...



This is a big, MASSIVE NO. Disarming them is going to be very high on the priorities list of any government with half a brain, especially the lower-ranking samurai that were dispproportinately involved in anti-shogunate (and later anti-Meiji government) activities. The 1870s saw massive shizoku uprisings in Kyushu and other places (it's impressive how much damage a few people with swords can do even when the police and military have guns), so this would be a no brainer.



Doubtful. With Japan open to trade, western cultural influences will inevitably spread and be gradually adopted. That's inevitable, imo. Plus, the first Japanese people to wear western clothing were shogunate officials. For example, here's the last shogun...

View attachment 661460

Not really an apt comparison, as the position of shogun was also hereditary and the Emperor was kept more cloistered and out of the public view than your usual. The Tairo (Great Elder) of the shogunate was more of a Prime Minister-type position, and the Roju and Wakadoshiyori were more like ministers or parliamentarians. But in my opinion the shogunate would most likely abolish these positions in favour of a more western-styled system of government.



Intermarriage between shogunal and imperial families was common is every shogunate. They had already been doing this for hundreds of years...



No, the shogun (or whoever controlled him) would retain all real power while the Emperor would be remain in the Imperial palace doing petry.


???

There multiple ways for Japanese to move forward and modernize. One point or conflict during this time is rebellious samurai and ronin those. A shogunate regime likely have more on their side and then inclined to satisfying them more so then imperials did.

If they make them officers, police sergeants, policemen, personnel guards, and special units that helps fill in roles for them better then feudal system for consistent pay, work, and livelihood. While also serving country in productive way. Samurai are large for warrior class. I think bit over 10 percent of population. One reason Edo period was near police state at times.

For hereditary aspect Japanese even if only de facto often gave preference to seniority, loyalty, and blood ties. Any lower class person showed worth damn in these fields get married in or adopted into one of samurai families. Think junkers or capitalist and industrialist marrying into nobility in Europe for name and prestige when they already have success in raw wealth or merit

The reason I mentioned marrying into imperial family a savvy shogunate can use that along with gaining support of samurai class especially landless and ronin to basically help uproot the daimyos and feudal lords. Basically, puppet emperor while he centralizes the shogun control/power to help modernize quicker.

Also if samurais are police and law enforcement or paramilitary forces they need those swords and guns for their jobs. Sometimes a blade is more handy in close combat or law enforcement then a gun. Also use private paramilitary samurai to break up unions or hunt down terrorist, partisans, or general criminals.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Japan would be even more like prussia since it'd have more of an autonomous junker type class.

 

[Phalamus]

One point or conflict during this time is rebellious samurai and ronin those. A shogunate regime likely have more on their side and then inclined to satisfying them more so then imperials did.

What are you basing this on? It's completely untrue judging from what I know of the period. Lower class samurai and ronin were often the main instigators of anti-shogunate activity. If anything, the shogunate would have more incentive to suppress them as strongly as policy, not "satisify". And again, "satisfying" is going to be different for everyone. The majority of the former samurai are not going to want to be a "warrior class" or part of the police or military.

Anyway, I'd argue that class analysis is not very useful here seeing as Japanese politics of the period were based on clan rather than class, so there were people of all walks of life in both sides. But if you do want to talk about it in those terms, then lower ranking samurai were definitely far more prominent on the anti-shogunate side.

If they make them officers, police sergeants, policemen, personnel guards, and special units that helps fill in roles for them better then feudal system for consistent pay, work, and livelihood. While also serving country in productive way. Samurai are large for warrior class. I think bit over 10 percent of population. One reason Edo period was near police state at times.

Yes, there were far too many of them, and that was why the stipends posed a problem, as well as their swordcarrying privileges. But they were not a "warrior class" by then, more of a bureaucratic and administrative one (that largely wanted to stay that way). But again, I really don't understand what you think would happen that is different from OTL. Do you think that the shogunate would formally exclude commoners from permanent (even low-ranking) positions in the military and security forces? Because if you just mean de facto having an officer corps made out almost exclusively out of people from former samurai families, then that is exactly OTL.

The reason I mentioned marrying into imperial family a savvy shogunate can use that along with gaining support of samurai class especially landless and ronin to basically help uproot the daimyos and feudal lords. Basically, puppet emperor while he centralizes the shogun control/power to help modernize quicker.

But they were already intermarried, so there's nothing new there... but sure, more marriages could happen (they did IOTL even though the shogunate happened).

Also if samurais are police and law enforcement or paramilitary forces they need those swords and guns for their jobs. Sometimes a blade is more handy in close combat or law enforcement then a gun. Also use private paramilitary samurai to break up unions or hunt down terrorist, partisans, or general criminals.

You can't have 10%+ of the population carrying lethal weapons, especially not the larger portion of those 10% (the lower ranking samurai) that is aggressively opposed to the reigning regime.

 

[Paradoxer]

What are you basing this on? It's completely untrue judging from what I know of the period. Lower class samurai and ronin were often the main instigators of anti-shogunate activity. If anything, the shogunate would have more incentive to suppress them as strongly as policy, not "satisify". And again, "satisfying" is going to be different for everyone. The majority of the former samurai are not going to want to be a "warrior class" or part of the police or military.

Anyway, I'd argue that class analysis is not very useful here seeing as Japanese politics of the period were based on clan rather than class, so there were people of all walks of life in both sides. But if you do want to talk about it in those terms, then lower ranking samurai were definitely far more prominent on the anti-shogunate side.



Yes, there were far too many of them, and that was why the stipends posed a problem, as well as their swordcarrying privileges. But they were not a "warrior class" by then, more of a bureaucratic and administrative one (that largely wanted to stay that way). But again, I really don't understand what you think would happen that is different from OTL. Do you think that the shogunate would formally exclude commoners from permanent (even low-ranking) positions in the military and security forces? Because if you just mean de facto having an officer corps made out almost exclusively out of people from former samurai families, then that is exactly OTL.



But they were already intermarried, so there's nothing new there... but sure, more marriages could happen (they did IOTL even though the shogunate happened).



You can't have 10%+ of the population carrying lethal weapons, especially not the larger portion of those 10% (the lower ranking samurai) that is aggressively opposed to the reigning regime.

True and agree with exception of weapons part. Much of it would only be different in names, terms, and structure at least at first. I think impact is more on later generations especially culture and society wise. I just think shogunate would develop into corporatist type of state with military industrial complex meritocracy but with heavy de facto hereditary elements or “cliques”(think “old money” or blood).

On weapons points, the history and stats disprove your point somewhat on need to disarmed citizens. 22 percent own guns now individually. Over 40 percent live in household with guns. Also guns here can be semi automatic or easily modified to “military grade” weapons or full auto. The US just often kept it from getting “political”. The Wild West was full of outlaws with guns especially after many disgruntled southerners became partisans before dissolving into outlaws(Jesse James). The frontier had people armed to teeth one at necessity but they ran places rather well. Mississippi right now has ownership of over 50 percent but isn’t Mexico level unstable.

The right to bear arms(swords or guns) is something some samurai would be wise and will fight to death for because it gives them leverage to level. They just have to convince shogun or emperor they won’t be turning their swords against either of them anymore and only for service of Japan or personal use at most(if they kill some peasant or merchant for badmouthing them they “let it slide” like past). The lower class ronin samurai often got most screwed in these deals especially with imperial regime because now they are often equal to peasants now.

The shogunate likely does repeat of past but with modifications with invasion of Korea decades earlier then otl to test modernizing of military and two to kill off some restless ronins and samurais.

I do agree in long run especially the Shogunate might be more open to modernization at least in tactics and technology. It would be more militarized then imperial regimes. The emperor in otl even during imperial era was sometimes too passive. A oligarch of generals with commander and chief(shogun) as head I do see being more successful in expansion.

The reason I mentioned “warrior class” especially with lower class ronin elements is military command and elites can be super pragmatic and calculated. It’s your grunts who cling to old tactics/ways. Also some mid level officers and generals. Once they are in check those or at least satisfied you can get a lot done.

 

[EnvarKadri]

I think the shogunate could go communist/socialist like china.

Japan wont go communist without a soviet invasion or failing at modernization so bad they get colonized or under western influence like China. Overall I think its very unlikely at this point.

 

[Grey Wolf]

How does revenue collection for the central authority go in a modernising shogunate? Can you tax the daimyo?

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

Japan wont go communist without a soviet invasion or failing at modernization so bad they get colonized or under western influence like China. Overall I think its very unlikely at this point.

A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline has a Communist Japan.