Meiji Ethiopia

Which POD should be chosen for the Meiji Ethiopia TL?

  • Tewodros II's forces hold their positions at Arogye Plateau and force the British into a stalemate.

    Votes: 21 63.6%
  • Menelik II accepts Alitash Tewodros' hand in marriage and works alongside Tewodros in modernizing.

    Votes: 12 36.4%

  • Total voters
    33
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/potential-ethiopia-tls.447671/

According to the votes, the Meiji Ethiopia or Japanese-style Ethiopian modernization was the most popular TL choice but I'm not sure which one to chose. Please vote so that I may begin writing.

Let me elaborate on the PODs - Emperor Tewodros II orders his forces to hold his position at Arogye plateau, forcing General Napier's Anglo-Indian forces into a stalemate that ends in an unequal treaty that starts Ethiopian modernization earlier. The other was having Menelik II accept Alitash Tewodros' hand in marriage and becomes heir to the throne while Tewodros establishes an alliance with him and Yohannes IV to modernize Ethiopia.
 
ell, what would be the most likely choice in having Ethiopia getting access to the sea sooner, since that would help
It depends on whether or not the British decide to actually allow Ethiopia to annex Eritrea instead of giving it to Italy so I believe the latter could do that if the British see Ethiopia as a good enough proxy to influence the entire Horn of Africa.
 
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Votes
Emperor Tewodros II's forces maintain their positions at Arogye plateau and forced General Napier's Anglo-Indian forces into a stalemate as both sides were unwilling to advance against one another - 10 votes.

The first POD wins and I already have begun writing the Meiji Ethiopia TL.
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/potential-ethiopia-tls.447671/

According to the votes, the Meiji Ethiopia or Japanese-style Ethiopian modernization was the most popular TL choice but I'm not sure which one to chose. Please vote so that I may begin writing.

Let me elaborate on the PODs - Emperor Tewodros II orders his forces to hold his position at Arogye plateau, forcing General Napier's Anglo-Indian forces into a stalemate that ends in an unequal treaty that starts Ethiopian modernization earlier. The other was having Menelik II accept Alitash Tewodros' hand in marriage and becomes heir to the throne while Tewodros establishes an alliance with him and Yohannes IV to modernize Ethiopia.
You'd really need an earlier POD to end the Zemene Mesafint. Then you'd need at least a few decades of independant social development before the British or some other European state comes agressively knocking. Japan's modernization was not built on nothing, it had had a large urbanized and educated* population for decades prior to being opened up. Ethiopia did not have that.

*including some western eduction in the form of "Dutch Studies"
 
You'd really need an earlier POD to end the Zemene Mesafint. Then you'd need at least a few decades of independant social development before the British or some other European state comes agressively knocking. Japan's modernization was not built on nothing, it had had a large urbanized and educated* population for decades prior to being opened up. Ethiopia did not have that.

*including some western eduction in the form of "Dutch Studies"
What else would you recommend?
 
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