The thing about butterflies is the "elasticity" of timelines. If Pierre the peasant decides to have cheese instead of meat for lunch, the odds are the "ripples" from this will fade away. Maybe the colors of Wyoming's license plates will be different in the 20th century, but otherwise not so much. OTOH something like Baldwin's leprosy being arrested early and he living a relatively vigorous and longer life is probably going to stretch the elasticity of things to the breaking point. Even if King X ends up living 5 years longer that may not result in major changes 200 years later, again some smaller things but a world that would be recognizable to us.
There are stories, and some scientific thought, that there is some leakage between close "strands" all the time. In some ways if any of us were transported to a world very close to ours, the differences might not be noticed at all, after all who knows what the most popular soda is in Malaysia if you don't live there. Or perhaps you notice a shop in your city is not the same and wonder "when did that happen?" In 2018 would you notice if Ted Kennedy lived a year longer?
Butterflies do happen with almost anything, but unless they are something that would affect you directly, or a large, they will tend to tamp out...
There are stories, and some scientific thought, that there is some leakage between close "strands" all the time. In some ways if any of us were transported to a world very close to ours, the differences might not be noticed at all, after all who knows what the most popular soda is in Malaysia if you don't live there. Or perhaps you notice a shop in your city is not the same and wonder "when did that happen?" In 2018 would you notice if Ted Kennedy lived a year longer?
Butterflies do happen with almost anything, but unless they are something that would affect you directly, or a large, they will tend to tamp out...