Medium/long term effects of a "Meiji" China and decrepit Japan?

Say that the late Qing reform efforts succeed (as, if I'm not mistaken, was not entirely beyond the realm of possibility), whilst for whatever reason, Japan does not experience the Meiji reforms. Qing China renews itself and becomes a stable(ish) constitutional monarchy and economic power. Japan remains technologically behind, whoever is in charge.

What would the effects on East Asia be over the next 20/30 years and beyond?
 
Say that the late Qing reform efforts succeed (as, if I'm not mistaken, was not entirely beyond the realm of possibility), whilst for whatever reason, Japan does not experience the Meiji reforms. Qing China renews itself and becomes a stable(ish) constitutional monarchy and economic power. Japan remains technologically behind, whoever is in charge.

What would the effects on East Asia be over the next 20/30 years and beyond?

The Qing undergoing modernization is not that far off. Japan remaining behind seems rather unlikely, both sides of Boshin war both Imperial and Shogunate forces wanted to have an edge. Even if we have the Tokugawa win and the Imperial faction suppressed, you would still see an attempt to technologically modernize, even if the Shogunate system doesn't.
 
Would China and Japan get into a war in the scenario that they're both fairly modern?
Quite possibly, they'd both have conflicting agendas (e.g. Korea), and could easily end up in opposing alliance structures.

If China became powerful and Japan stayed weak, on the other hand, I doubt China would have much interest in conquering Japan. The Chinese would have plenty of other areas in their near abroad that they'd want to try and dominate/absorb (e.g. Indochina, places like Tibet and Kashgar where Qing authority was little more than nominal), and Japan probably isn't valuable enough to justify a major expedition.
 
Look at China and Asia today; there are the effects. China, with it's quite exaggerated population would have formed an economic powerhouse. It's industrial and agricultural production would have overtook western societies. Along with industrial modernization, the Qing military would be a major power in the world.

China had lots of vassal and tributary states in Asia like Korea, Vietnam, Tibet... This states would be chinese "colonies" (notably to sell the products of China's 19th century industry). And China would have to deal with some unpleasant neighbours: Russia in the north, Great Britain in the west, the US in the east and Spain in the south.

Japan, modernized or feudal, would be a trade partner, surely a competitor, but likely not an enemy; China has no interest in attacking Japan; Japan would know that an attack on Korea (and thus China) would be suicuide.

A big problem in China's society would be liberalism and republicanism, trying to overthrow monarchy; concurrently, the feudal lord would attempt to stop political modernization, leading into a civil war.

The modernization of China (and probably it's democratization) would be a problem in India: the people there would surely try to expel the Brits and to build their one modern society.
 
While China could modernize and build industry relatively quickly it could not 'pull a Meiji'; Japan did not just pull industry out of it's ass, it had had light industry for several centuries and the Shogunate had been gradually building on that since the late 18th century.

In short a rapidly industrializing China is not going to do as well as Japan did due to the two having different situations.
 
While China could modernize and build industry relatively quickly it could not 'pull a Meiji'; Japan did not just pull industry out of it's ass, it had had light industry for several centuries and the Shogunate had been gradually building on that since the late 18th century.

In short a rapidly industrializing China is not going to do as well as Japan did due to the two having different situations.

Yes, though China had some important silk and porcelain manufactories who could have been modernized and industrialized with foreign help.
 
While China could modernize and build industry relatively quickly it could not 'pull a Meiji'; Japan did not just pull industry out of it's ass, it had had light industry for several centuries and the Shogunate had been gradually building on that since the late 18th century.

But china had light industry and a well developed financial system as well. It wasn't uniform, but around 1750 The Yangzi Delta was among the richest and most developed places on the planet.
 
In AH terms, Reformed Qing China slowly getting to where Japan got is pretty interesting, I think.

Best/worst/medium case scenarios for where it's likely to be by the time WWI (let's say it still happens in the 1910s) rolls around?
 
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