Part XVI: The 1936 Election
Part XVI: The 1936 Election
As polls closed, Garner held hope against hope, hoping that the polls were wrong, hoping that Long's campaign wouldn't get the estimated 15% that he would need to throw the election to Hoover, hoping that the relatively negative campaign he had performed in the past weeks wouldn't injure him.
The results from the east started coming in. Vermont of course was immediately called for Hoover, as were New Hampshire and Maine. Much of the Northeast followed suit. The south was locked down by Garner, with only Louisiana breaking the grain, narrowly going for Long. Garner didn't take that lightly: that meant, in his mind, that Garner's popularity had eroded significantly in a solid Democratic state.
Garner's first big break was when Ohio was called for him. It had been projected as a swing state for some time, and it seemed that there weren't enough Long voters there to throw the state to Hoover. Minnesota followed Ohio, similarly voting for Garner. No small part of that was the fact that their native son, Attorney General Pierce Butler had finally agreed to campaign for Garner in the final weeks.
The west coast voted, and all three states went for the former President. The upper Rockies states of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana remained very close. Those states had few electoral votes however. The election would be decided soon enough.
The tipping-point state was Illinois. With the popular vote close enough that no candidate could claim a popular mandate, they relied on that state to give them a majority in the electoral college. Illinois voted for the victor by a margin of about half a point: 45.8% to 45.3%, with Long winning about 9% there.
In a stunning upset, Democrats across the country celebrated.
Long's grassroots campaign that was largely rural-based wasn't enough to give Hoover the election. Future research would show that that had been Long's strategy: give the GOP the White House, ruin the economy, and allow Long to return in 1940 to win in a landslide.
It appeared that the polls had been wrong, as well. Conservatives had been comfortable voting for the Incumbent; he was a moderate on social and economic issues. The pollsters projected that Hoover would win the conservative vote. Garner also won immense majorities of the rural vote and the votes of the economically recovering, as he had created the Great Reform, giving them jobs, prosperity, et cetera. Polls had reached out to middle-to-upper class urbanites, because they were the ones who gained poll materials in the form of magazines, et cetera. However, these people were not likely to vote for Garner in the first place.
It seemed that Hoover's selection of Fish as his running mate was a mistake: the Great Reform was popular, and Fish was most famous for taking the most popular part of the Great Reform to court. Also, when it came to running mates, Long's selection of Borah stole away the progressive GOP vote from the former President.
Pundits also were wrong about how much of a spoiler Long would be. Research done in the late 1990's by Professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas and future GOP Congressman Barry Dunham showed that out of Long's 11.2% of the vote, 69.5% of those would have voted for Garner, while 20% of them would have voted for Hoover. 10.5% of Long's voters would not have cast a ballot that year. That meant that if Long had not entered the race, Garner would have secured 52.1% of the vote, a solid majority. Hoover would have received 46.2% of the vote. Overall, it seemed that the average voter was fine with entrusting Garner with four more years. Hoover, while respected, simply was not trusted with what occurred during his four year tenure as President.
Herbert Hoover withdrew from public life after a quiet concession, while Democrats planned for the next four years with but one electoral worry: most of their electoral votes had come from the south. All of their non-Southern states were decided by within 7 points of the vote.
As polls closed, Garner held hope against hope, hoping that the polls were wrong, hoping that Long's campaign wouldn't get the estimated 15% that he would need to throw the election to Hoover, hoping that the relatively negative campaign he had performed in the past weeks wouldn't injure him.
The results from the east started coming in. Vermont of course was immediately called for Hoover, as were New Hampshire and Maine. Much of the Northeast followed suit. The south was locked down by Garner, with only Louisiana breaking the grain, narrowly going for Long. Garner didn't take that lightly: that meant, in his mind, that Garner's popularity had eroded significantly in a solid Democratic state.
Garner's first big break was when Ohio was called for him. It had been projected as a swing state for some time, and it seemed that there weren't enough Long voters there to throw the state to Hoover. Minnesota followed Ohio, similarly voting for Garner. No small part of that was the fact that their native son, Attorney General Pierce Butler had finally agreed to campaign for Garner in the final weeks.
The west coast voted, and all three states went for the former President. The upper Rockies states of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana remained very close. Those states had few electoral votes however. The election would be decided soon enough.
The tipping-point state was Illinois. With the popular vote close enough that no candidate could claim a popular mandate, they relied on that state to give them a majority in the electoral college. Illinois voted for the victor by a margin of about half a point: 45.8% to 45.3%, with Long winning about 9% there.
In a stunning upset, Democrats across the country celebrated.
Long's grassroots campaign that was largely rural-based wasn't enough to give Hoover the election. Future research would show that that had been Long's strategy: give the GOP the White House, ruin the economy, and allow Long to return in 1940 to win in a landslide.
It appeared that the polls had been wrong, as well. Conservatives had been comfortable voting for the Incumbent; he was a moderate on social and economic issues. The pollsters projected that Hoover would win the conservative vote. Garner also won immense majorities of the rural vote and the votes of the economically recovering, as he had created the Great Reform, giving them jobs, prosperity, et cetera. Polls had reached out to middle-to-upper class urbanites, because they were the ones who gained poll materials in the form of magazines, et cetera. However, these people were not likely to vote for Garner in the first place.
It seemed that Hoover's selection of Fish as his running mate was a mistake: the Great Reform was popular, and Fish was most famous for taking the most popular part of the Great Reform to court. Also, when it came to running mates, Long's selection of Borah stole away the progressive GOP vote from the former President.
Pundits also were wrong about how much of a spoiler Long would be. Research done in the late 1990's by Professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas and future GOP Congressman Barry Dunham showed that out of Long's 11.2% of the vote, 69.5% of those would have voted for Garner, while 20% of them would have voted for Hoover. 10.5% of Long's voters would not have cast a ballot that year. That meant that if Long had not entered the race, Garner would have secured 52.1% of the vote, a solid majority. Hoover would have received 46.2% of the vote. Overall, it seemed that the average voter was fine with entrusting Garner with four more years. Hoover, while respected, simply was not trusted with what occurred during his four year tenure as President.
Herbert Hoover withdrew from public life after a quiet concession, while Democrats planned for the next four years with but one electoral worry: most of their electoral votes had come from the south. All of their non-Southern states were decided by within 7 points of the vote.
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