The invasion of Britain was postponed indefinitely in September 1940 due to the
Luftwaffe′s failure to obtain air superiority during the
Battle of Britain, and the significantly greater power of the Royal Navy over the German naval forces. On 21 July 1940, Raeder first learned that Hitler was contemplating invading the Soviet Union.
[61] At the time, Raeder had no objections to the proposed invasion other than to complain that it was likely to strengthen the budgets of the Army and Air Force at the expense of the Navy.
[62] The idea of a "peripheral strategy" for defeating Britain was first suggested in a memo to Raeder by Admiral
Gerhard Wagner on 29 August 1940 when it was stated that Germany could not defeat Britain in the air nor sea, and instead just seek victory in the Mediterranean as a weak spot of the British Empire.
[63] In September 1940, Raeder first presented his "Mediterranean plan" to Hitler.
[64] Raeder favoured a strategic focus on the Mediterranean theatre, including a strong German presence in
North Africa, plus an invasion of
Malta and the Middle East by German, Italian, Spanish and, if necessary, Vichy French forces.
[55] Raeder believed that capturing
Gibraltar, and the
Suez Canal would be a great blow to Britain.
[55] Afterwards, Axis forces would use the
Canary Islands, the
Azores and the
Cape Verde islands to launch naval and air attacks that would destroy British commerce and knock Britain out of the war.
[55] On 6 September 1940 and again on 26 September, Raeder met with Hitler to advise the acceptance of his "Mediterranean plan".
[65] According to Raeder:
"The British have always considered the Mediterranean the pivot of their world empire ... Germany, however, must wage war against Great Britain with all the means at her disposal and without delay before the United States is able to intervene effectively.
Gibraltar must be taken. The Canary Islands must be secured by the Air Force.
The Suez Canal must be taken.
An advance from Suez through Palestine and Syria as far as Turkey is necessary. If we reach that point, Turkey will be in our power. The Russian problem will then appear in a different light ... It is doubtful whether an advance against Russia from the north will be necessary".
[65]
On 30 May 1941 Raeder told Hitler that a major offensive against
Egypt to take the
Suez Canal gave Germany a chance to strike a blow that "would be more deadly to the British Empire than the capture of London!".
[65] On several occasions, he suggested that Hitler send the vaunted tank commander
Erwin Rommel to Egypt. Hitler agreed with Raeder's idea of sending German forces to North Africa at their meeting of 26 September 1940, but noted that he would need Italian permission to do so, and as it was not until
Benito Mussolini requested German help in early 1941 that the necessary Italian permission was obtained.
[65] Murray and Millet wrote that Raeder's "Mediterranean strategy" had "... more to do with inter-service rivalry than with any strategic conception".
[60]
When Raeder first raised the "Mediterranean plan" on 6 September 1940, Hitler mentioned that he was also considering an attack on the Soviet Union, to which Raeder did not object, and only at the second meeting of 26 September 1940 did Raeder first argue for giving primacy to the "Mediterranean plan" over an invasion of Soviet Russia.
[66] Raeder's change of mind about what operation to give primacy to was mostly due to signs of increased American support for Britain such as the
"destroyers-for-bases" deal of 2 September 1940, the Anglo-Free French attack on
Dakar and the defection of several French colonies in Africa from Vichy to the Gaullists.
[67] Raeder argued that it was quite possible that the United States might intervene in the near future, which led him to argue that Britain must be defeated in the winter of 1940/41 before America could enter the war, while the signs that Vichy was losing its control over the French colonial empire meant the Allied cause was growing stronger in resource-rich Africa.
[66] Raeder argued that it was now time to sign a peace treaty that would make Vichy France into a full ally, claiming that Vichy French forces could take the important British naval base at
Freetown and that, by ceasing to treat France as a conquered country, Germany would be allowed to gain all of the resources of the French empire and fleet.
[68]