"In politics nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."-F.D.R.

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Seriously? You just abandoned your old TL.



Yup. I wanna take another go.


So what's the gimmick with this one?



Well, I just want to produce a more polished, professional TL, one that I can be proud of and actually finish.


Will you be using wikiboxes? They're all the rage you know.



I'm not great at them, but I love them and I know they enhance the TL a lot, so I will use them sparingly.


Lastly, you know that you're starting this at the end of a break and exams are less than 4 months away now?



Yep, wish me luck.​


What’s the POD? Is it overused?



You’ll find out the POD soon enough. It might be a little overused, but I’m gonna do it anyway.


LOL. Have fun.



Right!​
 
Part I: 1932 Election and Giuseppe Zangara

Part I: The 1932 Election and Giuseppe Zangara

It was clear as 1932 came to an end that the Republicans’ control over the government was about to end with it. They had held power in some form or another since the end of the Civil War, but the ineffectual President Herbert Hoover had failed the country, doing nothing as it and the world descended into poverty. The GOP had almost lost Congress in the 1930 midterms, and practically everyone knew that the Congress and Presidency would definitely go blue this time around. These feelings were soon confirmed as the Democrats nominated for their presidential ticket in 1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt and John Nance Garner. Roosevelt was the electorally battle-hardened Governor of New York, who was controversy free and charismatic, and Garner was the leading Southern Conservative of the time. Roosevelt had also been the Democrat’s VP nominee in 1920. The Democrats couldn’t have gotten a better ticket had they raised Washington and Lincoln from the dead and ran them. The Democrats’ spirits were miles high, while the Republicans moped. Hoover’s position in the race was so bad, one Illinois man wrote to him, “vote for Roosevelt and make it unanimous.”

On November 8, 1932, the nation voted, and it was a resounding landslide for Roosevelt, who was swept into office with a little more than 57% of the vote. Hoover was left with about 40%, and narrowly carried some states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, like Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania, which was the only electorally rich state that went for him. Also falling into Hoover’s column were the traditionally Republican states of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Hoover won all of his states except for Maine and Vermont by margins less than 3 percentage points. Furthermore, analysts noted that the coalition of states that had propelled Roosevelt to victory was unique, with traditionally Republican states voting for him in landslide margins. This coalition was championed by Roosevelt and the Democrats, who now had even more leverage in Congress, and nothing could stop them now. At least, nothing they knew of.

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Giuseppe Zangara was a little known Italian immigrant who lived in Miami and worked various odd jobs who likely would have been forgotten to history were it not for the events of February 15, 1933.

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That morning, Roosevelt and the mayor of Chicago, Anton Cermak made a stop in Miami at Bayfront Park. As Roosevelt was speaking, Zangara reached the front of the crowd[1] with a gun he had bought recently, and pulled the trigger. Shot at pointblank range, Roosevelt was mortally wounded. He was rushed to the closest hospital, but passed away en route. According to Cermak, his last words were to him, saying, “I’m glad it was me instead of you.”[2] Zangara was captured at the scene of the crime and was executed by the state of Florida on July 2, 1933 after a long investigation of the murder, but more on that later.

All of a sudden, John Nance Garner was the President-Elect of the United States. On February 20, 1933, at Roosevelt’s funeral in Hyde Park, New York, Garner gave an address that marked what was to come in his presidency.

“My friend Franklin Roosevelt had a great vision for our nation. He wanted to restore our country by making America the greatest nation in the world again. He wanted to restore trust in our government and make our government truly become public servants again. He wanted to make us all of us, the rich, the low, all Americans, prosper economically. Though we agreed on these causes, we often disagreed on how to accomplish these. Regardless, I will do my best to fulfill the trust that the people placed in Franklin D. Roosevelt. I have been placed in power, and I promise that every action in the Oval Office shall be in respect of Roosevelt’s American dream.”

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Now, there were 19 days until the inauguration of Garner to the Presidency. First and foremost on his agenda was the selection and congressional approval of the new Cabinet.


[1]: this is the POD, with Zangara shooting from the front of the crowd rather than from the back

[2]: it is presumed that these were the words that Cermak said to FDR before he died in OTL
 
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“My friend Franklin Roosevelt had a great vision for our nation. He wanted to restore our country by making America the greatest nation in the world again. He wanted to restore trust in our government and make our government truly become public servants again. He wanted to make us all of us, the rich, the low, white, black, all of us, prosper economically. Though we agreed on these causes, we often disagreed on how to accomplish these. Regardless, I will do my best to fulfill the trust that the people placed in Franklin D. Roosevelt. I have been placed in power, and I promise that every action in the Oval Office shall be in respect of Roosevelt’s American dream.

Now, there were 19 days until the inauguration of Garner to the Presidency. First and foremost on his agenda was the selection and congressional approval of the new Vice President-Elect.​

Two things: there was no mechanism for A President to appoint a VP at that time, and I don't think Garner would included the part about race in his speech. I don't know of his racial views, but I doubt if he was even a moderate that he'd mention blacks in a speech.
 
Two things: there was no mechanism for A President to appoint a VP at that time, and I don't think Garner would included the part about race in his speech. I don't know of his racial views, but I doubt if he was even a moderate that he'd mention blacks in a speech.
I'll edit the race part. Also, how then would the vice-president bit be fixed, seeing as Garner was still the President-elect and hadn't even been sworn in? Would the spot just be vacant?
 
I wonder if Garner will announce a bank holiday. That was an astounding success, which ended the banking crisis less than a month after FDR's inauguration, but that idea may have died ITTL with him....

Oh boy. African Americans will be firm GOP this time around with Garner's views

Without the New Deal and FDR's outreach, yeah, they probably will be.
 
But how? I don't think anyone could have ended the banking crisis as quickly as OTL without the bank holiday.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/john-nance-garner-as-president-in-1933.355901/

Garner was a big supporter of deposit insurance (much more than FDR), so you will definitely get that (which was probably the single most useful New Deal program.) He also co-sponsored the Garner-Wagner relief bill in 1932 (a $2 billion dollar public works bill that was vetoed by Hoover), so you'll also get large scale public works spending from President Garner as well. He was enthusiastic about securities regulation and the Public Utility Holding Company Act, so you will see that legislation. And he supported the Rural Electrification Act (which was the baby of his protege Sam Rayburn), so you'll definitely see that as well.

Garner was skeptical about the NRA (he didn't think it would be workable and feared it would lead to cartelization) but indicated he was willing to see it tried, so he won't veto it if it is passed. I've never been able to find his views on the Agricultural Adjustment Act, but given that Garner was a Wilsonian progressive from rural Texas, its very difficult to believe he wouldn't have supported something like it. I also don't know his view on the TVA, but OTL he helped pushed the TVA legislation through Congress, and Garner certainly wasn't afraid to go against the President when he disagreed with him, so that suggests Garner was at least neutral on it. And as for the Social Security Act, I don't know what Garner's views on it were, but OTL it passed by veto proof margins in both houses of Congress, so even if Garner opposes it he probably won't be able to stop it. (Though I very much doubt Garner would veto a bill with as much popular support as Social Security.)

Thus most of the New Deal still happens under President Garner. The only major New Deal bill that is questionable is the Wagner Act, and even that might get through. (OTL the Wagner Act passed by an overwhelming majority in both houses, so it might be able to get enacted over a presidential veto, though unlike the Social Security Act, I think Garner will veto this bill unless it is majorly watered down.)

Garner's relations with labor will be bad. (He really hated sit-down strikes.) This will probably lead to significant labor militancy in Garner's second term.

The economy will probably do somewhat worse under Garner than under Roosevelt since Garner probably won't spend as much on public works as Roosevelt did and will likely raise taxes much more than Roosevelt did in order to pay for his programs. (Garner did take balanced budgets seriously.) Still, Garner will obviously be doing more than Hoover did and will have some definite achievements going into the 1936 election (the banking system will be stabilized, the securities market will be regulated, Social Security will be enacted, and millions of people will be getting jobs through government programs), so he should be able to win a comfortable reelection.

Garner's second term will likely be rocky due to increased labor unrest. A Republican winning in 1940 is a real possibility.

As for Garner's foreign policy OTL he opposed recognition of the Soviet Union, so that probably doesn't happen. He seems to have been a non-interventionist in Latin American affairs (he advised FDR to not get involved in Cuba when President Machado was overthrown), so likely nothing happens on that front. He had favored Philippine independence since 1902, so that definitely goes forward. He hated the Smoot-Hawley tariff, so we probably see him pushing for tariff reciprocity. He opposed the embargo clause in the Neutrality Acts (though he probably won't be any more successful than Roosevelt in keeping that from being enacted.) And perhaps most significantly, he was very suspicion of Japan. Garner was already advocating cutting off the export of petroleum, scrap metal, and war material to Japan in 1939, so he will probably take a much harder line against Japan than even FDR did. I don't know if it would be possible for Garner to get an embargo against Japan enacted that early, but if he can then we could see the Pacific War start a good year earlier.
 
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Sneak peek at tomorrow's update:

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Secretary-designate of the Interior Rexford Tugwell defends himself at his confirmation hearing
 
Part II: Garner's Cabinet

Part II: Garner’s Cabinet

Garner had about two weeks to vet a cabinet before he assumed the Presidency, and Democratic operatives warned him that it would be prudent to get the job early. Garner had never faced a project of this magnitude before. His memoir, Happy Days Are Here Again, published years later in 1950, revealed that Garner was nearly clueless on how to build a working administration. In the House of Representatives, he had the heads of Committees, not to mention the entire Democratic Caucus who would answer to him. This was Garner’s first ever executive decision. He was utterly alone as the country still reeled from FDR’s assassination. If he failed at this, then he would cripple his Presidency from the offset, a position which, in his view, rightfully wasn’t even his. The stakes were high. Garner, therefore, began to assemble a group of advisers who he believed in. They consisted of his allies from his time in the legislature, and more importantly, Franklin Roosevelt’s esteemed “Brain Trust.”

Garner’s hope was that this unity would tie together the more traditional (moderate, Wilsonian progressive, and conservative) wing(s) of the party with the more unknown branch of the party, which included those activists and scholars who had backed Roosevelt and built up his policies behind the scenes. Garner fought for party unity very heavily during those few weeks as President-Elect. Again in his memoir, Garner writes of a conversation between him and the man destined to be his successor as House Speaker: Henry T. Rainey:
I implored Rainey to focus on one major element during his Speakership: keeping the party in line and voting for my administration’s bills as much as possible, so we could override the threat of a coalition against us. Rainey replied that it wasn’t possible to keep a Caucus that large voting as a monolith, that there would be defections, that it would be impossible to get Clifton Woodrum (a progressive) and Howard Smith (the leader of the anti-administration movement during my term) to agree on the position of the sun in the sky, much less on any key policy issue. I looked Rainey right in the eyes and told him that was why I was reaching out to Roosevelt’s allies. “There’s no time for careful deliberation right now. To fix the goddamn country, we gotta reach out to everyone who can help us.” I then told Rainey to get to work unifying the party, and he obliged.

To Garner, the most critical Cabinet position at the time was Secretary of the Treasury. That would be his first nomination. The Brain Trust suggested William Woodin, a New York City industrial magnate, and Henry Morgenthau, another NYC businessman, for the pick. Even though both men were impressive, Garner took into consideration Woodin’s old age and poor health and Morgenthau’s lack of experience in the treasury and rejected both in favor of a tentative Roosevelt ally, Al Smith.

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Al Smith immediately after his nomination

The Brain Trust was less than happy with Garner’s pick, as they felt that Smith’s economic views were too conservative. Garner recognized the dissatisfaction and announced on February 25 his next nominee: Rexford Tugwell for the Department of the Interior. Tugwell was a personal friend and ally of FDR’s, and he accepted the nomination with pleasure, promising to inject some of Roosevelt’s policy views directly into his job. Garner also announced that day his pick for Agriculture Secretary, Henry Wallace, which also appeased the Brain Trust.

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The President-elect next nominated for Secretary of War a Republican progressive who had opposed the FDR/Garner ticket, publisher and Major Frank Knox. Republicans were satisfied, as were moderates and Republican progressives who weren't fully comfortable with the movement that Roosevelt had started. Garner's attempt to forge unity was working, save the selection of Smith as Treasury Secretary. However, Garner saw no problem with his nominations and continued at a rapid pace. Next, on the 26th, Garner nominated someone to appeal to conservatives: Supreme Court Justice Pierce Butler (a Democrat) as Attorney General. In the upcoming years, this nomination would be both a blessing and a curse.

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Garner was interested in appointing his protege, Sam Rayburn, as Secretary of Labor. Every one of his advisers agreed to his pick, and he was only an hour away from announcing the nomination when SCOTUS Justice and Roosevelt ally Louis Brandeis met Garner in his office in the Capitol and recommended that Garner pick Brain Trust member and crusader for labor rights Frances Perkins. Garner was virulently opposed to this. He'd already written a speech. He'd made a decision, and he wanted to stick with that decision. The announcement was scheduled to be in an hour. Brandeis believed that Rayburn wasn't experienced or dedicated enough to be Secretary. The argument between Garner and Brandeis continued for another twenty minutes, until Brandeis left angrily. An hour later and half an hour later than planned, Garner nominated Frances Perkins to be Secretary of Labor. He had realized that he didn't want to antagonize some of his tentative allies, especially Brandeis, who he needed the support of on the Supreme Court. Assuming Perkins' nomination went as planned, she would be the first female Cabinet member, breaking an enormous precedent.
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Frances Perkins, Secretary-designate of Labor


Regardless, two Cabinet members, Smith and Perkins, and the controversy surrounding their nominations, had already caused a small rift between Garner and some of his most important advisers. Garner now had two days left to finish his nominations before preparations for the Inauguration began in earnest. For Garner and his agenda, it was full speed ahead.


 
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