ME7 Nation Help - Byron and Greece (rehash)

POD:

Lord Byron – the English romantic poet – survives an encounter with marsh fever (malaria) in April 1824, instead dying of natural causes in 1854.

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Kingdom of Greece (OTL Greece + Albania + Macedonia):

Byron’s survival in April 1824 ensures plans of an artillery-based attack on the Turkish-held fortress of Lepanto are carried through. Despite losing a significant proportion of troops (just over a third), the rebels take the base. In the following months Lepanto becomes the de facto headquarters of the resistance effort, and is instrumental in the success of further activity.

With the rebels position slightly more secure, Byron returns to the UK in September 1828 in an attempt to raise support for the Greek cause.

With the aid of British forces (pledged by the Duke of Wellington in 1829), Byron provides a rallying figure for native resistance movements of the Greeks, Albanians and Macedonians. The Ottoman Empire recognises the independence of Greece in February 1830.

In his later years (1845-54), Byron becomes strongly involved in Greek politics, helping to forge the way for a British ally in the Mediterranean.

British Protectorate of the Ionian Islands:

With the ‘Anglicisation’ of Greece, and less anti-British sentiment – the Ionians and the British see no reason for the Ionian Islands to be returned to Greece (as in 1863 OTL)

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Timeline:

1820s

1823 – Byron arrives in Greece.
1824 – Byron survives brush with marsh fever (POD). Rebels take Lepanto.
1828 – Byron returns to the UK to raise support for the Greek rebels.
1829 – Byron’s supporters in the Commons help pressure Wellington into pledging British military support to the Greek cause.

1830s (need help in fleshing out timeline from beyond here)

1830 – Greek claims of independence are ratified by the Ottoman Empire.

1840s

1848 – Revolutions of 1848 (?). Marx’s ‘Communist Manifesto’ published.

1850s

1851 – Lord Byron dies of natural causes.
Crimean War (1854-56?)
Indian Mutiny (1857-58?)
1859 – Darwin’s ‘Origin of Species’ published. Moldavia and Wallachia are unified, forming Romania.

1860s

Italian Unification (1861-70?)
American Civil War (1861-65?)
French occupation of Mexico (1863-67?)
Meiji Restoration in Japan (1866-69?)
1865 – Abraham Lincoln assassinated.
1867 – Canada becomes an independent nation.

1870s

Franco-Prussian War (1870-71?)
Start of the ‘New Imperialism’

1880s

First Boer War (1880-81?)
The ‘New Imperialism’

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Major Ideological/Cultural Divergences:

- Greek Romanticism (combine Byron with Ancient Greek culture)
- Reform Orthodoxy (Religious movement seeking a syncretism of Anglican and Greek Orthodox Christianity)
 
OK, I'm confused :)

I was under the impression that Britain 'returned' the Ionian Islands to Greece as a goodwill gesture OTL; on the accession of King George I IIRC ?

Why would such a goodwill gesture be LESS likely if Greece was more pro-British from the start ?

Grey Wolf
 
From what I read, it was more to do with anti-British sentiment from the Ionian islands fostered from the mainland...which, if it was pro-British to begin with, wouldn't be so attractive for the Ionians to join with. They'll probably ultimately want total independence.
 
The biggest war in the 1800s was the Taiping rebellion. It killed more people and caused more economic disruption and loss than every other war in that century combined. If this gets butterflied out, China is going to be a very different place.
 
OK, I can't help but wonder what a different end to the Greek war of independence means for the powers of the Eastern Mediterranean ? By the late 1840s, Egypt's ambitions were very much back on track, and were looking good, before Britain in the form of the Royal Navy, along with a small Austrian squadron, broke them, and French realisation of their relative weakness prevented them from coming to the aid of their ally.

A different settlement, a different situation with guarantors, a different king (seems more likely Leopold would accept it in this timeline), and thus different relations and power plays in the region...

Grey Wolf
 
I like that idea.

So Leopold accepts the Greek throne in late 1830 having being seen by the British powers that be as a suitably pro-British candidate.

As a result, the throne of Belgium goes to someone else (weaker candidates for Belgian throne, anyone?), ultimately butterflying away an independent Belgium, which is officially reabsorbed into the Netherlands after total military defeat in 1838.

Any young pro-British princesses he could have married in the 1830s/40s?

Plus, he is credited with overseeing the marriage of Victoria and Albert - what if he is otherwise engaged with Greek business?
 
How about ripple effect leading to the Second Empire collapsing after Napoleon III's death (no F-P war, he stays in power) and being replaced by a republican government, the Empire loyalists setting up a new regime in French West Africa and fighting a war with the Republicans? (They have Emperor Louis) Also, how about Austria attempting to dominate Germany, then coming up against a liberal South German federation, which is hostile towards Prussia? Finally, how about a second wave of revolutions, in, say, 1866?
 
Also - a delayed marriage for Victoria and Albert - say August 1840, rather than February - butterflies their children beyond all recognition.

Using random generator and likelihoods of conception, I got this outcome:-

1843 - Prince Edward (dies in 1844)
1845 - Prince William
1848 - The Princess Victoria, Princess Royal (dies in 1852)
1849 - The Princess Charlotte
1851 - Prince Arthur
1853 - The Princess Augusta
1856 - The Princess Helena

Names are a combination of OTL and Christian and Middle names of Victoria and Albert's ancestors. Additional ideas about titles, careers etc. would be most welcome...
 
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Okay, try this...

Timeline:

1820s

1824 - (Apr) Having arrived in Greece a year earlier, Byron survives a brush with marsh fever (POD) to lead a successful Greek rebel assault on the fortress of Lepanto.

1825 - (Jan) King Ferdinand I of the Two Sicilies dies and is succeeded by his son Francis I of the Two Sicilies.

- (Dec) Alexander I of Russia dies and is succeeded by his younger brother Nicholas I of Russia.

1828 - (Jan) The Duke of Wellington succeeds Lord Goderich as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

- (Mar) A traumatising experience on the front line precipitates Byron’s return to the UK, where he sets about raising popular support for plight of the Greek rebels.

- (Jun) Russia declares war on the Ottoman Turks, in support of the Greek struggle for independence.

1829 - Byron’s supporters in both the Commons and the Lords help pressure Wellington into (somewhat reluctantly) pledging limited British naval support to the Greek cause.

1830s

1830 - (Feb) Public philhellenic sentiment causes the collapse of the Wellington government, to be replaced by a Whig government under the more pro-Greek figurehead of the Earl Grey. His first move as PM is to pledge an increase in the number of British troops to be sent to Greece.

- (Jun) William IV succeeds George IV as King of the United Kingdom.

- (Jul) France invades Algeria.

- (Jul-Aug) July Revolution in France. Abdication of King Charles X of France in favor of his grandson, Henry V, who is not allowed to take the throne. The Duke of Orleans becomes King of the French as Louis-Philippe I.

- (Aug) Anti-monarchist revolts in Brussels.

- (Oct) The Belgian revolution establishes an independent Belgian state, separate from the government of the Netherlands.

- (Nov) Ferdinand II becomes King of the Two Sicilies.

- (Nov) Beginning of a major Polish insurrection in Warsaw against Russian rule.

1831 - (Feb) Battle of Grochow. Polish rebel forces divide a Russian army.

(Febuary onwards) Greek claims of independence are ratified by the Ottoman Empire, which – facing threats of internal turmoil - willingly cedes the vast majority of Greek, Albanian and Macedonian territories to the new Republic. Greece continues to seek full independence through diplomatic negotiations with the Empire as well as with Russia, France and Britain. Athens is proposed as the new Greek capitol.

- (Feb-Mar) Revolts in Modena, Parma and the Papal States are put down by Austrian troops.

- (Mar) Treaty of Constantinople ends the Russo-Turkish War. Russia gains territory at the mouth of the Danube and along the eastern coast of the Black Sea.

- (Mar) With the aid of a British faction – headed by the Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston, and Byron himself – Leopold of Saxe-Coburg (1790-1865) (OTL Leopold I of Belgium) is appointed as the most suitable candidate for the monarchy of Greece.

- (May) Inaugaration of Leopold of Saxe-Coburg, King of Greece.

- (May) Leopold appoints Ioannis Kapodistrias (1776-1842) as de facto Prime Minister until the infrastructure for democratic elections exists (Kapodistrias’ assassination in September is butterflied away). After the turmoil of fighting, the country is a mess, and economically unstable; to tackle this, the Prime Minister’s first move is to plough foreign loans into programmes of industrialisation and public works.

- (Aug) Dutch invasion of Belgium. The northern reaches of the country are occupied, but a combination of French and Belgian troops hold back the Dutch forces.

1832 - (June) The Great Reform Act, having bypassed Tory opposition, becomes law. Introducing a major rationalisation of the British electoral system and extending the franchise to the middle classes, the move is met with broad and enthusiastic public support from the British people, and liberals across Europe.

(June) - Triggered by a cholera epidemic, anti-monarchist riot briefly breaks out in Paris.

1833 - (Feb) Inaugural elections for the National Assembly held, result returns Kapodistrias as PM, with a pro-British and modernising government [name?]. A broadly reactionary, anti-British faction [name?] gets the second largest result, but remains insignificant.

- (May) Creation of the 1833 Athens Constitution [name? content?]

- (Sept) Isabella II becomes Queen of Spain, under the regency of her mother, Maria Cristina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies. Her uncle, Don Carlos, the Conde de Molina challenges her claim, beginning the First Carlist War.

- (?) Charles Babbage described his analytical engine.

- (?) The British Parliament passes the Slavery Abolition Act.

1834 - (Jan) Abolition of customs charges at borders within Germany.

- (Mar) The Tolpuddle Martyrs, six Dorset farm labourers, are sentenced to be transported to a penal colony for forming a trade union

[buoyed by successsful reforms and high public opinion, Earl Grey does not retire from public life in 1834, but hangs on as Prime Minister until 1838...]

- (Aug) Slavery abolished in the British Empire.

- (Oct onwards) Much of the Palace of Westminster is destroyed by fire. A Royal Commission, appointed to study the rebuilding of the Palace, decided that the Palace should be rebuilt on the same site, but that its style should reflect the contemporary 'Greek Revival' architecture of the age. A public competition ensued, with the winning entry being that of Decimus Burton (1800-81).

1835 - Leopold marries Princess Louise-Marie d'Orléans (1812-50), daughter of King Louis-Philippe of France.

1836 - Queen Louise-Marie of Greece gives birth to a daughter, the Princess Marie.

1837 - (Jun) Victoria succeeds William IV as monarch of the United Kingdom.

- (Sept) The opening of the railway between central Athens and the port of Piraeus makes one of King Leopold's fondest hopes – to build the first railway in continental Europe – a reality.

1838 - Belgium re-annexed by the Netherlands.

1839 - Queen Louise-Marie of Greece gives birth to a son and heir, Constantine of Greece [what surname, titles?].

1840s

1840 - (Aug) Queen Victoria marries her cousin, Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg.

1842 - (July 7) Queen Louise-Marie of Greece gives birth to a son, Prince Alexander of Saxe-Coburg.

[Ferdinand-Philippe, Duc d'Orleans, not killed in carriage accident in 1842, as visiting sister in Greece]

- (Sept) Former PM, Ioannis Kapodistrias, dies of a heart problem.

1845 - Byron returns to Greece.

1848 - (Feb) Following popular anti-monarchical unrest, Louis-Philippe I of France (1773-1850) flees to the UK, unexpectedly abdicating in favour of Ferdinand d’Orleans; his popular, intelligent, and far more liberal son (1810-71).

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I need about another forty years of timeline...ideas anyone?

What impacts would

1) A pro-British, modernising Greek nation with its sights set on colonial power

2) No Belgium after 1838

3) Orleanist France continued post-1848

have on the grand scheme of things?

What do you see happening in the 1848 revolutions?

Where do we go next?
 
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Europe before the 1848 Revolutions:

Alternate1840s.gif
 
Just a Thought.

Justin Pickard said:
POD:

Lord Byron – the English romantic poet – survives an encounter with marsh fever (malaria) in April 1824, instead dying of natural causes in 1854.

-----

Kingdom of Greece (OTL Greece + Albania + Macedonia):

Byron’s survival in April 1824 ensures plans of an artillery-based attack on the Turkish-held fortress of Lepanto are carried through. Despite losing a significant proportion of troops (just over a third), the rebels take the base. In the following months Lepanto becomes the de facto headquarters of the resistance effort, and is instrumental in the success of further activity.

With the rebels position slightly more secure, Byron returns to the UK in September 1828 in an attempt to raise support for the Greek cause.
This is not my specialty, but sounds doable so far....
Justin Pickard said:
With the aid of British forces (pledged by the Duke of Wellington in 1829), Byron provides a rallying figure for native resistance movements of the Greeks, Albanians and Macedonians.
Stop. Right. There.

The (Slavic) Macedonians have little reason to place themselves under Greek Rule considering that they are (like most of the Balkan Christians) dominated by the Phanariot Greeks of Constantinople already. The Albanians were largely Muslim by that time, which meant that according to anything resembling OTL's Greek Revolt they had to die. More to the point 90% of the dissatisfaction among them was with corrupt provencial rulers as opposed to the Sultan, it was only the prolonged lawlessness and distance that let even the Morean hinterland get to the point of open anti-Ottoman revolt.

If you want a Greece this size, you will need a vastly different ethnoreligious policy to avoid pro-Ottoman counterrevolts.

HTG
 
Okay, ignore that...

The main divergences by 1848 (summarized):

POD: Lord Byron survives an encounter with marsh fever (malaria) in April 1824.

First Cycle: 1828-1848

With a more stable position for the rebels following the capture of the fortress of Lepanto in 1824, Byron returns to Britain in 1828. His influence amongst the upper classes results in an official (if unwilling) pledge of British support and troops by Wellington to the Greek cause. As a result of this, the Greek nation declares a strengthened independence in 1831.

The UK holds onto the Protectorate of the Ionian Islands.

A pro-British Greek King - Leopold of Saxe-Coburg [uncle of Queen Victoria] – marries a French Orleanist Princess (Louise-Marie d’Orleans) [daughter of King Louis-Felipe I of France].

A French Orleanist (Louis-Charles, Duc d’Nemours (1814-96)) becomes monarch of the Belgian state declared in 1830 [second son of King Louis-Felipe I of France]. He later marries Victoria Saxe-Coburg (1822-57) [cousin of Queen Victoria]

[These are two strong marriages, which cement the British and French royal dynasties in the process of creating two new monarchies]

Orleanist France survives 1848 revolutions with the abdication of King Louis-Philippe I in favour of his more liberal and popular son; Ferdinand-Philippe (1810-71).

Greece in the process of modernizing, industrializes, and anglicizes – has its eye on colonial power status.

With an Orleanist monarch, from 1838 Belgium has become a perpetual battlefield between Dutch and French forces. Belgian government in exile?

Pan-Hellenic Movement, propagated by Byron and his contemporaries, gives an additional boost to neo-classicism and romanticism in the arts, but is it at the expense of rationalism?
 
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I think you are vastly overestimating the impact of Byron on the Greeks, or how successful a British Romantic Poet would be in Greek politics. The territory you have given Greece includes Salonika, the second largest and most important city in the Ottoman Empire, and its hinterland, which are populated by Turks, and which Greece has about as much chance of conquering as Lichtenstein has of seizing Bavaria. Remeber that Greece essentially lost their war of independence until the Europeans saved their asses. Launching an OFFENSIVE war against the Ottoman Empire would result in their loss of support from Europe and would cause the whole Empire to rally against the invaders. On your map, only a small fraction of that extra territory has a Greek majority - most of it is Albanian, Macedonian, and Turkish (plus the majority Jewish city of Salonika).

While an alternate TL can cause events to snowball in different directions, your change is so minute that it will take time for things to change so seriously, and I think you're moving too fast.

With regard to Leopold, I would think he would arrange for Byron to have a bizarre sewing accident, then establish warm relations with the Ottomans and then try to use Greek resources to build a colonial empire, not engage in expensive warfare with a wayyy more powerful neighbor. That seems more interesting to me anyway.
 
htgriffin said:
The Albanians were largely Muslim by that time, which meant that according to anything resembling OTL's Greek Revolt they had to die. More to the point 90% of the dissatisfaction among them was with corrupt provencial rulers as opposed to the Sultan, it was only the prolonged lawlessness and distance that let even the Morean hinterland get to the point of open anti-Ottoman revolt.

HTG

It was also Ottoman preoccupation with reestablishing control over Albania that made the Greek revolt even possible. As it took the entire strength of the Ottoman Empire ten years to achieve this, and that's WITH a decent portion of the population supporting them, imagine the resistance of the Albanians to an alien Christian invader, WITH Ottoman support. This is just totally beyond the resources of Greece. Even gaining independence was beyond their resources; they needed foreign intervention to achieve victory, and then they were a piss-poor wreck for the next several decades.
 
Justin Pickard said:
Okay, ignore that...

The main divergences by 1848 (summarized):

POD: Lord Byron survives an encounter with marsh fever (malaria) in April 1824.

First Cycle: 1828-1848

With a more stable position for the rebels following the capture of the fortress of Lepanto in 1824, Byron returns to Britain in 1828. His influence amongst the upper classes results in an official (if unwilling) pledge of British support and troops by Wellington to the Greek cause. As a result of this, the Greek nation declares a strengthened independence in 1831.

The UK holds onto the Protectorate of the Ionian Islands.

A pro-British Greek King - Leopold of Saxe-Coburg [uncle of Queen Victoria] – marries a French Orleanist Princess (Louise-Marie d’Orleans) [daughter of King Louis-Felipe I of France].

A French Orleanist (Louis-Charles, Duc d’Nemours (1814-96)) becomes monarch of the Belgian state declared in 1830 [second son of King Louis-Felipe I of France]. He later marries Victoria Saxe-Coburg (1822-57) [cousin of Queen Victoria]

[These are two strong marriages, which cement the British and French royal dynasties in the process of creating two new monarchies]

Orleanist France survives 1848 revolutions with the abdication of King Louis-Philippe I in favour of his more liberal and popular son; Ferdinand-Philippe (1810-71).

Greece in the process of modernizing, industrializes, and anglicizes – has its eye on colonial power status.

With an Orleanist monarch, from 1838 Belgium has become a perpetual battlefield between Dutch and French forces. Belgian government in exile?

Pan-Hellenic Movement, propagated by Byron and his contemporaries, gives an additional boost to neo-classicism and romanticism in the arts, but is it at the expense of rationalism?

OK, this is much better. Remember that pan-Hellenism is based upon an idea of Greece that is totally manufactured. I suspect if Byron hadn't died he would have gone home in disgust not long afterwards.

But, Greece had some shipping resources and ready sources of investment in the Ottoman Empire, where Greek merchants were well-established in the large Ottomans cities.

Also, without all those troublesome constitutional limitations that he had in Belgium, our friend Leopold can far more nakedly use the state to support his colonial ambitions. What remains is to determine WHERE. Africa is the most obvious target, so perhaps some trading enclaves can be established there, leading later to colonies.

Perhaps everyone else can suggest some other possibilities. One idea is that Leopold may try to purchase territories from powers in financial difficulties...
 
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